Liberals, Conservatives in a dead heat, poll suggests (Canada)

[Screaming Lord Byron]

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040604.elipsospoll0604/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

The Conservative Party is in a dead heat with the Liberals, putting the two parties in position to form a minority government on June 28, a poll suggests.

With 31-per-cent support of decided voters, Stephen Harper's Tories are now 1 point behind the Liberals, which fell to 32 per cent, according to Ipsos-Reid. The poll was conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV News as the campaign reaches the end of week two.

Nationally, the Liberals have fallen 2 points while the Tories have risen 1 point since the last Ipsos-Reid poll released last weekend. The NDP rose 1 point to 17 per cent.

NDP at 23% in Ontario. Cons lead in Ontario. Greens at 6%, predicted to win 2 seats.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1086382688130_81791888/?hub=TopStories

Despite being at 23% in Ontario, the NDP is still only predicted to win 17-21 seats. Talk about skewed.

[Minstrel Boy]

1. The constant under-estimation of potential NDP seats is

either laziness or malice. The NDP vote is the most efficient of all the parties, and constantly outperforms its popular vote. (Yet, ironically, the NDP is the advocate of prop rep.)

23% in Ontario could mean 17 seats in Ontario alone.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. It's a bullshit prediction conjured by a charlatan.

Here's the babble thread on the subject.
http://www.rabble.ca/babble/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=35&t=000150

[Minstrel Boy]

3. Only nine points between the Libs and the NDP in Ontario

brings a whole lot of stuff into play. It's very close to being called a three-way race. Because, of course, it's not only our percentage that matters, but the spread between the parties that determines how many seats we win. So long as neither the Conservatives nor Liberals make a rout of it, we'll do very well with our 23 or so percent.

And very encouraging is the fact the NDP continues to rise, quietly, with every polster (even with Ipsos Reid's fetish for the Greens), and Layton continues to impress (he has the greatest momentum of any leader).

[MrPrax]

4. Libs drop? Can't Imagine why?

The Liberal campaign is a real disaster...

The best TV campaign is by far NDP (Now Communications which ran the MB and SK victories!!)...

The thing that is not being reported however is the widespread voter apathy and anger. Even if people indicate that they will vote for this or that, getting them out is going to be a momumental task

I am working on the Campaign here in SK...

Note to Dems; it will come down to your E-Day efforts, make sure your voters are identified and your zone houses well organized...if your not involved now, then find the time to pitch in on E-Day...esp in the urban swings.

I would hate to read on June 29 that we lost a a few narrow contests simply because of EDay...

[freeforall]

5. I'm seeing a lot of NDP signs in my Edmonton riding

...and quite a few conservative ones as well. Although Edmonton is fairly liberal (we vote for Libs in quite a few in provincial elections), it won't go Liberal in federal elections. I predict conservative, but with a good sprinkling of NDP.

The NDP candidate in my riding was out on the peace march on March 20th this year. He's young and enthusiastic, and I just may give him my vote. I usually vote Liberal, and think Martin would be a good PM, but I also like Layton.

So, I have some more reading to do...

This is Alberta though, so the %$#&*@#$% conservatives will dominate. (I swear you could run a monkey as the conservative candidate here and people would vote for it! Oil country, ya know? Just like another oil state in a country I won't name, LOL.)

[Minstrel Boy]

7. Yesterday when I told a friend the NDP would win at least one seat in

Alberta, he said if that happened, he'd jump off the Bloor Danforth Viaduct. I'm glad for his sake a suicide barrier has recently been erected.

The NDP's polling 16% province-wide, and most of that support is concentrated in Edmonton. The NDP provincial leader, Raj Pannu, holds Edmonton Strathcona, and it's going to send Malcolm Azania to Ottawa.

[freeforall]

10. Minstrel Boy, are you in Edmonton-Strathcona?

That's my riding, and I heard Malcolm speak at the peace march this year. He's a good speaker, and was exhorting us to sign the petition against this "Star Wars Missile Defense," which is a colossal waste of taxpayers' money and just buys in to the US bullshit.

I have to read a bit more about his views. I sure think we need some younger people in government though, and I liked his energy.

I think Edmonton will surprise the rest of the province by voting in a lot of NDP or Liiberal candidates.

LOL! We're waaaaaaay more liberal than Calgary (who lost the friggin' hockey game tonight!!!)

[Minstrel Boy]

11. No, I'm way over here in Toronto Danforth.

I'm just trying to keep my eyes on a bunch of other ridings for which I have great expectations. Edmonton Strathcona's right up there. You have a terrific candidate, and the stars seem to be aligning to get him elected. Good luck!

[Screaming Lord Byron]

8. Are you in Edmonton-Strathcona?

[freeforall]

9. Yep! Edmonton-Strathcona!

How'd you guess?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

13. Your description fitted Malcolm.

I wish him well, but he's still a long shot. Fingers and toes crossed.

[TcAaNnSaTdAiAaFnL]

6. hi, just wondering

what you guys think of the different parties? what they really stand for ect.

I've got my own ideas but I'd like you hear what you all think of them

[daleo]

12. I like Azania, but I will be mighty surprised if he wins

When Jaffer had his riding manager impersonate him on the radio, that was just too much. I hope the people of Edmonton Strathcona send him packing just for that.

And speaking of lying Reform/Alliance/Conservatives, did anyone notice the Jan Wong story about Stephen Harper in the Globe and Mail today? It contained some interesting stuff, that contradicts other published accounts of Harper's background. Mainly:

1 - Jan Wong's story says that Harper graduated from high school in 1979 (she mentions him being in the 1978-79 edition of a high school yearbook), while every other account of his background I found on the web said he graduated in 1978.

2 - Also, her account mentions that he dropped out of U of Toronto in his first year, at Christmas. No other accounts I have found even mention the U of T interlude.

3 - She says he had a brief position as a computer programmer in Edmonton, with Imperial Oil, although she doesn't mention the exact duration or time of the job. Still, the wording seems suggestive of a fairly short time in the job. I would put it at about 1980 if her other information is correct. All the references on the web I have found just make general claims, along the lines "he went to Calgary to work in the oil fields during 1978-81".

I don't want to knock anyone for a few false starts in their late teens and early twenties, but it definitely seems clear to me that his past has had a little cleaning up for the press. Nothing big, but along the lines of resume padding.

Also, when the economy tanked in Alberta, about 1982 things got very difficult. I wonder if he collected UIC around that time, then decided to return to university? That is about how it went for me.

At any rate, there seem to be some contradictions in these accounts.

The Conservative Party homepage does not shed any light on these facts in their little biographical sketch of the leader.