Palace revolt simmers against PM (Canada)

[Minstrel Boy]

Toronto Star, June 8:

The Liberals are in disarray. With polls showing them headed for minority government status — or worse — some party member have quietly begun to organize a campaign to dump Paul Martin after the election.

"If it's a (Liberal) minority, this is happening," said one long-time party organizer. "If it's a minority Conservative government, he's going to have to resign right away."

...

"There's a lot of dissension," says one Scarborough Manley supporter involved in the dump-Martin campaign.

Take, for example, the troubled riding of Brampton-Springdale, northwest of Toronto. Last Sunday, the local Liberal riding association voted overwhelmingly to support New Democratic Party candidate Kathy Pounder against Liberal Ruby Dhalla — a Martin supporter parachuted into that riding by the Prime Minister over the objections of two other candidates who had been organizing for months.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1086603032018&call_pageid=970599109774&col=Columnist969907626796

What a fascinating trainwreck this is turning out to be for Martin. Though it's not surprising to me. Their huge lead looked soft, and given a nudge, would melt away. The scandals, the unpopular provincial Liberal governments, the arrogance (in an interview a few months ago, Martin mused about how he planned to leave office after 10 years or so), the hamfisted treatment of Chretien loyalists, the voter fatigue...well, expecting a fourth consecutive majority government seems a bit much. Plus, as Ed Broadbent said, "Martin's never been tested."

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. Bring back Chretien!!!

[ibegurpard]

2. What are the chances the conservatives could benefit from this?

Did the PC party not merge with some right-wing party recently? This would be very bad indeed.

[Minstrel Boy]

4. The new Conservative Party has jumped to a lead in the polls,

but it's still extremely unlikely to form a majority government.

The Liberals are quick to draw knives on perceived weak leaders. There was nearly a palace coup in the middle of the 1988 election to replace John Turner.

[daleo]

3. If the Tories get a minority

I think their own internal contradictions (social conservatism vs tax cut conservatism) and policy contradictions (deficit, no Quebec representation) will ensure that it didn't last long.

However, it is true that Martin's own coronation and ill treatment of the Chretien, Copps, etc. wings of the party may be coming back to haunt him.

If the Liberals get a minority, it might be the best thing that happens to them, as it would force them to pay more than just lip service to their left/liberal side.

[Spazito]

5. Agree!

It would be the smack in the face the Liberals need without having the extremist Alliance with the power.

[hlthe2b]

6. I'm embarrassed to admit, that I'm only moderately less ignorant

about Canadian politics than the average American.... This would make for a great forum, or at least indepth discussion (complete with playlist and short history/bios). Any of our Canadian buds willing to help with this? I think I've finally started to get a handle on British and Australian pols and parties, but I only know the leading players in Canada. For our younger readers who don't remember the Trudeaus, Mulroneys, Clarks, Campbells of years past nor the difference between the Liberal, Progressive Conservative, COnservative, and National Liberal Parties, could anyone do a summary primer which includes impact on today's politics?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

7. Here's what I think will happen.

Harper wins a majority (deeply unlikely)
The tensions between the PC wing and the Cheryl Gallant 'abortion is the same as Nick Berg getting beheaded' would destroy the party within its first term. We'd all be out on the streets protesting this attempt at a neo-con takeover and they'd be crushed at the next opportunity.

Harper wins a minority (possible)
Who will hold his party up? I suspect it will last as long as the Clark admimistration in 1979. That is, less than a year. The neo-cons will be muzzled.

Martin wins a minority (possible)
Knives out for Paul from his backbenchers, forcing another election within eighteen months.

Martin wins a majority (less likely)
Same as ever, but Martin's poor performance on the campaign trail force him to resign 'for personal reasons' within two years. John Manley or Ken Dryden becomes PM.

[Spazito]

8. Ken Dryden would be awesome!

I don't see that happening, much as I would like it to, given that Dryden has no experience and has yet to be elected to any seat. Miracles do happen on occasions though, lol.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

9. I had heard they were grooming Dryden for high office.

Make of that what you will.
I think the most likely successor to Martin would be an interim leader like McLellan or Goodale, keeping the seat warm for the likes of John Manley.

[Hand]

10. Whatever does happen...

It really looks to me like Martin's going to have a short, unhappy tenure as PM. Classic case of "Be careful what you wish for..."

[whosinpower]

11. What ? no prediction for Layton????????

Wouldn't that be the shock of all shocks.... Canadian voters were so dissillusioned with Liberals, yet still unwilling to endorse right wing Harper....instead went with a minority to the NDP??????

Don't choke just yet - stranger things have happened.

[daleo]

14. Well, there was the Bob Rae election

So, the odd very unexpected thing does happen on occasion.

[TO Kid]

19. Which is why the NDP won't go anywhere

Rae's tenure was an unmitigated disaster- his tax hike on the working poor (I was one at the time) prolonged the recession by at least two years. The problem with the NDP in central Canada is that it's dominated by academics and trade unionists who have lost touch with the real world. The party formed competent governments in Saskatchewan and Manitoba because its roots were with farmers and workers and they seemed to understand what those people cared about. Not so here in Ontario, the Rae Gang (even left-wing broadcasters called them that) were more concerned with social engineering than they were with jobs, eductation and taxes. That's why the Ontario NDP was reduced to 8 seats (of 103) and why they won't win Ontario again in our lifetime.

[daleo]

23. You could say the same about Mulroney and Harper

People were so fed up with Mulroney, that the prospect of another conservative government in the lifetime of anyone born before the year 1990 seemed extremely remote. Yet, here we are contemplating that very possibility, although I would still not bet on it happening. People do forget eventually.

In fact, I was working in the Ontario government at the time, and am inclined to agree that Rae lost some focus regarding the overall interests of the middle and working classes. There was a lot of emphasis on equity, which probably didn't help his wider appeal. I don't really think his policies had much effect on the recession one way or another - that was a world wide event.

Remember, the Conservatives were reduced to 5 seats after Mulroney's two terms (out of about 300), so 8 out of 103 doesn't look half bad. I won a nice bet on that election (Mulroney's I mean), with a friend who was flabbergasted that the country could turn so decisively against Mulroney.

[TrogL]

12. I'd like to see Anne McLellan as PM

She's got the smarts and the experience.

[Canuckistanian]

13. What about coalitions?

Conservative-Bloc?
Liberal-NDP?
Maybe even Liberal-Bloc?

[Minstrel Boy]

15. Maybe even

Liberal-Conservative?

Longshot maybe, but they do have much common ground, and if a very weak minority results for either, they may prefer to make accomodation with each other than with the NDP or Bloc.

[KamaAina]

16. Are Canadians really so anti-Martin that they would help Bush*?

Especially after "Mr. Anzar"'s humiliating defeat in Spain, a new, pro-Bush* Tory government right here in North America would be the answer to Bush*'s (phony) prayers.

Is that what Canadians want? I don't believe that for a second. What could possibly be so bad about Martin that they would even contemplate this? Does he eat roast babies, like Howard Dean? </sarcasm>

[Screaming Lord Byron]

17. People are tired of the Liberals. They've been in office 11 years.

Given that most people think in an either/or dichotomy, they go straight to the Cons as the alternative.

[Minstrel Boy]

18. Been watching some streeters on CPAC

and the people complain about deteriorating health care, arrogance, bad budgets and so on, and sigh, "Well, I guess I'll be voting Conservative this time." :crazy:

These were a couple of New Brunswick and Ontario ridings in which the NDP have never done well. But this oughta be the time, if ever, for some mouse to squeak up and say "Hey, wait a second - why do we keep electing cats?"

[Zhade]

21. I love that expression!

Very nicely done.

So, what's your prediction? Can the mice be reminded that there are cats about? Who will bell the conservative kitties?

[Frederic Bastiat]

20. You forget the constant attacks from both the Left and Right

The Conservatives will for the next government given if their deal with the Bloc goes through. Oh well at least the NDP will have a few more seats right?

[CHIMO]

22. Left, No Left

Copps, others hit Liberal campaign trail

The prime minister, whose party's once-commanding lead in opinion polls has vanished, is relying on Chrétien warhorses such as Sheila Copps, Stephane Dion and John Manley to get the party back on track.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1086689014049&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

Watch the sparks now with the heart of the Rat Pack involved.

[AP]

24. Why isn't the news about left and center left parties getting 69% of the..

votes according to polls?

Why do the spin this as some kind of vicotry for Tories?

[daleo]

25. With first past the post voting

The Tories might do well if the vote splits among the centre/left go their way. Another argument for electoral reform, moving towards some kind of proportional representation. I have long thought so, even when the vote splitting was hurting the right.

I guess the corporate media wants to emphasize the horse race aspect of things. Also, they probably wouldn't mind the upper class tax breaks that would come from a conservative victory.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

26. Because the media is heavily right-wing and has a vested interest

in a Harper victory.