Kerry Barely Over Bush Nationally

[struggle4progress]

Massachusetts senator John Kerry has a slight advantage in the United States presidential race, according to a poll by American Research Group. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee in a two-man race, while 46 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the survey, Kerry holds a one per cent lead over Bush. Three per cent of respondents would vote for Nader.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3013

Campaign polls' mixed messages
Three new presidential polls yesterday sent conflicting messages — one showed Democrat John Kerry with a slim but growing lead over President Bush, another showed him ahead but slipping, and a third showed a tie.
Kerry led by 49 percent to Bush's 43 percent, with independent Ralph Nader at 5 percent, in a Gallup poll conducted last Thursday and Friday. Two weeks earlier, the same poll showed a dead heat.
Kerry led Bush by 44 percent to 42 percent — a statistical tie — with Nader at 3 percent in a Zogby International poll conducted Tuesday through Saturday. Three weeks ago, Kerry had a five-point lead in the Zogby poll.
Those polls were conducted before the D-Day memorial and before Ronald Reagan's death, but a Rasmussen poll completed Monday night found Bush and Kerry tied at 45 percent.
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/22616.htm

Race Tightens in Battleground States, Poll Shows
The latest poll numbers show a slight improvement for President Bush, but if the election were held today, Sen. John F. Kerry would win, pollster John Zogby said.
Based on interactive polls conducted June 1-6 in battleground states, Kerry would defeat Bush by an Electoral College tally of 296-242, Zogby Interactive said in a press release dated Tuesday. "However," the press release added, "races in several states are simply too close to call."
Zogby noted that two weeks ago, Kerry held a bigger, 102-vote lead in the Electoral College tally -- 320-218.
<snip>
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=%5CPolitics%5Carchive%5C200406%5CPOL20040609a.html

Kerry boosts lead over W - poll
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry widened his lead over President Bush - 49% to 43% - in the past two weeks, a Gallup Organization poll found.
Kerry, 60, a four-term Massachusetts senator, leads Bush, 57, among registered voters who say they are likely to cast ballots in the November election, in Gallup's poll conducted June 3-6. Independent candidate Ralph Nader drew support from 5%.
Kerry extended his margin from a May 21-23 poll in which he had 47% to Bush's 46% in a three-way race.
<snip>
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/story/201061p-173517c.html

Kerry Keeps Advantage In Iowa
Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of Iowa in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 41 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3011

Kerry Still On Top In Wisconsin
Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of Iowa in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 41 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3015

New Jersey With Kerry In 2004
Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of New Jersey in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 39 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3004

Maine Backs Kerry Over Bush
Massachusetts senator John Kerry would carry the state of Maine in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Critical Insights published in the Bangor Daily News. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 39 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3007

Bush Remains On Top In Arkansas
George W. Bush would carry the state of Arkansas in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 51.2 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 43.5 per cent would support prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3002

And a local newspaper poll:

Poll: Edwards Right VP Pick
Just more than 60 percent of the respondents to our poll say they would like to see presumptive Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry select U.S. Sen. John Edwards as his running mate.
<snip>
The charismatic Edwards would surely energize a campaign that some critics label listless. Edwards demonstrated his campaign prowess during the primary as he overcame long odds to become the last man standing against Kerry. He is handsome, affable, offers an easy smile and is knowledgeable on the issues.
<snip>
http://www.robesonian.com/articles/2004/06/09/news/editorials/editorial01.txt

[ramapo]

1. Kerry has a lot of work to do

My family poll tells me that Kerry better get something going. My wife, who always votes Dem but really doesn't get that involved in the day-to-day that we follow here, says that Kerry has little chance of beating Bush because he's shown her nothing.

She hasn't seen or heard anything that would motivate the voter on the fence or get the turned-off voters to tune in.

I used to think the same until I really say Kerry in action during primary season and I developed a more favorable opinion. However Kerry still has a maddening habit of equivicating (or at least seeming to).

The point is if Kerry doesn't do much for a natural supporter then he will not be playing well to the average voter.

[Beaker]

4. Kerry is a lot like Gore in one respect-

He has no "connection" to the everyman...he comes across as an elitist and perhaps a bit smug. He talks in senate speak, with the cadence and excitement of a hypnotist.

He should be miles ahead by now, based on what the lil'dictator has been up to...but he obviously ain't.

it's depressing as hell.

[lancdem]

18. No, Kerry should not be miles ahead by now

Clinton was not miles ahead in 1992, and Reagan wasn't in 1980. And both of them were facing incumbents with approval ratings even worse than Bush's.

BTW, Rasmussen has Kerry up by 2 today.

[Beaker]

30. in case you hadn't noticed...

this isn't 1992, and Kerry isn't Clinton...not by a lo-o-o-o-ng shot.

[Lou_C]

26. Bush does?

Bush has a connection with the media...he owns them!

[Beaker]

29. yes, he does...he's one of them.

the guy is a moron- he had a "c" average at yale, but since he was a legacy student, that equates to probably a D- or even F average - which would magically become C's upon appeal.

[drdtroit]

9. Ummm...

"She hasn't seen or heard anything that would motivate the voter on the fence or get the turned-off voters to tune in."

How about the fact that GW is a murdering madman that the entire planet hates and us along with him, how about that for something to "hear". My God!

[xchrom]

11. see your comments are about george

and they're talking about kerry.
americans have a bad habit of not voting -- kerry needs to get excited -- get people excited.
it's not about george -- in this case.

[wrate]

37. He needs Edwards

As far as connecting to people he has everything Kerry lacks. Kerry seems like a great statesman but his public speaking is bad, bad, bad.

[Lorien]

43. Exactly

just about every Dem I know feels the same way as Mad as Hell's wife-except for those that actually despise Kerry, but might hold their nose and vote for him anyway. Kerry was one of my top three picks in the primaries-that is, until I saw him speak in person. He made Gore look entertaining and charismatic by comparison, and he just had a sleazy quality about him that really turned me off (not as sleazy as *, of course) I'll vote for him, I'll work for his horrid campaign, but I sure as hell don't like the guy.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

10. I hate to sound ugly, but you and your family should realize by now...

...that the captive mainstream media is not going to let Kerry show much of anything. I will say that the press is smelling blood in the water when it comes to the FratBoy...he's been slammed almost daily now with what appears to be an endless line of bombshells. Under those conditions, why give the NeoCons any ammunition by having Kerry say TOO much?

Additionally, you and your family need to understand that the major goal this year is to get the FratBoy Fuhrer out of the White House. That's it. Period. Nothing else should have ANY greater priority.

One last comment...if the fence-sitters are STILL confused about who should get their vote, then I personally find their decision-making ability to be more than a little suspect.

Oh, by the way...would indictments of the FratBoy and his NeoCon master, Dick, make any difference in the coming election? The Plame case could get VERY interesting over the next couple of months.

[xchrom]

13. i wouldn't count on those indictments

that would be like counting on the weatherman.
and i'm going to repeat myself -- americans don't vote. and there are a whole bunch of americans who don't feel particularly threatened by george -- as long as he leaves them in relative peace -- and lets them drive suv's guilt free, they could care.

[ramapo]

16. The problem's not my family

We'll all be voting for Kerry.

The problem is Kerry. If a basically non-political Kerry supporter thinks Kerry's showing nothing to win their vote, then Kerry's not going to be winning over many Bush supporters/fence sitters/apathetic majority.

Kerry should have learned from Gore's mistakes, not duplicate them.

I'm certainly not writing Kerry off. It's early and he may just be biding time (I hope so). But I do worry.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. No, the "problem" isn't Kerry...the "problem" is actually the handfull...

...of posters who, when faced with polls and/or reports that fail to make them personally happy, either go into the old "the sky is falling" routine, or start slamming Kerry for what they believe to be "inactivity".

And then there are those that just enjoy slamming Kerry for any reason, real or manufactured.

By the way...which of Gore's "mistakes" do you see Kerry repeating? Is it the "mistake" of not controlling the press? Is it the "mistake" of having stories told about him that weren't true? Is it the "mistake" of having "supporters" that bashed him on a daily basis almost as badly as the NeoCons did? Or was it the "mistake" I recently read on this board where "Gore deserved to lose because he didn't fight hard enough for the recount"?

[ramapo]

25. Reality can be ugly

I'm happy Kerry is basically even with Bush. However given the piss-poor job that Bush has done on everything from the economy to Iraq, not to mention the bad jokes that are his environmental and energy policies, plus a complete inability to articulate an idea, I had hoped that Kerry would be in a stronger position today.

Al Gore let himself be defined by the Bush campaign early on. Kerry is being defined as a dull, kind of wishy-washy, elitist.

The Al Gore we see today is a far cry from the one that ran for president. Today we see passion and conviction from Gore. I believe he would've been better off had he let a bit of that leak out during the 2000 campaign.

Kerry certainly showed some sparks during the primary season. He really needs to get some interest going.

I'm sure he's smart enough to know all this, that this is part of the plan. It is early but I fear Kerry being caricatured and defined by Bush and the media and then having to fight that caricature.

That will be his fault.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

31. Sorry, but Gore was defined by the captive mainstream media...

...that utilized false reporting and and rigged polls. Sound familiar?

You know the old saying, don't you? Fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice, shame on me.

Are you going to be one of the folks that gets fooled twice, or are you going to be able to see these press reports and polls for what they really are?

[geek tragedy]

23. Think marathon, not sprint

Kerry hasn't even kicked it into high gear yet--the public's mind doesn't focus on the race itself for another couple of months.

[TankLV]

36. He's doing just fine - let the rrain wreck happen - get out of the way.

The whore media strike again - if the numbers were reversed, the headline would be:

FANTASTICALLY POPULAR PRESIDENT OVERWHELMINGLY LEADS SINKING KERRY CAMPAIGN

I could bet on it!

[4_Legs_Good]

2. Wow! The mother of all poll threads! Thanks!!!

This is a real horserace here. I'm hoping that Kerry *will* break ahead once he starts really campaigning. Right now he's stagnating, IMO, but I expect he has a plan.

He better!

david

[CWebster]

3. After all the scandals and this botched mess Bush has made

It should be a no-brainer. Bush stole the presidency and it was downhill from there--and Kerry can't get past a dead heat?

For us all, that is a tragedy.

[Tempest]

5. Kerry is a late bloomer in all his campaigns

Kerry has been elected to office many times after running campaigns late in the process.

This is nothing to worry about.

Don't forget, Kerry isn't rolling in the dough.

And campaigns cost money, lots of it.

[CWebster]

7. Kerry is the richest man in the senate

He would be rolling in dough if he had something to sell.

Anyway hope you are right and your words don't come back to haunt you.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[maxsolomon]

6. Edwards will add the charm factor

They have not yet begun to fight. Let the summer heat up.

[LondonAmerican]

8. Kerry needs to give people a reason to vote for him

beyond his simply not being Bush. That might work at DU but not in the rest of the country.

Telling us that he will pull our troops OUT of Iraq would be a good start.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

12. Lots of knee-jerk reactions to polls that mean little or nothing...

...until we get into the home-stretch.

Personally, I'm beginning to believe that some people just like bashing Kerry. Gee, now that's a revelation, isn't it?

[CWebster]

14. holding his feet to the fire

and nothing more.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

15. And just HOW are you PERSONALLY holding Kerry's feet to the...

...fire?? How is any poster on DU managing to do that?

Give me a break.

[CWebster]

17. Ooops sorry

Didn't mean to get out of line.

[sangh0]

32. No, you meant

to avoid the question

[Media_Lies_Daily]

33. Ooooo!! There's a REAL snappy comeback.

[Tempest]

28. This guy is apparently one of the Kerry bashers

I guess he wants to see Bush re-elected.

There can be no other reason for it.

[capriccio]

19. The green votes are in

The dollars, that is...and Kerry's raised a record number of them and that's what this stage of the election has been all about. If you look carefully at his spade work in the swing states you'll see that this so-called "listless campaign" has been rather effective at doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing--putting things in order for the big showdown--which will result in a Kerry victory (words to watch on election night: stunning and sweeping).

[Media_Lies_Daily]

22. Bingo.

[struggle4progress]

24. I hope Kerry's "green votes" aren't all in yet!

That reminds me: it's time to contribute again ....

[Media_Lies_Daily]

34. Plenty more where that came from....I'm beginning to think that quite...

...a few major corporations have started to back away from FratBoy and his merry little band of nasty NeoCons.

[DinahMoeHum]

20. Remember, Kerry hasn't even picked his VP running mate yet.

For him to have an edge at this point is good news indeed.


:kick:

[capriccio]

35. No veep yet...

No convention speech...or no mop up job on the debates (or debate, singular, I'd bet) That's three bounces right into 1600.

[GinaMaria]

38. It aint over till it's over

I anticipate many more bumps in the road. What matters is what happens in November. There will be lots of ups and downs before then.

[crossroads]

39. Not to worry...

We have the DNC coming up, and shrub is still on the hotseat in so many areas! We also have Farenheit 911, and a couple of tell-alls due out,
Neil's ex-wifes book and Flynts book for sure... and who knows what/who else will screw up at the WH...
:shrug:

[hyphenate]

40. People are forgetting one thing

Anyone as close to Bush in ratings at this stage of the game is going very solid, believe it or not. The fact that the incumbent is slightly flagging behind is a good indicator.

Kerry has had to wage a very difficult campaign fight since the very beginning, and while at times he's appeared to be unproductive, the fact is, if he continued at a rapid pace all through the campaign, he'd be completely exhausted and useless when we need him most.

While some view the period after the Democratic convention and before the Republican convention as a dead period, this is when Kerry will shine the most. He will be able to expand his campaign nationwide with a lot more money, and the 527s on the Democratic side will be also able to spread their messages as well. And he can be more critical of the RNC while he's campaigning in that interim, and be even more demonstrative once the Republican convention is over. Remember one thing: the RNC managed to delay their convention to take advantage of 9/11, but it also shortens their active campaign to 1 and a half months, while Kerry will have slightly over 3 months to deliver his message. I could be wrong, but I will bet you that there is going to be a significant turnout for this year's election--in OUR favor, simply because of the dissatisfaction many, many people have with Bush right now. And Reagan won't help--the shit they've handed to President Clinton right now, by monopolizing the Reagan ceremonies, on taxpayers' money, will not be forgotten by a lot of people. Allowing Bushshit to talk and not the other former, living Presidents, is going to be a sore spot for many people for a long time. And since the ass will only mangle the English language in his eulogy will make it quite apparent that he is not the "heir" to Reagan, regardless of Rove and Cheney's best plans. I hated Reagan, anyhow, but at least making sure he's dead and buried in a proper fashion should be awarded to him as a former dignatory.

[glitch]

41. Kerry is leading against a "popular war time" incumbant president?

That is amazing! I don't think some of you realize just how bad that is for bush*.

[hippiegranny]

42. kerry's a closer

and he is doing exactly what he should be doing at this stage of the game. 'nuff said.

[Rochambeau]

44. What about economy ? It's the big thing in elections as far as I know and

it is improving worldwidely and in the US too apparently...

[TankLV]

45. But we still haven't reached "zero" yet!

bunkerboy LOST over 3 MILLION jobs since HE took office - not even half that amount has been created. Don't EVER forget that!

Worst.

pResident.

Ever.

[Doug Decker]

46. Take a look at Pollkatz...

it gives a summary of all the polls and is a great resource. This link shows the Bush approval record (I wish I could post the chart). Look at it - Bush isn't doing so well.

Pollkatz combines the major polls and gives the trend (changes over time) which is the best way to look at poll data.

Oh, yeah:

On edit: what do you know, I posted the chart.