Even as economy recovers, undecideds tilt toward Kerry (CSM Poll)

[Khephra]

Opinion of Bush's performance reaches a low for his term - yet his supporters are fervent, and the race remains tight.

By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON – President Bush is losing ground with the American public in how his leadership rankings, but in a head-to-head matchup with Democratic rival John Kerry, he remains in a dead heat, according to the latest Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll.
In the nationwide poll of 1,003 adults, taken June 1-6, Bush suffered across the board losses in his presidential leadership ratings, posting an all-time low in the Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll's Presidential Leadership Index. That reading dropped from a slightly positive 51.8 in May to slightly negative 47.3 in June; 50 represents a neutral view.

'At a crossroads'

Still, among the 834 registered voters polled, Bush leads a three-way field of presidential candidates, with 43 percent of the vote. Senator Kerry gets 41 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader wins 7 percent. A month ago, Bush led by 1 point. Currently, in a two-way matchup against Kerry, Bush leads 45 percent to 44 percent.

"We may be at a crossroads, where people may not be totally approving his performance but still preferring him for president, because of growing concerns over national security," says Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP.

more..........

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0611/p02s02-uspo.html

[MikeG]

1. It will be an avalanche by the time of the convention.

[llmart]

2. In my opinion, not a credible poll....

whenever you see Nader getting 7%. Something is wrong in Denmark about these numbers and I wouldn't give them much credence.

[NMDemDist2]

4. yup a poll of less than a thousand I tend to discount eom

[realcountrymusic]

14. Yep, that's too weird

I don't think I know seven people who will vote for Nader, let alone seven percent of the people I know, and most of the people I know are (these days) lefties. A substantial number of my friends voted Nader last time, and NONE of them plan to do so this time for all the right reasons.

I've started to actually despise Nader. Frankly, I wish he would go f**k himself. What a narcissisistic asshole. I predict he gets .08 percent of the national popular vote this time. But even that is too much. I'm half convinced he's on the GOP payroll.

RCM

[Doug Decker]

3. If you like polls, look at this one...

It shows *'s approval. The trend isn't good for his future election.

[struggle4progress]

9. That's one inspiring graph! We might really be rid of these thugs!

[Rocket Science]

10. Outstanding Graphics, Doug!

Thanks so much for posting this.

It really helps clarify things.

I think the economy is recovering but it won't make
much difference because Bush basically incompetent.

He had a 90% approval rating after 9/11 and look at where it is today!
He squandered all of that good will and support. The same happened to the good will the rest of the world had towards America after 9/11.

Great posting

:kick:

[AndyTiedye]

15. If That was a Stock I'd SELL

[aquart]

5. The economy is NOT recovering.

Treasury Department flunked math.

[BlackActivist]

6. A majority of this phenomenon has to do with the war.

For two reasons:

1. Higher oil prices (people have an anxiety that the economy will not truly recover).

2. High casualties in Iraq.

[CharlesGroce]

7. The economy has been "recovering" for three years now!

This media slant is getting a bit ridiculous. The economy is NOT improving significantly, the labor market in particular. And that's what we the people are concerned with, and that's what's not getting addressed.

[Skittles]

8. I don't think most people are fooled

we live in the real world.

[Zynx]

11. Agreed on BS Numbers

Maybe 10% of American (I'm being nice) read and understand the numbers. They're all too smart to be swayed by either side's propaganda.

The rest of the American people just look at how they are doing. The economy on the street sucks because the numbers are inflated and not accurate. People see that their personnel economy sucks and, guess what? They say that the economy sucks and that Bush should be out.

[Devil Dog Dem]

12. Sweet!

eom

[Tempest]

13. Study: 80% of Undecideds Vote for Challenger

Incumbent Races: Closer Than They Appear

by Nick Panagakis

http://www.socastee.com/all_politics/incumbent_races.htm

(Nick Panagakis, a member of the National Council on Public Polls, is
president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion
research firm headquartered in Mt. Prospect, Ill. This article
appeared in the February 27, 1989 edition of The Polling Report.)

How will undecideds vote on election day? Traditionally, there have
been two schools of thought about how undecideds in trial heat
match-ups will divide up at the ballot box. One is that they will
break equally; the other, that they will split in proportion to poll
respondents who stated a candidate preference.

But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an
incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time,
most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.