STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY AUGUST 12.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday August 12, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 529
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 272
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 244 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 302 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 144
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 628
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 11, 2003

Dow 9,217.35 +26.26 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,661.51 +17.48 (+1.06%)
S&P 500 980.59 +3.00 (+0.31%)
10-Year Bond 4.37% +0.08 (+1.91%)
Gold future...... 362.70 -0.60 (-0.17%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Interest Rates Continue Higher

Now that the enormous Treasury auction of $60 billion is out of the way from last week, we can take a look to see how the dust is beginning to settle. On Friday I commented that this week would probably see money slide back into Treasuries, but it doesn’t appear that the decline in bond prices has found a bottom yet. The 10-year note was 31/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.35% and the 30-year Bond fell 17/32 for a yield of 5.27%. The market is pricing-in the anticipated second-half recovery with higher interest rates. It’s fascinating to see headlines that read, “U.S. Treasuries Decline on Concern Rebound Is Gaining Speed” and a comment from a bond analyst that reads, “Market participants fear more robust data than expected, pressuring bond prices.”

Economic Recovery On The Way

All of the good economic news is supposedly pushing bond prices lower (I think it’s all the supply) so the higher interest rates are justified by all the improvements in the economy. Tomorrow the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but market participants will be listening closely for near term guidance. If the statement from the Fed is overly bullish on future growth it could send Treasuries even lower which would raise long-term interest rates. If Mr. Greenspan was trying to keep interest rates low, he shot himself in the foot on July 15th when he gave his testimony to Congress. I doubt very much that he will let that happen again. If anything, I have a gut feeling that the Fed statement tomorrow will be somewhat cautionary and possibly start talking about deflation again.

They keep talking about an economic recovery, but it’s not showing up in the bottom line earnings numbers. Earnings certainly didn’t break any records for the second quarter, so all the economic good stuff had better show up in third quarter earning reports or stocks go hard-down this fall. Today the Dow Industrials remained close to breakeven for most of the day with a final spurt in the last half-hour to close with a gain of 26 points at 9,217, the broader S&P 500 added three points to close at 980, and the NASDAQ got the best bounce today after the 4% sell-off last week by adding 17 points to close at 1,661. With all the good economic news slated for later this week, we could see a final blow-off before stocks head south.

more...

[Maeve]

2. Morning, all!

Looks like it could be a good day for Wall Street, altho Master Greenspan may make or break it...the rest of the week is fairly busy and we may have a light day of it until traders decide which way the wind is blowing. (See the economic calendar at http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business )
European markets were up, dollar is down vs euro (boo! hiss! And we haven't gotten the currency all traded yet!)

My last day at the computer before I get on that big silver bird. :bounce:

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Maeve.

My DU stalled when I tried postng a story about the markets holding steady (flat) until the Zarathustra (Greenspan) climbs down from his mountaintop to make his announcements.

So tomorrow is the big day! You know that these currency traders can change their minds on a dime. Do you get the Clark Howard radio show in your area? This guy is a professional cheapskate who made his millions in the travel industry before online travel planning gave that industry a black eye. He suggests using the foreign ATMs because the exchange rate is minute-to-minute without so many processing fees. Just a thought.

[Maeve]

6. Thanks, for the tip

Hubby is planning to get some travellers checks in euros today or tomorrow. I may be wrong about which way the dollar is going against the euro--and the shifts aren't major...yet. But I'm working on a nice flock of stomach butterflies.

Here's a nice article calling for clarity from Mr Greenspin et al...

Clarity, please, Mr. Greenspan

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A growing number of observers have come to believe that the best thing the Federal Reserve could do to ensure economic recovery is offer up a little more clarity on what, exactly, might prompt it to start raising rates again.

At this point it seems unlikely they're going to get their wish.

Economists and investors are all in agreement over what the Fed will do with rates when it meets Tuesday -- nothing -- but when it comes to what's going to happen later this year and next, confusion reigns.

[Maeve]

3. Bond market is cautious

Once bitten....
Burned by the Fed in 1994, the bond market is playing it cautious.
August 12, 2003: 8:27 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The bond market is convinced that it's 1994 all over again. The Fed's job on Tuesday is to try to convince investors that this is not the case.

1994 was a disastrous year for bonds, with many investors caught unawares of how aggressively the Fed would tighten the screws as it engineered a "soft landing" for the too-hot U.S. economy. After holding steady at 3 percent for over a year, the Fed, between February 1994 and January 1995, ran the fed funds target rate up to 6 percent.

The Treasury market got slaughtered. The yield on the 10-year note went from an October 1993 low of 5.19 percent up to a November 1994 peak of 8.05 percent

[ozymandius]

5. Stocks Look Up as Street Awaits Fed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are set to crawl higher at the open on Tuesday on momentum from a positive session a day ago, but trading is expected to be light and cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's assessment of the nation's economy.

The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will gather to discuss interest-rate strategy and should announce a decision around 2:15 p.m. The FOMC is widely expected to keep interest rates at current 45-year lows to fuel economic growth, but all eyes will be on its view of the U.S. economy.

story

[ozymandius]

7. Fed Seen Keeping U.S. Short Rates on Hold

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve (news - web sites) policy-makers almost certainly will keep short-term interest rates steady when they meet on Tuesday, hoping a budding pickup will flower into more vibrant second-half economic growth.

The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) gathers at 9:00 a.m. EDT to consider interest-rate strategy and should announce a decision around 2:15 p.m. EDT.

story

[Maeve]

8. And a positive start to the morning

Dow 9,228.76 +11.41 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,665.66 +4.15 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 982.09 +1.50 (+0.15%)

[Maeve]

9. 9:50 morning blather

9:45AM: A very tame open...up a little, as suggested by the pre-open futures move...no real news, just a little momentum from yesterday's close ahead of the Fed's policy announcement at 2:15 ET...trading will probably be quite slow ahead of that announcement...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,231.14 +13.79 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,664.84 +3.33 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 982.41 +1.82 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.354% -0.017

[Maeve]

11. Blather update at 10:03

10:00AM: Nothing much happening...volume starts off even slower than yesterday, which was the slowest day of the year...indices hold early, very modest gains but action so far has been stable...for a while, all the indices were within 1 point of unchanged...now that's interesting...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

and then it bounced! Low volume days are often highly volatile.

Dow 9,227.71 +10.36 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,665.53 +4.02 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 982.46 +1.87 (+0.19%)

[JNelson6563]

10. Good Morning!!

Can you believe I only got up a few minutes ago??? Holy Cow!! I can't. Boy when that 5:30 AM stuff starts (soon) it's gonna hurt!

9:49 and we're here:

Dow 9,231.70 +14.35 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,665.13 +3.62 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 982.39 +1.80 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.355% -0.016

Could be a sunny day on the Street. I hope Euro's take a one day, unexpected, big dip for ya Maeve! ;-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

12. 10:28 and creeping up

DJIA 9,232.12 14.77 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ 1,668.27 6.76 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 982.98 2.39 (+0.24%)

[Maeve]

13. Note the Nasdaq-Dow disconnect

Tech stocks are still out-performing the blue chips. Dow is boucing around 9,230 (+.1) while Nasdaq is up in the +.4% range. Not big movements, but intersting enough for a low-key day.

[ozymandius]

14. Interesting indeed.

By way of guaging some pattern of the day's trends, I check the industry news. So far - there has been little reported to substantiate this trend for the Nasdaq.

I wonder if some companies are buying back their stock to boost prices. Anyone know how to check on this?

[ozymandius]

15. 11:11 and little movement

DJIA 9,232.76 15.41 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ 1,666.48 4.97 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 981.77 1.18 (+0.12%)


Stocks Float Higher; Market on Fed Watch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks crawled up on Tuesday on the heels of an upbeat session a day earlier, but trading was subdued ahead of the Federal Reserve's snapshot of the U.S. economy later in the day.

The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is discussing interest-rate strategy and should announce a decision around 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT) The FOMC is widely expected to keep interest rates at current 45-year lows to spur economic growth, but all eyes will be on its view of the U.S. economy.

story

[Maeve]

16. Noon update

12:00PM: The mid-day summary isn't much different than the opening comment...the indices opened with a very slight gain and have traded in a narrow range ahead of the 2:15 Fed policy announcement...it is widely expected that the Fed will not change policy...the market is looking to any comments about the inflation and economic outlook, however...volume is extremely low, as NYSE is at just 440 million shares traded...yesterday at mid-day, that figure was at 457 million on what turned out to be the slowest trading day of the year...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,227.78 +10.43 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,666.78 +5.27 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 981.74 +1.15 (+0.12%)

[Maeve]

17. 1:00 yawn

Dow 9,231.49 +14.14 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,669.51 +8.00 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 982.57 +1.98 (+0.20%)

[Maeve]

18. 2:05 snooze fest

Dow 9,226.17 +8.82 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,669.10 +7.59 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 981.70 +1.11 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.367% -0.004

[JNelson6563]

19. Fed: Rate unchanged

and some goobledy-gook that hints at deflation....

We'll see how it all plays, as of now, 2:17:



Dow 9,218.19 +0.84 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,668.20 +6.69 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 981.42 +0.83 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.376% +0.005


Julie

[Maeve]

20. Boing! that lack of news seems to have put the bounce back

:shrug:

Dow 9,268.12 +50.77 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 1,677.14 +15.63 (+0.94%)
S&P 500 986.54 +5.95 (+0.61%)

[JNelson6563]

21. still afloat

3:12 and safely green:


Dow 9,252.85 +35.50 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,675.18 +13.67 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 985.04 +4.45 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.363% -0.008

Julie

[Maeve]

22. Yep! Bouncing right up to the giddy side!

Dow 9,290.74 +73.39 (+0.80%)
Nasdaq 1,683.81 +22.30 (+1.34%)
S&P 500 988.74 +8.15 (+0.83%)

[Merlin]

23. I still say this kind of sudden, inexplicable surging is orchestrated.

It's intended to build the hype that "the market is recovering!"

"Orchestrated? By whom?," I'm always asked.

I don't know. But I know it would have to be by a group of people who control some pretty large funds, and are relatively unaccountable to their beneficiaries. That sounds like institutionals.

[Maeve]

24. You don't suppose....

Shrub's Daddy's friends are still bailing him out do you? :think:
Or maybe friends of Mr Greenspin?

Yeah, I need to get out of here for a while!

[Maeve]

25. Final figures for the day

First, a warning--volume was very low, around the lowest of the year. That means the figures may be a bit on the :crazy: side and basically meaningless. I'd bet on profit-taking in the not-too-distant future.
Having said that...
Yee-haw! Ride 'em, cowboys!
Dow 9,310.06 +92.71 (+1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,687.01 +25.50 (+1.53%)
S&P 500 990.35 +9.76 (+1.00%)

Y'all take care of watching the pot and keep it from boiling over while I'm gone, y'hear?

Slan libh! (Goodbye to folks staying, by one leaving, in the Irish)

[Gloria]

26. The Cavuto crowd on Fox are all excited. Brenda Buttner says there

are good things going on with the economy...jobs, businesses are buying, retail sales up.....(as a flash came up with a store whose sales were DOWN!)

Two other guys are saying the market will "break out" now that the Fed has gone neutral about rates....

MMMMMM

[JNelson6563]

27. haha! Faux is so funny!!

Silly fascists!! Keep pumping up expectations for that third quarter that is extremely unlikely to replicate #s from the first half. The countless downward adjustments not withstanding.

Fools. Ah well, let the silly Faux sheeple buy into the hype, a bunch of profit takers will swoop in and feed off of their gullibility. Maybe they'll learn that yes, the economy is....not as healthy as they'd been led to believe and that R's can't run an economy anywhere but into the ground.

Julie

[twilight]

28. third quarter = a bust so far

I've been tracking the prices on some funds I sold at the end of June (bond funds). It was a smart move to sell them (gawwd).

I've been watching mutual funds as well. Many are below what they were worth on June 1st.

I don't get any of this. Does anyone else?

Manipulation at its finest perhaps? :shrug:

:dem: