Kerry Leads Bush by 3% in West Virginia, this is very good news folks.

[DEMVET-USMC]

The source for this information is a recent " The American Research Group " poll. This WAS considered a given for Bush and now he trails Kerry by 3% in this Southern State. The whole Country has had it with this thoroughly corrupt and inept Administration. The web address for this excellent and reliable polling group is: < http://www.americanresearchgroup.com >. ...Oscar

[wryter2000]

1. That is good news

I only hope we can get the roaches out of Congress, too.

[DaveSZ]

2. Good

I just hope he doesn't show up there and talk about gun control.

:(

[NMDemDist2]

9. looks to me like JK can control a gun just fine

[Ironpost]

18. Could you imagine bush* with a gun in his hand

are we talking scary here or what

[NMDemDist2]

20. very scary, he is such a klutz i'm amazed they let him chop brush

at the "ranch"

[DEMVET-USMC]

28. He has been showing up with bruises and such,maybe he`s back on

the booze and other things. Some people think he is starting to crack. Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great Fall and all the kings horses and all the King`s men couldn`t put Humpty together again. ...Oscar

[DEMVET-USMC]

7. A lot of those GOP congress people will be checking into: The Roach Motel

nearest them come November. ...Oscar

[meow2u3]

16. The U. S. House of Representatives IS the Roach Motel

Look at the Cockroach in Chief misruling it, and you'll see what I mean! :evilgrin:

[cmd]

3. Excellent! Go, Mountaineers! n/t

[DEMVET-USMC]

6. YO ! ! coalminersdaughter ! ! !

Get some West Virginia Democrats ! ! ! ! ...Oscar

[cmd]

13. Doing what I can in Ohio

but I'll be glad to cross the river any day to help out. I love those West Virginia hills.

[DEMVET-USMC]

17. Go get them where ever you can, keep up the good work.

WE ARE GOING TO WIN THIS ONE THANKS TO PEOPLE LIKE YOU. ...Oscar

[Longhorn79]

23. Red River Gorge in Kentucky was my favorite when I was an Ohioan

Before I moved down here to Texas, that National Park was the best place to camp in the world.

[derrald]

4. Yep,

Although I disagree with the "southern state" thing (come on, Chester is farther north than Pittsburgh!), I totally agree with that poll. In fact, I believe the Kerry lead is much larger. Most WVians are upset as hell about the steel situation and blame Bush for it big time.

[TahitiNut]

36. Sure ... and Canada is south of Detroit, too.

:eyes:

[DEMVET-USMC]

5. Also Kerry has tied Bush in New Hampshire. Once considered a bastion

of " Rock Ribbed REPUBLICANS ". This also shows a significant move to Kerry in GOP States. Very good news for us Democrats. ...Oscar

[DEMVET-USMC]

8. Also Kerry leads Bush in Ohio by 7%. Because of Ohio`s large electral

colledge vote <20 votes>, Kerry is significanly ahead at this time and the vote is moving his way Nationaly. ...Oscar

[4_Legs_Good]

10. Keep up the good work in OHIO!

That's where this election will be determined, mark my words.

david

[Kukesa]

12. Sorry to say, it's a little closer than that.

I posted this earlier in the Ohio forum:

Is Ohio the Florida of 2004?


Both Shrub and Kerry NEED to win in Ohio to win the election.

Here's a link to MSNBC with another interesting story about how import the Buckeye State is:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5240352 /

We've got to work hard, but we CAN do it!

[DEMVET-USMC]

14. If you are referring to that poll on the right of the screen at that site

it is an online poll and not very reliable. The American Research Group has a very good track record and I consider them too be the most reliable poll. ...Oscar

[Longhorn79]

24. Ohio is huge. By that I mean important

But I don't get why you assume Kerry is ahead directly because of the large amount of electoral votes.

[DEMVET-USMC]

26. Iam not sure what you are refering to in my post, but if Kerry takes Ohio

in the current electoral count using the eltral vote calculator provided at that site Kerry wins. I do not know why but that calculator has bush winning Ohio wich seems unlikely the way the vote is moving there. You can also add some other States where Kerry currently leads and he comes out with a comfortable lead. ...Oscar

[bushwakker]

30. If he wins Ohio he wins the election

Bush CAN'T win without Ohio. Dems can carve together enuf elec votes to win without it. I'm a little skeptical of this poll however.

[olddem43]

32. Agreed! - We win Ohio and its Bush Cheney Bye Bye

It's tough to live down here in Hamilton County, surrounded by right wingers, but we do all the damage we can.

[Just Me]

11. Reporting from the folds of the Appalachias, Bush's ass is grass. n/t

[DEMVET-USMC]

15. Good news and I am glad to hear it.

...Oscar

[calimary]

31. From your mouth to God's ears...

I hope it holds. THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO GET COMPLACENT!!!

[DEMVET-USMC]

19. OHIO looking very good for John Kerry an ARG poll shows 7% lead in

this very important State with 20 electoral votes. The latest ARG results are from a poll conducted on May 12, 2004. To go directly to that poll use this site < http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ohg/ >. ...Oscar

[Poiuyt]

21. Does American Research Group tend to show any bias

one way or the other?

[DEMVET-USMC]

22. No, not at all. They go to great lengths in the way they pose questions,

keeping them simple and to the point and rotate the names as choices to avoid any misleads as to wich name is given in what order. They are on the money when the vote is cast and the ballots counted unless they are not counted as happened in Florida and the other GOP shenanigans that went on in Florida. They are the best out there in my opinion.I stay glued to their website during elections as they keep an exciting tally going around the Nation. ...Oscar

[TahitiNut]

37. American Research Group is one of the least Bush-biased.

Not surpisingly, Pox and NBC/WSJ are the most biased by far.


WHICH POLLSTERS LIKE BUSH THE BEST?

FOX 6.454 4.877
NBCWSJ 5.270 3.018
ABCPOST 4.172 2.693
GALLUP 4.158 3.381
PEW 4.043 2.217
CNNTIME 2.335 1.153
CBS 1.858 0.653
NYT 1.437 0.364
NEWSWEEK 1.086 0.574
TIPP 0.537 0.213
HARRIS 0.378 0.169
IPSOS-REID 0.000 na
ARG (3.074) (1.886)
IBD (6.144) (5.678)
ZOGBY (7.477) (5.371)

RANGE (between highest and lowest) 13.932
updated 06/17/04
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/bushindexprobushtable.htm

[Raiden]

25. I think Kerry can win Ohio! :)

Ohio is still in recession and its people were hit very hard by outsourcing. If Kerry keeps it up and picks a likeable moderate running mate (Clark/Edwards anyone?) I think his chances are really good. Too bad the people in my state, Kentucky, are too blind too see that the GOP has done nothing but f*ck us up the *ss, if they did, Kerry would win here in a landslide. For example, GOP Governor Ernie Fletcher won the election on a promise to cut government waste, and do you know what he did? He slashed education funding by half. Fletcher is a DUMBA$$! Too bad his chopper wasn't shot out of the sky when he caused his little Capitol scare because it would have been just what he deserved!

ABB in 2004!!!

[drb]

27. ...and Karl Rove is on the Bat Phone to Osama....

"Hey, bro, you got everything ready for the next attack? We're gonna need something big enough to give us an excuse to cancel the election!"

[testing123]

29. Great News

Bush Co. must be blowing a fuse right now.

[Almost_there]

33. Ready to be flamed...

OK, call me a pessimist, but, SO WHAT??? There are how many months until the election? I am so tired of seeing stupid polls on this board, and when the polls are positive for Kerry, we get dozens of "Hey! That's great! People know what they are talking about!" And when they are down a few points for Kerry, we get "Polls are meaningless and stupid, this is right wing bias". Well, we can't have it both ways. If you want to give up the fight because the poll numbers look good in West Virginia, and just ignore that state, or forget Ohio, since Kerry was ahead by 6 there in MAY!!!, well, go right ahead and hand the election to Bush.

Come on! Stop with the "wow! Great news!" On the polls. These polls are generally meaningless and silly until about 3 weeks out from the election. Anything can happen, and often does. There hasn't been one single debate, neither convention has happened, and the "bounces" from the conventions haven't hit yet.

I'm just trying to be realistic, but, I am not one to jump when I see Kerry up by 3 in a poll, when the MOE is 4. Sorry, that would be Up by 7!!! Or, Down by 1! NO!!!! Let's be more intellectual honest, and keep up the fight! Don't think this is going to be easy. It's a LONG TIME until November, and lots can happen.

~Almost

[Vladimir]

34. Well said n/t

[Atlanticist]

35. According to Tradesports.com, Bush is still favourite to take

both WV and Ohio.

Current bid/ask for Ohio is 59/64% likely Bush is going to take Ohio, and 54/58% likely to take WV.

The good news is that in early June, * was 81.8% certain to take Ohio, and 62% likely to take WV, so he's certainly trending downwards.

This site also has a book on Bush to win the election - they have him 59.3% certain to win (down from a high of 75% in December).

Some key battle-ground states :

Florida - 60/65%
Iowa - 37/42%
Michigan - 34-37%
Missouri - 60-64%
Nevada - 60-65%
New Hampshire - 51-55%
New Mexico - 54-55%
Ohio - 59-64%
Oregon 45-47%
Pennsylvania 46-47%
W Virginia - 54-58%
Wisconsin 41-44%
DC 0-1%
Wyoming 94-99%

All figures are Bush's chance of taking the state (in case you hadn't worked that out!!).

Lots of work still to be done.

Given there's a book open on all of these, chances are these figures are VERY accurate - I'll be keeping an eye on this website until Nov.