Hiring up, but many jobless not looking

[CShine]

After 20 months of looking for work and sending out hundreds of résumés, Jeffrey Schwab has given up trying to find another job as a draftsman. He's now taken early Social Security and is considering whether to sell his Bellingham, Wash., home to move to something smaller. "From what I can tell, there's not much to look for," says Mr. Schwab, who has 35 years of pipeline-design experience. "I am standing around with nothing to do."

Even though the economy has created 1.2 million jobs since January, some 265,000 people have dropped out of the job hunt during the same period. They would join some 19.1 million Americans in the same situation as Schwab, who are unemployed and not looking for work largely because they are convinced they won't find it. This figure, at a record level, is up 44 percent from 10 years ago. If the job market continues to improve, this large number of people could decide to get back in the job market - which would hold the unemployment rate relatively high, even as new jobs are created.

"If this flow of nonworking Americans were to reverse, it would send the jobless rate toward 8 percent," says John Challenger of the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas in Chicago.

That would certainly be the case in Pennsylvania, agrees the state's governor, Edward Rendell (D). The official unemployment rate is 5.4 percent, but it's "much greater," Mr. Rendell says, when factoring in men who have been cut off welfare and never got back into the workforce "and as a result never show up in the unemployment rolls."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0628/p02s01-usec.html

[2Design]

1. exactly these numbers are ridiculous

I remember in 92 it was the same way....and companies would say they couldn't find workers... there were dozens of us looking for work but they never even looked at our resumess...unless we appeared under 30 and hopefully in our 20s.....

makes it really tough for the older worker that no company is willing to have as an employee because insurance is so high...

[Eric J in MN]

2. If the author is implying that the job market is better than

If the author is implying that the job market is better than people realize, I disagree.

I think people with experience in an industry are in touch with the job market for that industry.

I wrote an article earlier this month titled, "Fake Job Numbers from the Bush Administration Paint a Rosy Picture."

http://www.moveleft.com/moveleft_essay_2004_06_07_fake_job_numbers_from_the_bush_administration.asp

[steely]

3. Naw, I don't read it that way....

I think the author is saying that 1.2M jobs isn't enuff for the 19 whatever million people that aren't on the books anymore - plus - the total number of people that are on the jobless roles - whatever that total is. And if the 19M people give up, and trickle back in, we'll have hi unemployment rates for a loonng time.

I always thought it funny - since I learned based economics 30 some yrs ago, that the numbers of unemployed who fell off the roles, weren't considered a factor in the published unemployement figures. Not a true indication of reality in my book either.

[lanparty]

4. New computation method ...

The administration is using a revolutionary new sampling/derivation technique. It's been called the "anal extraction".

Basically, after adding up payroll receipts they "guess". We know because economists have been bitching that the administration hasn't released it's method of computation. There is no way to independently caculate the results. In other words, they're using the "ZOGBY" methodology.

Seriously, we really do need to do something about the "faux" unemployment numbers. The deal with being uncalculated after your unemployment benefits expire is absolute idiocy.

[Mnemosyne]

5. Yep! Lots of jobs...

$5.15 an hour in service industry, maybe 15 to 25 hrs a week.

Oh wait, shrub reclassified making burgers as a "manufacturing" job, so many "good" jobs now.

The unmentality of this bunch never ceases to amaze and sorrow me.

[SoCalDem]

6. the extra sad part is that, by taking early social security, he has

agreed to take even LESS than he deserves, and only because he cannot find decent paying work..

There are lots of boomers in a similar position.. They are late 50's early 60's and are used to having a "family-supporting" job, and now they find themselves as "part-timers" or "reluctant retirees", just as lots of them have kids entering college..

Remember...we were the generation who were told that we should concentrate on careers, and NOT start families so young...(There would be plenty of time for kids...and by then we would be financially secure).. The joke is on us...and our kids..

This carries into the next generation folks..

Imagine a family of 4..Mom, Dad 17 yr old and 18 yr old..

Suppose that Dad makes $50K and Mom makes 20K.. Let's say they still owe on the house they bought to raise their kids..

Dad loses his job when the company "relocates".. The job market for $50K 59 yr olds is ZIP/NIL/NADA/ZERO...

So just as the kiddos are ready to start college, the family is reduced to 29% of the income they are "used to".. These kids, will most likely NOT finish college, even if they do manage to go..

So the next generation is being damaged by the Bush economy..not just Mom & Dad..

[mhr]

7. Here Is What Things Look Like In Texas

This chart is from the Dallas federal reserve.

FWIW - I live in Dallas and have been unemployed for four years.



Also not mentioned is that upwards of 65% of the new jobs may be bogus since they are created by a BLS computer. No one knows if they are real or not.

[SoCalDem]

8. There are real jobs being "created". but

they are crappy, service jobs.. If your job requires a polyester tunic and/or a paper hat, you are on the treadmill to nowhere..

and something they never mention, is that when a formerly "well-employed" person has to take TWO crappy jobs to survive, that is NOT a success..

[Mari333]

10. That is me, getting a health care job

Its all there is. I have to take the state test, then get a job. Im 52, and lost half our savings after 9/11. Oh well...! Make do. Selling and downsizing, while our tax monies go to Halliburton and Kellog Brown and Root, where they are lost ...........My husband has an interview today.
Just make do..get by, live simply, and cheapo cheapo cheapo.
Paying off health care bills on a payment plan. Its the only way nowadays.

[dusty64]

9. Maybe cause the numbers

are cooked to a crisp and no one wants the third world jobs that are being offered.