Consumer confidence leaps

[papau]

http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/29/news/economy/confidence/index.htm?cnn=yes

Consumer confidence leaps

Conference board measure of confidence posts 8-point gain to best level in two years.
June 29, 2004: 10:18 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumers were far more confident in June, according to the most recent Conference Board survey released Tuesday, with the index coming in well above Wall Street expectations.

The board's June index came in at 101.9., up from the revised 93.1 reading in May. It marked the best reading for the index in two years. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast the index would rise to 95.

Consumer confidence is important because it correlates closely with consumer spending behavior, and spending by consumers accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.<snip>

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Increases More Than Eight Points in June June 29, 2004

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which was virtually unchanged last month, increased sharply in June. The Index now stands at 101.9 (1985=100), up from 93.1 in May. The Present Situation Index is now 104.8, up from 90.5 in May. The Expectations Index rose to 100.0 from 94.8.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS NFO. TNS NFO is one of the TNS group of companies (LSE: TNN). The cutoff date for June’s preliminary results was June 22nd.



“The strong improvement in current conditions has propelled Consumer Confidence to levels not seen since June 2002,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “Looking ahead, consumers expect the economy to continue to grow at a healthy clip and to continue to generate additional jobs. And, with prices at the pump beginning to ease, the short-term outlook remains favorable.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved considerably in June. Those saying business conditions are “good” rose to 25.6 percent, up from 22.2 percent. Those claiming conditions have worsened fell to 17.5 percent from 21.6 percent. Consumers claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 26.5 percent from 30.3 percent. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” rose to 18.0 percent from 16.6 percent.

Consumers are more optimistic about the short-term future. Those expecting business conditions to improve in the next six months rose to 23.4 percent from 22.8 percent. Consumers expecting conditions to worsen declined to 9.2 percent from 10.1 percent.

The employment outlook remains upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs to become available increased to 19.7 percent from 18.7 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs edged down to 17.1 percent from 17.3 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes rose to 19.3 percent, up from 17.1 percent last month.

[colonel odis]

1. consumer confidence leaps ....

.... off a cliff and commits suicide.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

2. Papau..think these will be adjusted back downward when no one is

watching?

[bagnana]

3. "prices at the pump beginning to ease."

Is anyone tracking whether this is part of Saudi Arabia's promise to Bush to ensure his election by making gas prices cheaper "in the summer," as noted in Woodward's book?

[VolcanoJen]

6. Good Prince Bandar, coming through on his promise.

I think we're all tracking it, bagnana!!

[papau]

4. No - this is the Confidence level that caused folks to increase spending

Indeed, The June job growth numbers are locked in and are very positive - but again only because of the "special estimate" of the pretend jobs of those working at home and not yet in system

Release of Jobs data is Friday - and Bush is having Speech written for 11 am "good news" comment on Friday.

Our media will not analyse data - and impression will be left that all is well.

I do not see our media telling enough truth to stop the growth in confindence.

But then I do not see it causing much more of an impact that the 5 point rise in the poll that Bush already got these last 2 weeks - and that only brough him to "even" with Kerry.

If Kerry sells himself as non-stiff good guy at convention, the polls will break hard in his favor.

I hope!

:-)

[MisterP]

5. when it's up, they call it the cons. confidence index,

when it's down it's the "sentiment index"