STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY, AUGUST 14.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday August 14, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 527
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 274
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 246 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 304 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 146
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 630
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 12, 2003

Dow 9,271.76 -38.30 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,686.61 -0.40 (-0.02%)
S&P 500..... 984.03 -6.32 (-0.64%)
10-Year Bond 4.56% +0.20 +4.66%)
Gold future...... 364.90 +1.20 (+0.33%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Snap, Crackle, Pop

SNAP went the bond market with some heavy losses, CRACKLE went the Dow struggling in the red all day, and POP went precious metals with some very nice gains. To put it succinctly, Treasury Bonds and Notes were crushed today. This is BIG! The 30-year bond fell 1 18/32 to 98 24/32 increasing the yield to 5.47% at the close of trading today while the 10-year note declined by 1 7/32 to 97 11/32 increasing the yield to 4.58%. The really big money took some serious losses today with the meltdown in bonds. The players that had to take the biggest losses were the primary bond dealers that are still sitting on their inventory from last week’s debt sales. They must be looking at themselves and asking the question, “How will we ever sell all this paper when there is no demand?”

Why would any investor want to buy fixed-income debt in an atmosphere of rising interest rates? This comes at a time when there is a record amount of treasury debt outstanding. The market is telling us that nobody wants it. The only solution is lower and lower bond prices until supply and demand can find equilibrium. When I look at my screen today, all I see is lots of red ink in both stocks and bonds.

<..cut..>
I truly believe that Freddie and Fannie could have interest rate derivatives that are bleeding lots of red ink. These could easily become another LTCM or Enron type of failure. I vividly remember a quote from last week (but can’t find it to quote directly) by Frank Raines, CEO of Fannie Mae that said something to the effect that the sudden and rapid fall in treasury bond prices is comparable to the proverbial 100-year storm. To read between the lines, I take it that things happened in the last few weeks in the bond market that they simply did not anticipate. It was that rogue wave out of nowhere. If things happened that they did not anticipate, they probably have some VERY LARGE interest rate bets that have gone sour.

Back to the Retail Sales

Retail sales rose 1.4% in June while expectations called for an increase of 1.0%. The number beat expectations and posted the third month in a row that retail sales have increased. Two other numbers that I found interesting were the retail inventories which increased by 0.4% and manufacturing that fell by 0.2%. If sales increased, but inventories are higher on lower manufacturing output, I have to believe that our trade deficit just got worse. If we continue to purchase more from overseas than we sell, how are we going to get money flowing back into the USA? As it stands, we borrow the money from offshore and then spend it right back on imported goods. Our trade balance is still way out of line.

more

[ozymandius]

2. Bonds stifle tech

The sharp rise in bond yields is especially bad news for tech investors.

In just two months, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has jumped from a 45-year low of 3.11 percent all the way up to 4.6 percent, its highest level in over a year. While equity types weren't terribly concerned about what was happening in the Treasury pit at first -- if anything they showed a touch of schadenfreude at seeing the bond guys take some lumps -- the selloff has become so relentless that it is now the stock market's number-one worry.

The Treasury selloff, after all, doesn't do the economy a lick of good. With the backup in yields there has also been a backup in mortgage rates. As a result mortgage activity has fallen back to year-ago levels and much of the juice consumers have been using to keep the economy going has been taken away. Most economists reckon that the economy still has the wherewithal to recover, but they also warn that it has become more vulnerable to shock.

But for tech in particular, the bond selloff raises other concerns.

story

[ozymandius]

3. Jobless claims rise to 398,000

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Jobless claims rose last week, the government said Thursday, but the number of people filing for first-time benefits still came in just below the 400,000 level closely watched by economists and investors.

The Labor Department report said 398,000 filed for benefits in the week ended Aug. 9, up from the revised reading of 396,000 during the previous week. Economists, on average, expected new claims to come in at 390,000, according to a Reuters poll, which was the same level as the initial reading for the previous week.

The report marks the fourth straight week of new jobless benefits filings below the 400,000 level. Some economists suggest that the target for considering jobless claims strength or weakness in the economy should be higher than 400,000. But few would argue that the employment picture in the nation is a strong one at the current time.

more

[revcarol]

16. So they DID revise last weeks "glowing " jobless figures,

upward by 6000.Told ya so.

[ozymandius]

4. Stocks Set for Flat Start After Data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are set for a lackluster open on Thursday as a slew of economic data landed largely in line with expectations, offering little inspiration to the market during the slow summer season.

August is expected to be a slow month on Wall Street with trading volumes thinning out as many traders take vacations. Stocks have been mostly tepid since early June after surging from the 2003 lows they hit on March 11. Many investors are hesitant to pour more cash into the market, saying share prices already reflect an anticipated economic rebound.

story

[JNelson6563]

5. Good Morning Ozy!

Hey there! :hi:

My but everything is dark! The wrap-up was brilliant, as usual, but it can be scary to have folks who know so much more than I saying things I've been thinking, scary cause I hoped I was wrong. Is this situation with Treasuries unprecedented? Such a fast turn-around and with such brutal effects.

Sure does look like trouble on the horizon. Big trouble.

Julie

[DEMActivist]

7. Some more big trouble....

3M was downgraded by BearStearns!!!!

A downgrade on $100.00/share stock could cause some serious moves on the Dow today.

[ozymandius]

13. Wow! I wish that I had this info before making my $1.75 pronouncement.

That is monumental news. I suppose that explains the sudden jolt downwards.

DJIA 9,266.93 -4.83 (-0.05%)
NASDAQ 1,689.75 3.14 (0.19%)
S&P 500 985.20 1.17 (0.12%)

[ozymandius]

11. Good morning Julie! You want a $1.75 forecast?

There's a dearth of information as the news cycle has slowed down to a crawl. So it is really hard to make any determination as to the direction of the markets these days. One thing I do is look at the headlines and figure the biggest stories of the day. That is one way to guage the psychology of the markets.

My take today:

The market will be affected by the bond market troubles. Again this is akin to one glancing warily over their shoulder for some perceived bogeyman. Gains, if any, will be minimal and losses, if any, will be few.

The bond market's troubles that afflict directly the tech markets will bleed into other securities markets.

While the markets strike a contemplative pose, the melancholy is analogous to one quietly wrestling with inner demons.

Remember: my opinion and $1.75 will buy you a cup of coffee.

[ozymandius]

6. Here we go!

9:34

DJIA 9,282.40 10.64 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ 1,690.05 3.44 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 985.68 1.65 (+0.17%)

[DEMActivist]

8. -17 by 9:38 AM

Don't expect to see a good day today...this could get ugly.

[JNelson6563]

9. you are right DemActivist--

about the 3M downgrade and the forecast. It seems the house of cards is really wobbley today.

9:43 and getting uglier:

DJIA 9,237.10 -34.66 -0.37%

Nasdaq 1,683.63 -2.98 -0.18%

S&P 500 982.27 -1.76 -0.18%

and the 10yr's at 4.61

I guess treasuries may hit scrap-paper worth today.......ouch!

Julie

[DEMActivist]

10. 3M down by $2.32 already...

this simply cannot be good.

[JNelson6563]

12. but wait!! Here comes the sun!!

Dow 9,267.49 -4.27 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,689.83 +3.22 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 985.35 +1.32 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.584% +0.024


10:36 and things are turning around. Why? I've no idea.

Julie

[ozymandius]

14. This just makes no damn sense.

Isn't this a reversal of July's retail reports?

Target, specialty retails drag down sector

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Investors sold down shares of Target and Urban Outfitters early Thursday amid disappointing earnings reports that cast a pall across much of the retailing sector.

Shares of Target (TGT: news, chart, profile) led decliners, off $1.34, or 3.5 percent, to $38.60 after delivering a higher quarter profit but missing Wall Street's expectations.

<..cut retailer details..>

Against this back drop, the S&P Retail Index ($RLX: news, chart, profile) moved lower to 346.29.

story

So when the retail sales reports are issued, shall we assume that they only apply to Wal-Mart? WTF?

[revcarol]

17. But Wally-world met (lowered) expectations.

Investors staying out because earnings figures cannot be trusted.

[DEMActivist]

19. Here's another thought for you...on this subject

Wall Street is still looking for good August retail numbers, because that was once the traditional back to school shopping season.

I hate to break it to these folks, but most schools start in AUGUST now. That means the back to school spending is happening in JULY!!!!

With 3 kids in school - from elementary to high school - my shopping was done nearly a month ago and it was only what was absolutely required.

[ozymandius]

15. 10:43 - setup fomenting for profit-taking later

DJIA 9,299.07 27.31 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ 1,692.94 6.33 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 988.41 4.38 (+0.45%)

[ozymandius]

18. Fed bond activity at 10:43

5yr Note 3.42% 0.14

10yr Note 4.56% 0.14

30yr Bond 5.45% 0.10

[JNelson6563]

20. it's all so counter-intuitive

I agree with the profit-taking suspicions. Slim pickin's so one has to create one's on means of milking the Street.......


Dow 9,296.13 +24.37 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,692.43 +5.82 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 987.96 +3.93 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.584% +0.024


Of course if there are any profits to be worth taking they will have to do better than this!

As a side note, it's hot as hell here in norhtern Michigan. I am thinking of grabbing my suit, rounding up the kids and headin goff to cottage. Hubby working many hours, what the hell? Summer's coming ot a close, not many opportunities to dash off and float one's cares away.......will check in before leaving.

Julie-who will have a lap-top for next summer's escapades

[Coventina]

21. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hi Everybody!
:hi:

Today's reading is ADAPTING changing to REFORM. I have a strong suspicion that Ching is addressing me, not the market, with today's reading. But, I'll qote some lines from Reform, because I think they can apply to what is happening in the market right now.

"In dealing with social and political affairs, a strict adherence to established justice is necessary. A society without principles or clarity about its laws is a group of people who are going nowhere. If you are a leader, then take the initiative to administer just, reasonable, and swift penalties to restore order; if you are a member of a group, now is the time to support superior persons who can bring about social REFORM."

I'll see if I can post updates from work. Yesterday I never got the opportunity. Too many authority figures looking over my shoulder.

[ozymandius]

22. Lunch hour update and farewell.

It looks as though the market is trying to push in some direction and trending upwards. However revised figures look to be hobbling its performance. If I were either placing orders or on the trading floor, then I would be timid too.

The wife and boy have gone on a field trip today. So I have taken some extended time here. Alas, it has come to an end. Please have a wonderful afternoon and I'll see you in the morning!

12:03
DJIA 9,312.80 41.04 (+0.44%)
NASDAQ 1,694.44 7.83 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 989.51 5.48 (+0.56%)

[JNelson6563]

23. 12:17 and still hobbling along

Dow 9,327.29 +55.53 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,699.12 +12.51 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 991.50 +7.47 (+0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 4.598% +0.038


seems to fluctuate but I don't think we'll see dramatic swings until closer to the end of business today. Then, as someone mentioned before, watch for profit taking.

Leaving soon too, for a couple of days.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

24. last update today from me

Hey there fellow marketeers! I'm off to the middle of nowhere, quite literally. I'll be back in time for Monday's fiasco, er markets but this is all for me this week.

Looks like a little profit taking going on, obviously this is no rally with any sort of conviction. Sharks gettin' what they can while they can is what I see--but hey, that's me. Filling in for Maeve the wannabe pessimist (I miss her, hope she's havin' fun!!).

So it's 12:53 and here's where we're at:


Dow 9,304.89 +33.13 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,696.18 +9.57 (+0.57%)
S&P 500 988.89 +4.86 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.631% +0.071


I think they should hang a new sign on the door leading to the treas. trading pits that reads: Slaughterhouse. Ouch.

See you all Monday! :hi:

Julie

[mrsteve]

25. Just kind of hovering - per normal

Dow 9,295.85 +24.09 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,693.77 +7.16 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 987.68 +3.65 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.617% +0.057

I can usually only post around lunch (at least that hour is free) and it always seems a bit boring - the markets like to move around in the mornings, then around lunch seem to get get food coma and just float in place. Finally, around 2:30 things begin heating up again.

Oh well. At least I can kick the thread up. If nothing else, it's a worthy job since others spend so much time putting this thread together.:hi:

[mrsteve]

26. Whoops - looks like this thread sank like a rock

...while everyone was gone, including me :(

At the market close, here are the numbers:

Dow 9,310.56 +38.80 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,700.34 +13.73 (+0.81%)
S&P 500 990.51 +6.48 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.586% +0.026

And the Yahoo recap:

"The indices managed modest gains today after staging a mid-day reversal that was rooted in the Nasdaq's improved technical stance, and a number of encouraging economic reports... Nonetheless, market internals were mildly positive behind the buying drive - with advancers barely leading decliners and volume totals light at the NYSE and Nasdaq - and reflected the rather unconvincing leadership of buyers that has been characteristic of the month's lackadaisical trade... As mentioned, the market started the day in negative territory, pressured by noticeable losses in technology..."

And after the blackout, the dollar begins moving lower:

"Dollar Slips After U.S. Blackouts
Thursday August 14, 4:54 pm ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against the euro and the yen on Thursday in choppy trade after power outages struck parts of New York and elsewhere in the east coast region.
Shortly after 4 p.m. EDT the dollar moved lower, with the euro rising to $1.1286 from around $1.1245 just before the power went out in Times Square, New York. Against the yen, the dollar fell to 118.90 yen from around 119.10 yen prior to the blackout."

Hmmm....curious to see what the fallout is, even though this is NOT (at least that's the current story) a terrorist attack.