Chalabi certainly knew the Iraqis would fight back if we occupied their country. Since Wolfowitz and Rummy decided to use Chalabi's intelligence sources instead of our own traditional ones, why wouldn't they know of the repercussions that would occur after we began occupying the country?
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On a wet, grey London winter day, our Iraqi National Congress (INC) delegation passed through the check-in counter at Heathrow on its way to Tehran. A determined and defiant group, this is not the opposition routinely criticised as divided, incompetent, non-representative, a stooge of the US. Rather, it is an organisation both frustratingly elusive (due to its non-ideological and consensual internal structure) and provocative (a result of the way its activities are covered in the international press, and its unique skill in generating great criticism from all of the Iraqi people’s would-be ‘friends’ around the world).
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The delegation is opposed to an American occupation. The post-1945 German or Japanese model would have serious repercussions for Iraq and the region. Moreover, the birth of a democratic Iraq cannot be dependent solely on US troops invading and occupying the country. While US forces would initially be regarded as liberators, a lengthy stay would trigger dramatic opposition from Iraqis.
In the latter event, the energies of Iraqi people would be focused on affirming their Iraqi nationalism in the face of a foreign occupier, reminiscent of the 1920 revolt against the British. The painful memory of Saddam would be swiftly put aside.
Extended US military rule would also unleash religious extremism in Iraq. After all, one significant feature of Ba’athist rule has been the suppression of other forms of political expression. The ideological currents in circulation in the area could also find fertile ground in Iraq, especially if they are homegrown. The rise of nationalism, on a local and regional level, would hijack whatever positive momentum has been set in motion, and fuel the recruiters of religious terrorism.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/article-2-73-963.jsp