HOT! Poll Places Bustamante In Lead to Succeed Davis (AND ARNOLD)

[onehandle]

LOS ANGELES, Aug. 15 -- Before the first television ads have aired, the race to succeed California Gov. Gray Davis (D) if he is recalled came down to just two men, Republican action star Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante, according to a nonpartisan statewide poll to be released Saturday.

The California Field Poll found 25 percent of registered voters opted for Bustamante followed by 22 percent for Schwarzenegger.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A712-2003Aug15.html

[moondust]

1. Hmmm, maybe it's not over?

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[jiacinto]

2. Field Poll has usually been credible

That gives us hope after all.

[onehandle]

5. Lots of ads, at least one debate, and plently of mud....

...between now and then. But this definitely gives us hope.

[jiacinto]

15. Yeah it does

nt

[JackSwift]

23. Field poll is the only game in town in California

It is accurate and unbiased in my opinion.

[jos]

27. Yes

It's the poll to go by in California.

[twilight]

64. sure was WRONG during the election

Before the Calif. Governor's election in November it was said by these pollsters that Davis would win by a huge margin, yet he barely won.

Needless to say, I take these, and most of the other rigged "polls" out there with a grain of salt.

:dem:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

3. Bustamante/Schwarznegger?

Ahnult will be taking a rubber knife to a gun fight.

[Sick of Bullshit]

8. It's time for the Terminator's candidacy

to be terminated!*

(*by showing the voters what kind of totally clueless schmuck this guy is)

Hasta la vista, asshole!

[NNN0LHI]

4. Arnolds property tax increase must have really impressed them in Cali?

[Cha]

6. I wish someone would just wake me when my nightmare is over..

and tell Rod Serling to zip it with the twilight scenarios!

[Democat]

7. I hope this poll gets a lot of media coverage

Maybe it will help slow some of media's Arnold mania.

[MoonRiver]

54. Just heard Bob Franken talk about it on CNN.

:thumbsup:

[MoonAndSun]

9. I hope that most Californians have the common sense to

see thru this farce of a recall and do the right thing. I think this poll proves that. The media just hypes Arnie so much that it's easy to think that Arnie is unbeatable.

[Demobrat]

47. I hope most of us have the common sense to

recognize the insult to our intelligence that The Terminator is.

[Dagaz]

10. Let's hope this is true

Cruz is a real moderate who will play well to California. He's also the fundraising chairman for Lieberman <edit> in CA </edit>which would give Joe the highest profile endorsement and a real boost nationwide.

[Arugula Latte]

59. Bustamante helps Lieberman, huh?

Hmmmmm, maybe there are some thing worse than losing the state to Ahnold...(sarcasm -- sort of).

[neverforget]

11. My gut instinct says that Arnold won't be elected because

of his ties to Enron, he's a Republican in a Democratic state, he supported the anti-immigrant proposition and the Davis campaign machine will cut him down to size. Of course, I could be wrong like I was in 2002 and the Democrats winning the Senate.........

[TruthIsAll]

16. You were right, the Dems did win the Senate, the Repukes stole it

by rigging their Diebold bandits in Georgia, Texas and Minn.

In Florida,they doublepunched Gore's black votes.

In Georgia, Max Cleland's votes were registered for Saxby Chambliss. Too bad I can't prove it; no paper trail.

[JNelson6563]

40. plus the "good luck"

of the untimely demise of the great Paul Wellstone.....ah yes, the Senate.....

Julie

[okieinpain]

68. so true, so true. wellstone's memorial played a big turning point in

the 2002 election.

[Semi_subversive]

12. I used to think

that Cruz was lacking a spine. After doing some more research, he has done quite a bit to help the citizens of this state. As much as I can't stand Davis (he has made my life as a contracting officer much worse after the Oracle debacle), I'm voting no on the recall and yes on Bustamonte.

[JCMach1]

13. The winning % will be so small that flukey factors

may come into play...

The good news here is that it looks like Bustamante might hold his own...

[bluestateguy]

14. recall

All Bustamante has to do is win the 40% of voters who vote to keep Davis and he wins easily.

[PATRICK]

17. If Davis was a GOPer

He would be madly spinning the Blackout a couple of ways, against Arnold's connection to Bush and Lay and pointing at massive bungling elsewhere with NO repercussions politically. Even AFTER they had learned their lessons from Davis's "bad managaement"???

Loud, dammit LOUD!

[maggrwaggr]

18. Arnold: "You mean our gahdeners can vote?"

Arnold seems to have forgotten that California is just chock full of Latinos.

And they might not be that impressed with him when they've got one of their own running for gov, a guy who's actually qualified and experienced.

Arnold's a joke. I've been working on a shoot with bodybuilders all week, one of them is named Gunther, from Germany, real nice guy, champion bodybuilder ......... sure ain't qualified to do much else but flex his muscles. We kept joking all week that Gunther would be governor some day. He's qualified, right?!

Arnold didn't even go to college.

[Enraged_Ape]

30. Arnold has a business degree from UCLA

FYI

[ewagner]

33. Yes, he did

Went to University of Wisconsin at Superior but I don't know if he graduated. The citizens of Superior used to be proud of that.

[LiberalFighter]

46. USA Today has

Graduated from University of Wisconsin-Superior, 1979. Bachelor's in business and international economics.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2003-08-07-calif-chaos-cover_x.htm

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/news/archive/opinion_11645101.shtml
Schwarzenegger attended the University of Wisconsin-Superior and graduated, at age 32, with a bachelor’s degree in business and international economics in 1979.

http://www.madison.com/captimes/news/moe2/54536.php
As best I can piece together, it happened because a UW-Superior professor, Rhea Das, was an admirer of Schwarzenegger's bodybuilding movies and prevailed on him to visit the campus. This was the late 1970s, and Arnold had not yet become the mega-celebrity "Terminator."

"Basically, he was in his weightlifting days," Beth Sundin, a university spokeswoman, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in 1996. "And one of our professors, Rhea Das, convinced him to lecture here on the philosophy and psychology of sports."

Schwarzenegger was interested but mentioned he had begun a business education in Europe. Further discussion resulted in a plan for Arnold to teach five workshops on campus and, later, finish an undergraduate business degree by correspondence.

He did, in 1979, and then in 1996, when he'd become truly famous, Schwarzenegger was invited back to Superior to get an honorary doctorate in letters. Arnold picked it up in person and was quoted saying: "I tell you, this is absolutely fantastic." ...

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. Wow. Some good news!

I have been so disheartened by this recall. At first I thought it was nonsense and impossible, then this past week it seemed like a done deal, and a sure bet we would end up with Gov. Schwarzenegger. Have even been trying to convince myself it's not so bad, Arnold is more moderate than the other top Repubs in this race...but God, I don't want the Repubs to win this one. It's just wrong.

I just hope there's time before Oct. 7 for the voters to wake up and realize that this is not a joke, or a movie. And maybe, just maybe, that judge will intervene. If the election goes forward, it will be a huge mess because of the ballots and will be contested forever.

[proud patriot]

20. Repukes are splitting their vote

between 4 candidates .. :D

[CMT]

21. My guess is that many of the undecideds are Democrats

If you add the percentages for the top Republicans it comes to 47%--Cruz has 25%--Arianna has 4% and The Green 2%--app. 20% of statewide voters are undecided--given that the GOP candidates already have about 47% between them and given the Dem edge in registration in the state the undecideds should be Democrats by and large.

Bottom line--Vote No on Recall and Yes on Cruz.

[jos]

28. I agree

Which means that Cruz has only one way to go -- up!

[JackSwift]

22. No on Recall, Yes on Bustamante!

This is good news. Judge Fogel, whom I have appeared in front of and who is a good judge, may also throw us a bone, but I'm not holding my breath. I was unfamiliar with the Voting Rights Act (white guy living in Cal), but it does look interesting. Schwarzenegger will have a very tough time if the election is in March.

And I can also tell you guys that Bustamante is a savvy politician who does things by the book. You can bet that someone in the party told Gray that Bustamante was running, that Gray didn't like it, but that Gray wasn't going to get any money unless he put up with it. The latino activists and the latino community are very proud of Bustamante (with good cause) and are going to back him with pride.

[IndianaGreen]

34. Davis is going down no matter what one reads in DU

and the sooner the California Democrats close ranks behind Bustamante the sooner the Democrats can defeat a divided opposition.

Not even Jesus Christ can save Davis!

[aquart]

37. I wouldn't ask him to. It's up to the voting Democrats to save Davis.

Not because of Davis. Because of the VOTE. Davis was chosen by VOTE.

THAT is what must be defended. To abandon Davis is to abandon the vote.

It IS that simple.

[NNN0LHI]

41. Maybe Jesus Christ can't save Davis. But Clinton may be able to n/t

[TacticalPeek]

67. In this thread, you seem contrarian...

but I agree with this notion, even though I haven't followed CA politics much since I lived there many moons ago.

In my view, nobody has political chops even close to The Big Dog's, probably nobody in the last fifty years. IF it is true that he is helping Davis to stay, I know where I would place my bet. Also, it is the right thing to do, since there is no malfeasance even claimed, or other nonpolitical justification.

[joefree1]

55. What Davis do to you?

Davis has been counted out many times before. But never mind because this time we get to play the numbers game with the safe vote.

Recall No, Bustamante Yes!
Recall No, Bustamante Yes!
Recall No, Bustamante Yes!
Recall No, Bustamante Yes!
Recall No, Bustamante Yes!
Recall No, Bustamante Yes!




http://stoptherecall.com

[Julien Sorel]

24. If Bustamante wins, it could be a huge boost to Dems.

Not just because they keep the governorship, of course, but because there would be a Hispanic, Democratic governor of the largest state in the union. Bustamante could be a powerful campaign force for Dems in the Hispanic community. It would be the sweetest poetic justice if Republican strategy completely backfired, and cost them support, not just in California, but across the country as well.

[onehandle]

42. Also, Republicans would have Wasted $70+ Million Dollars!

To replace a Dem with a Dem! Our party could release statistics on what this could have bought (schools, infrastructure, etc) and the GOP will look like the Total Partisan Schmucks they are!

[LiberalFighter]

48. Media has been focusing some on the cost ot the election lately

Especially with the local election boards worrying about the cost and whether they can afford it. Also, hoping that the state will cover the cost of the election after it is over.

The judges were stupid in not having the election held during the primary.

It should be done as Senate elections when there is a vacancy filled by an appointed person. Election held at the next general election. Even then it depends on how much time is remaining in the term.

[jamesinca]

25. Well if Arnold is trailing

and somebody in DC reads the analysis by the guy from U.C. Berkley, I bet Simon and Uberoth and all of the other Repugs drop out and leave Arnold in it. Especially if they think he can win it for them. He is surrounding himself with the likes of former Gov. Wilson, George Schultz and other highly visable repugs. Watch out people, this is really going to happen, he is going to surround himself with people and try to sell himself on what they know. Bush did this, he surrounded himself with people and he got into office on what they know.

[davidinalameda]

26. just a put a smile on my face!

we might be able to keep the governorship after all!

[jos]

29. Can anyone say, "Governor Bustamante"

Given the nature of the field, and the fact that Arnold will not wear well over time, it makes perfect sense that Bustamante will win in a state like California.

[Cronus Protagonist]

31. It's early yet - Bill SImon is the stealth candidate

He lost by only a small percentage to Davis and he's got Lou Sheldon and the Mormon church planning to block vote for him. In this election, a small percentage of people can swing the election and he's got the hard-right vote sewn up. http://billsimon.org


Fair & Balanced Buttons — The Cronus Connection

[IndianaGreen]

36. Precisely!

Arnold is seen as GOP-Lite by the rightwing, including our pal Jim Rob in Fresno, so the rightwing vote will go elsewhere.

The problem for the rightwing is that they are divided between Simon, and the hard right McClintock.

The problem for the Democrats is that they are sending a mixed message when they tell people to reject the recall but to vote for Bustamante just in case. Voters become easily confused when they get conflicting signals.

BTW, the reason there is a mixed message is because the California Democrats are themselves divided between the total anti-recall Davis-Feinstein-McCauliff faction, and the realist Bustamante faction.

[rocktivity]

44. If the GOP were serious, Simon would have been THE candidate

Either that, or they would have stuck with Issa. I'm glad to see that it's dawning on California voters that replacing Davis with a man who's both a dilletante AND a neophyte won't solve anything. Or maybe they realize that this recall is an insult wrapped in a farce wrapped in a coup attempt. And if Arnold is serious about to going into politics, he should start at the bottom like everybody else.

(Picks up and shakes maracas)
VOTE NO RECALL, YES BUSTAMANTE!

on edit (thanks to makesticker.com):

That's better.


rocknation

[kentuck]

45. He will be....when Arnold drops out....

Because there's no way the rightwing of the Repub Party is going to vote for a pro-choice, pro-gay candidate. It ain't gonna happen.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

32. Gooooooo Cruz!

I will vote No on recall, but I am also hoping we get our first Latino governor!

[NNN0LHI]

35. Didn't Arnold have over 40% of the vote just last week? How that happen?

[aquart]

38. Q rating. Sheer recognition factor. Image.

Easily beaten by reality.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

57. Warren Buffet...

Arnie's economic advisor dared to speak out about messing with CA's third rail of politics -- Prop. 13.

You don't talk about repealing/tinkering with 13 and survive.

Heh heh.

[Minstrel Boy]

39. when's the debate?

I'd thought that's when Bustamente will break away from the pack. But will expectations for Arnold be spun so low that, so long as he doesn't just oil up and stand there flexing, it'll be said he "held his own"?

[Walt Starr]

43. Once the BCFEE pushes out Simon and McClintock

Ahnuld will have it sewn up.

Intelligent Democrats in California who are willing to stoop to the level of the Repukes should be campaigning for McClintock who is the real conservative in this race (and scares the shit out of Bush and the PNAC bunch).

McClintock is the key to defeating Ahnuld. Split the GOP votes between those two (with Simon being the icing on the cake), and Bustamante wins in a cake walk.

[CTLawGuy]

49. Pushing out Simon and McClintock won't work

the religious right would rather stay home than vote for Arnold. They despise him. The religious right's distate for him is what will kill his candidacy.

[Cronus Protagonist]

62. Have you been to billsimon.org?

http://billsimon.org - enjoy :)


Fair & Balanced Buttons — The Cronus Connection

[Noordam]

50. Can you think what a Gov. Bustamante would do to ads in

Texas.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

IMHO, Davis should resign, and Clinton and all the Dems get behind Cruz.

[diplomats]

51. Some people did say Arnold's numbers peaked when he announced

Michael Tomasky has a good article about how Arnold won't win (I don't have a link. I think I saw it on www.americanpolitics.com). BTW, this poll is getting LOTS of media coverage on cable.

[Marlie]

52. Poor Arnold

As others have noted, he's getting pretty old to play in action
movies - he couldn't really act his way out of a paper bag, his
last few films have bombed yet his ego wants him to stay in the
lime light. What other way than be Governor? Hopefully, if people
have any common sence he will lose big and retire from public
life forever. Hasta La Vista Arnold!!

[PATRICK]

53. Reagan joins Arnold's team

Who else can they throw in?

[joefree1]

56. Rob Lowe

Hee hee, it's the campaign of bad actors with questionable pasts.

Recall No, Bustamante Yes!




http://stoptherecall.com

[schultzee]

58. I am going to pray for this one! Hope the pigs don't try to steal

the election like they did in Florida more than once.

[rook1]

60. Who are the pig's?

Calling people or groups pigs is beneath you.



......Bustamante is going to be the next Governor of California. I wished everyone would calm down. First, Arnold is not a conservative. He may be a registered Republican but he is not one....more like a moderate Demoocrat. It doesn't matter. He is wrong for California.
Cruz will be it.

[hippiechick]

61. I don't understand. ....

Why every discussion in the media about this conveniently leaves out any mention of the option to vote NO on the recall and leave Davis in office ??



We all know that 99% of the sheep aren't even going to be aware that letting Davis continue on is a possibility because the media is 'impeaching by omission'. :mad:


:hippie:

[gauguin57]

63. nbc just reported this

Brian Williams just said Bustamante is 3 points ahead of Arnie Ze Bahrbahrian, but that the poll margin of error is plus/minus 5 points or whatever. So, it's basically a very close race. If Davis IS, indeed recalled. Which ain't a done deal.

Damn ... why isn't Martin Sheen running? He could be president on TV and governor in real life!

Or how about Rob Reiner? I'd trust Reiner or Sheen over Swarzenegger any day (to run the state that Dubya just called "the largest state in the union." Uh ... Mister pResident* ... check your geography book).

[AlGore-08.com]

65. Reiner and Sheen have too many brains to run for Governor now

Would you want to have to fix the state budget deficit with absolutely no help from the federal government and a tax revenue base that's just going to keep shrinking as the economy slides further downhill?

The reason the recall has as much traction as it does outside of freeper wingnut circles is that people are pissed off about the economy, and they're blaming the Governor. If we had a Republican governor they'd be equally pissed - - we just wouldn't be going through this unconstitutional farce of a recall election.

[dArKeR]

66. Arnie being outmuscled in political arena - IOL

San Francisco - Even with a blitz of media coverage, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger trails his main Democratic opponent in the California recall vote to replace Governor Gray Davis, a poll released on Saturday found.

A Field Poll showed Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, who broke ranks with fellow Democrat Davis to put his name on the ballot, attracted 25 percent support of 629 registered voters surveyed, compared to 22 percent for the star of the Terminator films.

The results indicate that two conservative Republican candidates, state Senator Bill McClintock and businessman Bill Simon, could siphon off enough Republican support to cost Schwarzenegger the California governorship.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=3&art_id=qw1061045821334B214&set_id=1