Is this the year West Nile strikes with a vengeance? Back in the spring, public-health officials were divided over how bad this summer's outbreak would be. Last year the mosquito-borne disease resulted in more than 4,000 cases and nearly 300 deaths, and heavy spring rains led some local experts to predict a mosquito baby boom and an explosion of cases in 2003. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was more cautious. The outbreak was likely to be as bad as last year's, said the CDC, but because diseases like West Nile spread so unpredictably, nobody could say for sure whether the disease peaked last summer or was still getting worse.
Now we're headed into the virus's late-summer sweet spot, and the CDC reported last week that the number of West Nile cases has begun to shoot up — right on schedule. By week's end, 470 cases — and 10 deaths — had been reported in the U.S., in 25 states from Florida to Wyoming. That's three times as many cases as in the previous week and nearly twice as many compared with the same time last year.
But the CDC was right to hedge its bets. The number of West Nile deaths was actually slightly higher last year at this time. That, say CDC officials, probably reflects the fact that more people are being tested and milder cases are being reported. "A quarter to a third of the cases last year were considered mild. This year it's up to half," says Dr. Tony Marfin, a CDC scientist who specializes in West Nile disease.
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http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101030825-476292,00.html>
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