In Long Presidential Race, Dean Sprints (New Zogby poll shows 38% NH)

[farmbo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/27/politics/campaigns/27DEAN.html



Though polls taken this early in the race can be unreliable predictors, there are statistical signs to back up Dr. Dean's surge in popularity on the street. Zogby International, an independent firm, is scheduled to release Wednesday a poll showing Dr. Dean leading in New Hampshire with 38 percent of the vote to 17 percent for Senator John Kerry; in early July Senator Kerry had 25 percent to Dr. Dean's 22 percent. The poll has a margin of sampling error of 4.5 percentage points.

The staggering, seemingly spontaneous crowds turning up to meet him — 10,000 in Seattle Sunday and at least as many packing Bryant Park in Manhattan last night — are unheard of in these young days of the race, when most candidates concentrate on the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, and would seem formidable even in October 2004.

[MercutioATC]

1. I'm just happy I'll NEVER have to hear again that Dean doesn't lead

any polls outside the MOE. The last ARG poll and now this Zogby poll say otherwise.

Granted, it IS too early for reliable results, but It's great to see Dean leaping ahead like this in two polls in a row...

[Born Free]

12. Draft Gore pledge, but gave to Dean

I pledged to contribute to any Gore campaign, but after hearing more about Dean, we sent him a small check as well. The three names I am watching are Gore-Dean-Clark, I am not sure how it will pan out but I think any of the three could be a winner. A ticket with Gore/Clarke or Dean/Clarke would be tough to beat and certainly could do a better job getting America back on track for "Peace and Prosperity" . I am sure that most Americans had enough of the current shit and ready for "Peace and Prosperity" The democrats just need to ask "Did you have enough yet?" "Are you ready to go back to Peace and Prosperity" ? Every day I read more about Dean and impressed. I remember when the first Bush was thought unbeatable and Clinton a long shot - Clinton showed us you can win if you don't give up, you just need to keep focused and keep fighting. Hell, he got so good at fighting he would taunt the right wingers, driving them up the wall, Dean may be the same type of fighter, either Dean or Gore with Clark as VP.

[gasperc]

18. I wonder if Clarke would consider Dean?

Not that I favor one or the other. But should it come down to that, I think that would still be a strong ticket.

[Mackay]

2. The reason this campaign is electric

is that people can feel the optimism. Nothing catches on like optimism and it is only going to snowball from here.

The people who care are pushing this thing... and the general public is going to hop on for the ride. No one is going to want to vote for the pessimism that the Repugs have been dishing out... people can only live in fear for so long. In the end, people want hope.

Dean doesn't sound like a whiner... he sounds like a winner. He acts like a winner... and a leader. He didn't just accidentally get more campaign money than the other candidates... his leadership choices made it happen. And he isn't afraid to tackle Bush on all the issues the others want to tiptoe around.

Seeing those signs in the Seattle rally made me believe that the U.S. could one day be a democracy again.

I would vote for Lucifer over Bush... but with about the same amount of enthusiasm as I would for many of the other Dem candidates.

I pegged Clark as a good vp if only for the square jawed types that seem to be in abundant supply. I would prefer someone liberal, but a winning ticket is the most essential thing.

[tedoll78]

3. Yup. It's the top of the ticket that matters.

The top is the real prize, while the bottom of the ticket is there to help attain victory. I personally will take anyone left of McCain, as long as Dean is the one at the top - the person who actually gets to make the important decisions.

[Arun29]

5. Re: Lucifer

"I would vote for Lucifer over Bush"

Oh, that's a good one Mackay. I have to say it would be anfully tough decision, the lesser of two evils if you will. Question is, is Lucifer less evil than Bush? Maybe not, but certainly not as dumb.

[Atlant]

15. Better to vote for the puppeteer than the marionette, ehh? :-) (NT)

[dean4america]

4. outstanding

38-17, outside the MOE, and with the BIG BIG MO behind him... that's going to look outstanding coming out of the Sleepless Summer tour.

Oh, and there's that little matter of another million in the bank for Dean...

If Trippi's saying they will get 10.3, my guess is they KNOW they can get 12.5, and with another bat breaking out in the waning days of the 3Q, maybe even 13.5 or more.

This IS a movement, no doubt about it.

[David Zephyr]

6. Howard Dean and His Brilliant Campaign Are Re-Writing All the Rules

Dr. Dean has turned the conventional wisdom of Washington upside down.

His Sleepless Summer Tour around the nation is generating huge crowds, drawing in young supporters, grabbing headlines with local newspapers and television stations, raising literally millions of more dollars, and pretty much making the obvious even more obvious, that it is time for some of the other lack-luster candidates to graciously drop out of the race.

This is how we will beat George W. Bush in 2004.

Simply amazing.

[farmbo]

7. Congressman Major Owen's endorsement tonight was huge!

With Al Sharpton and Carol Mosley Braun still in the race, its been hard to convince black elected officials, community leaders and pastors to endorse any of the other candidates.

Perhaps this will break up the log jam.

[markses]

10. Major Owens is a savvy force to be reckoned with

Aside from some pretty nasty business running against one of his former proteges in 2000 (first in the primaries, then again when she went indy for the general), Owens is the Man in Brooklyn.

Don't forget that he represents, among other areas, Park Slope, an almost natural Dean district with lots of voters who VOTE. Check the lines at Park Slope polling places on election day. People wait hours.

Agreed that Owens endorsement is tremendous, as he will deliver tons of votes from his district in the primaries. The man's a machine.

[asjr]

8. Dean

I watched Dean on C-Span2 tonight and he was very good. I could sense the electricity that was there. I have seen many many candidates in my time, but none who have caught the imagination of so many people. There were young people, old people, and even children there. I think the momentum will continue. I wonder if Clark will run as his vice-president. If Clark and Dean have been talking it could be that is what Clark will announce later. Talk about a dream team!

[tedoll78]

9. His campaign is being so well-run!

Trippi is doing an EXCELLENT job at keeping Dean in the spotlight. The Sleepless Summer Tour gets gobs of media attention all over the country.

Congressional endorsements get more media attention.

Little things, like singing a baseball song and waving a bat get more attention.

The MeetUps each month are guaranteed attention all over the country in local and national outlets.

And then, at the end of September, Dean's fundraising will get Huge attention.. with a capital 'H.'

Trippi is just making sure that - either by gimmick or by major event/decision - Dr Dean's name is constantly in the news. If he keeps this up, the image of "momentum" will be maintained. With this image comes greater poll numbers, which garners even more attention and an even greater aura of momentum. My question: what will they think of next?

This should be interesting.

[dfong63]

11. wow!!!

[NickDanger]

13. Can't win; don't waste your energy. Clark, maybe Kerry, or else Bush.

Don't whine in 2004 when it sadly comes true.

[Atlant]

16. Thanks for your dramatic contribution to Democratic victory in '04. (NT)

[Wednesdays]

22. And your very detailed explanation

and analysis, Nick.

[NickDanger]

24. It's got to be Clark

He's the only one who can beat Bush on the military angle. He is smart, looks good, and has the military and intellectual bonafides to dust AWOL.

Beyond those reasons, my gut tells me Dean can't win--and I want Bushco out of office passionately.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

19. LOL

Yeah, he's got no chance...no one even knows his name. Oh wait, that was what they said 6 months ago.

Kate O'Connor says: After the rally we flew back to Vermont. We got back to 1:30am, and the Gov. and I got into my car and I drove him home. On the way he said to me, "Wow, we've come a long way since our office was over the doctor's office." The Gov. was talking about the fact that just one year ago Dean for America was a small office (20' x 12') on the second floor of a beat up carriage house in Montpelier, Vermont. We had two employees, two computers, some folding metal chairs and a couple of used tables. We didn't have much, and people didn't give us much of a chance. But what we did have is the one thing that counts most: a candidate with a message.
www.blogforamerica.com

Dean is unstoppable!

[Le Taz Hot]

20. You're kind of a one-trick-pony, aren't you?

OK, now, close your eyes, click your heels three times and repeat, "Dean can't win. Dean can't win. Dean can't win." Feel better now?

[sendero]

14. A friend..

... of mine, whose political judgements are very good, keeps telling me "Dean's peaking too early".

To which I reply, "what makes you think he's peaking?"

I suppose you could spend all your money too early and have to watch as other eat away your lead. But I just don't see this happening. Dean's fundraising abilities will get better as he gains in the polls, not worse.

To the folks who say "these early polls don't mean anything" - I would say "sure, tell that to Edwards". They don't mean as much as a poll taken days before the election, but they *do* mean something.

[Atlant]

17. In New Hampshire, we're still running the campaign primarily on...

In New Hampshire, we're still running the campaign primarily on
individual human energy, not money.

I don't believe we're anywhere NEAR our peak yet.

Atlant

[sendero]

21. Great...

... if I have to choose between having momentum working with me or against me, I think I'll go with "with me".

Like Dean or not, he has tremendous momentum. Lucky for me, I kinda like him :)

[VolcanoJen]

23. kick

:dem: