http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/191055_iraqintel16.htmlThursday, September 16, 2004
CIA analysis holds bleak vision for Iraq's future
Worst case is steps to civil war, say those who have seen report
By DOUGLAS JEHL
THE NEW YORK TIMES
WASHINGTON -- A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said yesterday.
The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, and the worst case is developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome is an Iraq whose political, economic and security stability would remain tenuous.
"There's a significant amount of pessimism," said one government official who has read the document, which runs about 50 pages. The officials declined to discuss the document's key judgments -- concise, carefully written statements of intelligence analysts' conclusions.
The intelligence estimate, the first on Iraq since October 2002, was prepared by the National Intelligence Council and was approved by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under John McLaughlin, the CIA's acting director. Such estimates can be requested by the White House or Congress, but government officials said this one was initiated by the intelligence council under George Tenet, who stepped down as CIA director July 9.
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