New Poll Shows Schwarzenegger Up 16 Points (FOX Propaganda)

[ahimsa]

LOS ANGELES — A new poll out Wednesday on the California recall paints a different political picture than a poll out this weekend, putting Arnold Schwarzenegger (search) far out in front of Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (search) for the governor's seat.

According to KABC in Los Angeles, if the election were held today, 45 percent of those surveyed would vote for Schwarzenegger in the Oct. 7 recall election and 29 percent would support Bustamante.

The same poll showed that 64 percent of those surveyed would also recall Democratic Gov. Gray Davis (search), compared to 35 percent who would support keeping him in office.

The KABC poll follows the trend of three other polls in recent weeks, but not one released by the Los Angeles Times this weekend. The Independent Public Policy Institute (search), the Field Poll and an earlier KABC poll showed Californians supporting a Davis recall by at least 8 percent.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95847,00.html

NOTE: edited to add "propaganda" to the subject

[Changenow]

1. 45%?

Why couldn't they come up with a believable number?

[roughsatori]

8. I know LMAO. Sometimes propaganda is funny

Even when you read the linked article it is so skewed and misleading. It is amazing how corporate news entertainment use polls and discussions of pools to mislead people. Even here at DU people have been spouting poll numbers of blatantly unscientific polling practices.

The article only mentions 4 polls. Three favoring Arnold and the One favoring Bustamante. Of course there is no discussion of if the people polled were registered voters or of what party they belonged too.

Or for that matter how many other polls they had to ignore to get the results they wanted.

[KittyWampus]

9. Like Ashcroft's Fox Poll Numbers?

Which say 90% Americans support the Patriot Act?

[IndianaGreen]

25. I doubt that this poll can be trusted

For one thing, from where did Arnold's new support come from? Certainly it wasn't from Simon, who was polling at a paltry 6 percent. Did an entire new population of Arnold's voters just sprung up out of thin air?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

2. Right wing skewed polls.....see this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=234092

[jos]

4. Thank you

Survey USA is a "crap" poll. It's an automated response thing. Totally unscientific.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

6. ABC poll translated = DISNEY HATES UNIONS!

[KCDem]

3. can somebody say "Bullshit"?

:shrug:

[Richardo]

10. "Les déféqué du taureau!"

Pardon my French... :-)

[CMT]

5. it is all going to come down to turnout

I trust the LA Times poll and Field Poll, both which have Cruz ahead more than this poll.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ahimsa]

13. Good try?

I wondered if I was going to get skewered for a Fox News link. I guess you'd rather not know what they (and an unfortunate number of sheeple) consider breaking news?

:shrug:

NOTE: That's why I put (FOX!) in the subject, so you could ignore it. I just changed it to (FOX Propaganda) - hope that helps..
NOTE: Edited to add the note above.

[PartyPooper]

11. Regarding contradictory polls and California recall (link)

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/08/27/MN301418.DTL

:dem:

[slackmaster]

14. Good article!

"What it tells us is that there is no conviction -- and it's not too surprising that there is not so much conviction about something so unusual, and bizarre, as this," said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. "It's going to be a struggle for pollsters."

I think he's right. Most people I have discussed the recall with are undecided.

[twilight]

12. go to Taco Bell and cryyy loser!

The only thing anhuld the numbscull will win is a beef taco from taco bell!

:puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke:

[UrbScotty]

15. It's a lock.

Brit Hume: "We at FAUX News are happy to call Ah-nuld the winner of the California election, six weeks ahead of time.

"It's a certainty, now, because our polling puts the Governator in an insurmountable lead over the others."

</sarcasm>

[PROGRESSIVE1]

16. Goebbels would be proud!!!

Bitch Hume is such a "great, decent, human being"!!!


(satire)

[ahimsa]

17. Related: Schwarzenegger for president? Not so fast, poll finds (CNN)

LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) -- Governor Schwarzenegger? Maybe. President Schwarzenegger? Not so fast.

Those are the results from a new CNN/USA TODAY/ Gallup poll on the possible political future of actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the leading Republican candidate in California's gubernatorial recall race.

The national poll found that 42 percent of all Americans -- not just Californians -- would vote for Schwarzenegger as governor in their state -- not enough to win but a hefty chunk of votes for a political newcomer. (In California, however, if voters decide to oust Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, his successor does not have to win a majority of votes, just a plurality.)

But when it comes to leading the country, seven in 10 oppose amending the Constitution to allow U.S. citizens born in another country to become president. That's bad news for the Austrian-born action hero, who under the Constitution would be barred from serving as president even if he wins in California on October 7.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/08/27/arnold.poll/

[PROGRESSIVE1]

18. Thank God for the last part!!!

This great country will be truely lost if this Bimbo became President!

[Wednesdays]

19. In their dreams!

16 points up?? Bwahahahahahahahaha! :silly:

[David__77]

20. Don't be fooled! PLEASE see my posting about this poll!

Don't be fooled! (Skewed polls on CA recall being promoted by right!)

The right-wing Hugh Hewitt Show was hosting Schwarzenegger cheerleader Rep. David Dreier who is promoting a yet-to-be-released "ABC poll" that shows the recall ahead "63% to 35%" with Schwarzenegger leading Bustamante "45% to 29%." I have to use quotes around these figures they're so bogus! Two points need to be made about this poll:

First, the poll was conducted by "Survey USA" (http://www.surveyusa.com/) for a few ABC affiliates. The notable thing about the poll is that the pool of respondees in composed of what Survey USA calls "Certain Voters." This only includes, I have heard, those who have voted in the past two elections and answer other questions satisfactorily. During the 2002 gubernatorial race, the polls, which were more accurate, used a different methodology of "Likely Voters." (See http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html) Of course, narrowing the field to only the most absolutely certain voters will produce a more right-leaning result. With voter interest in this election at a high level, we expect HIGHER turnout than in 11/2002.

Second, the last Survey USA poll on the recall, conducted on 8/9-8/10, showed the recall leading by a WIDER margin of "66% to 32%." AND, Schwarzenegger had a MUCH LARGER lead over Bustamante of "51% to 17%"! (See poll at http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html)If we are to take anything from this new poll, we must see that this poll's Schwarzenegger lead has been better than sliced in half, from 34 points to only 16 points. That is very significant, even in a deeply flawed poll.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=234092

[Gman]

31. Very good analysis

and thanks for the info.

[Voltaire99]

21. If Florida 2000 is a harbinger of elections to come...

...then deliberately skewed poll results will be increasingly necessary as cultural conditioning for the impressionable as we, er, transition from democratic elections to pre-packaged electoral entertainment.

[californication]

22. Hmmm...

Don't you agree that since Kabc Los Angeles conducted this poll they should get the credit they deserve? Or am I missing your point? In my opinion, Fox in this instance is just parroting what the ABC affiliate is reporting.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

23. Yeah so what's your point?

A fan of Fox?

[californication]

24. No. Just A fan of logic.

All I know is I have mouths to feed and instead of using my money to pay for my food and clothes and school supplies for my children I am having to make payments to pay off my 600 dollars in state taxes. I am now having to worry about paying 600 dollars a year for registering my 2 cars (not to include getting the damn things smogged). Yesterday I just forked out 300 dollars in college fee increases. Bustamante is saying tough love which means more increases in taxes that I will have to pay. I only make 72,000 dollars a year (low middle class) and my property taxes and insurance have increased 40 percent. California is in a terrible mess and since me and my spouse voted for Davis I feel betrayed. Maybe I should quit work go on SSI and qualify for a pell grant and get food stamps for my children. That would place me in the lowest income bracket and I can get a refund from the state and Federal for that matter and I would not have to take out anymore student loans. When as democrats can we say enough is enough. Truth be told California Democratic and republilcan governer nominations have been less than desirable last election and it seems to be happening again. Everybody leading Cali is punishing us for working. Davis is making the not so wealthy become really not so wealthy. If you do not beleive me then move out here pay 250,000 for a 3 bedroom shack and 36000 for 2 vehicles and try to live on what I make.

[agincourt]

27. Property tax?

Am I missing something here? I though your valuations could only go up several percent per year.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

29. I live here and pay taxes and bills just like you

and the state was doing fine until Enron. Please explain how Gray Davis is responsible for all of this when he was who lowered your vehicle registration fees and refunded the astronomical fees raised by Pete Wilson in the first place. Perhaps you have forgotten that the state refunded for overcharging for registrations.

Please explain how not being able to submit evidence of fraud to the FERC was his fault. Please explain how decreased revenues from the tech bubble which were created by inflated IPO's rigged by east coast banking establishments was his fault.

Please explain how gas being 2.15 a gallon this weekend is his fault.

Please explain how increased costs to the state every time George Bush and his mighty wurlitzer claim an orange alert is his fault..

Can't do that? I didn't think so.


BTW 72,000 a year is NOT low middle class...wanna blame someone...blame the millionaires Bush gave a tax cut to which meant a SERVICE CUT for me and you.

[californication]

35. Ok

I had a long disertation as to why I feel the way that I do. And I just came to the conclusion that some people feel that way I do and some people feel the way that you do. (That is what makes our country so great right) I could do a line item rebuttal but that would be a waste of your time as well as mine so I am going to agree to disagree with you. Thanks...

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

36. It was a long dissertation void of facts or the actual source of

your suffering...everyone has an opinion...having them be based in what actually happened is certainly not an art form.

[californication]

40. I just don't feel like arguing...

I get the sense that regardless of how it is hurting people like myself (there are many with my opinion)we have to be obey what the powers of be want and keep these sorry excuses for Democrats in.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

42. Nobody is forcing you to do anything but if you think a Republican

with free market ideology is going to make that electric bill payment more affordable for you or do anything to reign in your insurance costs for you vehicles...welcome to fantasyland..here's a balloon. The only time insurance rates dropped meaningfully in California was in the early 90's by ballot proposition.

[robbedvoter]

33. Another one. Read this and call hate radio in the morning:

http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0817-07.htm 
 
Published on Sunday, August 17, 2003 by CommonDreams.org

Ahnuld, Ken Lay, George Bush, Dick Cheney and Gray Davis

[Booberdawg]

38. Hmmmmm

72,000 is low middle class huh?

250,000 3 bedroom home
36,000 2 cars

you poor thing:nopity:

[californication]

43. If I lived where I was born

I would not be saying that... Look, try to find a house in a decent area under 300,000 the housing prices out here are ridiculous. In Santa Barbara alone the Mean housing price is 850,000 and in Riverside county the Mean housing price is about 250,000. The new car prices are ridiculous as well. We are a 2 income family so we need reliable means of transportation so we can pay for people on a corrupt workman's comp system. You guys are missing the point. It is hard enough to live out here without the constant bombardment of tax increases. They need to say OK one more increase and that should be it. These state senators are spending the states money like it was dollar night at the Amsterdam brothels.

Republican or Democrat, California's political environment is always out to hurt the middle class. They have social programs to help the poor so that we can get an education and then get a job so that when we finally make it we will tax the sh** out of you so that you don't get too rich and make you want more handouts. They even count the Aluminum cans that we recycle as income and we have to claim that on our state taxes even though we paid the damn crv on top of the price of my coke.

Hint: The DLC needs to find a real leader for California not some Alfred E Neuman looking robot. We need real solutions not the "Tough Love". Clinton is good at helping run campaigns but no one said he was a miracle worker.

I know I am talking to a brick wall here but I don't care.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

45. Baloney

There are many communities where the median home price is approximately 200,000 dollars. These are not exactly tenements either. The mean price in Riverside county is increased because of ONE community, the majority of homes are affordable.

Workers compensation costs are increased due to LARGE employers opting out of the system thereby leaving the costs of SOLVENCY to SMALL employers. YOur interests and theirs are not the same..
That is if you are a small employer.

So far all of your posts have been ripe with republican talking points so it is difficult to tell.

YOu claim to make over $70,000 a year. IF you cannot make it on that then there is something wrong with you. If you bought in an are with Mello-Roos financing then that is nobody's fault but your own.

BTW, those home prices are going through the roof not because of a shortage of housing but because of an inflated market. It happened just before the real estate crash in the late 80's too.

California has a stronger middle class than many states so I don't know where you get that from.

Please give me some specifics.

as I pointed out, Davis REDUCED license registration fees for the majority of his term. They were raised by WILSON so you are ahead of the game if you have owned cars in the last 5 years since fees were DRASTICALLY reduced his FIRST year in office.

Please PROVE your aluminum cans are taxed as income...unless you are cashing in greater than $600.00 per year and not saving your grocery receipts...I smell a TURD!

[californication]

46. Dude or Dudette

The cans is an Item listed in the Kiplinger tax program. I do not recycle cans so I do not claim them as income...

You tell me just where is the money going which justifys re-raising the car fees. Then you tell me does that make Davis now just as bad as that piece of crap pete wilson.



Workers compensation costs are increased due to LARGE employers opting out of the system thereby leaving the costs of SOLVENCY to SMALL employers. YOur interests and theirs are not the same..
That is if you are a small employer.


****PROVE IT*****

(Both sides of the house suggest there needs to be Workmans comp reform)

California has a stronger middle class than many states so I don't know where you get that from.

*Depends on what you are calling middle class.


How much do you make?


There are many communities where the median home price is approximately 200,000 dollars.

Yeah if you want to live in where the helicopters fly at night.

Your shit stinks too.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

50. OK let's take a look at your last post and evaluate your objectivity

The cans is an Item listed in the Kiplinger tax program. I do not recycle cans so I do not claim them as income...

So you complain about an item listed as income in an online tax service program as though that has SQUAT to do with the California economy or the budget crisis.

You tell me just where is the money going which justifys re-raising the car fees. Then you tell me does that make Davis now just as bad as that piece of crap pete wilson.

Experts have reviewed the budget (reasonable Republicans and centrists) and confirmed there isn't much room left to trim. All levels of state services took some cuts but for private prisons and find me a Dem or Republican that is going to reduce the cost of that black hole into which people and tax money are sucked. Voters voted for more prisons, built by bonds...they for got to have their employees funded by bonds as well.

Where would you cut? education? Davis was popularly elected to increase funds in education 5 years ago. The public wanted that. Helthcare? Davis was elected to STOP the closure of trauma centers and spend more on healthcare 5 years ago.

The fact of the matter is that a 1/2 cent sales tax was rejected which would have OFFSET the pain and the vehicle fees. It was rejected by the same ideologues who approved it when Wilson asked for the same.

THe energy crisis precipitated the first downgrading of our bonds which increased the price of borrowed money and therefore our deficit.

Re work comp
****PROVE IT*****

Read this post:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=86710&mesg_id=87543&page=

What you know about work comp in this state could barely fill my thumbnail but when I finish writing my book, I shall let you read it and then what you know will fill my other thumbnail

California has a stronger middle class than many states so I don't know where you get that from.

*Depends on what you are calling middle class.

Median income in the nation is in the mid 40,000 range. Median income in California is about the same. Housing is higher but energy costs are lower than many areas especially the east.

There are many communities where the median home price is approximately 200,000 dollars.

Yeah if you want to live in where the helicopters fly at night.

Sounds a bit paranoid and void of facts. THis is becoming a pattern with you.

Your shit stinks too.

Fine but do try to rebut my facts with facts. That is the first fact you have ponied up.

[californication]

48. Go Here....

I did what you requested and found an unbiased opinion... Ignore the previous post and I apologize for saying your shit stinks too.


go here....

http://www.facsnet.org/tools/biz_econ/blame.php

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

52. I'm not certain I agree with all the intial paragraphs especially the one

on deregulation as THAT story is far more complex than the author allows for. I don't have the time to go into the long story, but one MUST remember that Davis VETOED many spending bills and the majority of budgets passed over the last five years were passed by BOTH parties with rather equal parity and little battle. It was only this years battle that was a showdown and a minor increase in sales tax WOULD have cut the downgrading of the bond rating which WOULD have reduced the cost of borrwing money.

The article also does NOT address that California as a tax base pays BILLIONS MORE to the federal tax base compared to what we get back as a state...in fact close to 60 billion more according to a report that came out this week or last. Congress has a policy for appropriations called ABC (anywhere but California...drive the interstates in Mississippi sometime...find me a pothole)

I DO however ENTIRELY agree with the final paragraph in that people DO need to decide if they want a service CUT or a tax increase. If you are living that close to the vest (and NO I do not think 70 grand is a HUGE amount of money if one has children and two vehicles) you may wish to reconsider if you really want to see service cuts... as should good fortune pass you by, you and your children may NEED those services.

BTW a HUGE cost passed to us this year and last has been law enforcement and the increased costs of cops and other emergency services being put on high alert over bullshit political gaming.

[reprobate]

53. And not a word about enron in the entire article.

Bullshit!

California's entire fiscal problem started with enron. Actually it started with Whistle Ass's desire for revenge on california, and he sure does like his revenge served hot.

The entire scheme was intended to destroy Davis politically. By running up the price of energy they were able to drain the state's treasury. This put davis in a bind because the entire federal government was arrayed to deny him any refunds from the energy cabal.

Of course, the fact that no mainline media would tell the people of the state the truth may have had something to do with why the people turned on davis. If you don't get the truth, you wind up believing whatever the propaganda machine tells you to.

IMHO, the bush defecits are designed to put the states in a position to bankrupt all of them. Remember what Grover Norquist said: We intend to shrink government to the point that we can drown it in the bathtub (my paraphrase). That includes the states that voted democrat.

If I may make a suggestion, you will find that you learn more if you start from the position that ALL politicians lie. Republicans just have more practice at it.

Someday, when the country has been returned to the people, I hope that whoever is in charge of the justice dept will look seriously at the republican party as a candidate for prosecution under the RICCO statutes. Study history and you will see that EVERY dastardly deed perpetrated on the people of america in the last half century has been done by republicans.

Watergate
Iran-contra
October Surprise
Conspiracy to impeach
Massive electoral fraud
Supreme court conspiracy to overturn an election
Using outright lies to convince the country to go to war
Intentionally causing defecits intended to destroy the gov't


And many more that slip my mind right now.

Wake up and smell the shit that your repug buddies are dumping on your state.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

54. Thanks, now all I need on this post is Salin's expertise in explaining the

origins of the energy crisis and the manner in which consitions were set prior to ANY dereg laws being passed that allowed for this robbery. She is able to explain it in a way anyone can get it...from bribing CALPERG and the PUC which allowed the dereg bill to be passed to the manner in which Michael Milkin met with Ken Lay and created the S&L crisis in the energy market. (Wish I had her knack for explaining THIS policy)

One last note to Californication, I know you were attempting to be objective but please note that NOT ONE consumer oriented organisation is listed on the board of the site you listed..therefore by definition objectivity is missing.

[californication]

55. Ok Ok you beat me into submission....

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

57. Now come on!!! I posted on a broad range of subjects and took the time

to explain my positions...and you're going to leave me with that?

Yeah..I communicate forcefully...I don't see much of a point in pussyfooting around with a very close election and people's lives in the balance.

I TRULY believe that any further service cuts in a state with 36 million people will be DISASTROUS...I remember the late 80's and the S&L crisis....the RTC and RICH people picked up the property lost by the not so rich at bargain basement prices.

[David__77]

44. Bustamante would lower this posters' taxes.

Bustamante supports and plan, as does Davis, that will reduce car registration fees and raise this revenue from income taxes on those making over 300,000 per year. I presume this poster does not make that much... though I don't know.

[ahimsa]

26. KABC Propaganda

That's what I meant to say. Look:

http://www.kabc.com/listingsEntry.asp?ID=113030&PT=

This might explain why Fox would parrot KABC. At least KABC isn't pretending to be "fair and balanced."

[trapper914]

47. I believe the poll was KABC T.V.

Not the right wing radio outlet. I could be wrong.

[Gman]

28. They're getting desparate already

and can't stand it.

It's very conspicuous that they don't publish the questions asked, the demographic breakdown, or the political persuasion breakdown.

This "poll" is so out in left field, it's ridiculous. It doesn't even track close to anything else.

It is pure propaganda by an organization that claims to be a news outlet. It's U.S. right wing government controlled media propaganda.

[robbedvoter]

30. I wonder what did it: the orgies? The gay marriage man-woman?

The promise to raise taxes? Hard to pick one! Thanks Fux!

[maggrwaggr]

32. How do you take a poll in California for Chrissake?

I mean GOOD GOD it changes so drastically from county to county, neighborhood to neighborhood, city to city ....

You could ask 50,000 random people in California and each time get a completely different answer.

[PartyPooper]

34. For an answer, read my post above #11

:dunce:

[tlb]

37. If three polls say Arnold is in the lead and one says he isn't

it makes more sense to call the L.A. Times story " propaganda". Or maybe instead it's just what the polling industry warns us against. No single poll should be given much weight. It's cumulative polling results that show the trends.

It gets really old seeing the SAME complaints about every poll that doesn't fit in with the boards wishes, and praise and joy for every poll that is bad news for republicans. Good news or bad news should be dealt with honestly.

Self deception is a losing proposition.

[jos]

41. This is not a legitimate poll

as I pointed out above. It is a "crap" poll. And the Field poll, the most respected poll in California, also had Cruz ahead.

[Sweetpea]

39. Maybe they meant his pole is up by 16 degrees.

[tom_paine]

49. (yawn) Just setting the backstory for the Theft

We seen it before.

It is the MO of the Imperial Family.

Lie. If caught, answer with 6 more lies. Push forward. Ignore.

Write the backstory that predicts the outcome you have already arranged.

Bye bye, Old American Republic. Your corpse isn't even cold and already I miss you terribly.

[barbaraann]

51. Tom McClintock said on Fox that this poll is wrong.

He said on John Gibson's show that it is wildly out of sync with the three major CA polls on the race.

And, actually, I think McClintock is a liar, even though he doesn't have an ounce of human compassion.

[barbaraann]

56. Drat! I meant to say i DON'T think McClintock is a liar.

I apologize for this stupid typo.