STOCK MARKET WATCH FRIDAY, AUGUST 29.......(#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday August 29, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 513
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 285
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 260 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 318 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 160
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 644
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 28, 2003

DJIA 9,374.21 +40.42 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,800.18 +18.05 (+1.01%)
S&P 500 1,002.84 +6.05 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.430% -0.106 (-2.34%)
Gold future 371.60 -2.80 (-0.75%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Scott Middleton

Imagine Being a “Bear”

As the summer doldrums wind to a close this week, and with the “real” traders on vacation, the indexes have pushed their way into the upper atmosphere. Today’s action saw the Nasdaq fall just short of the 1,800 level, while at the same time the S&P 500 Index managed to close above the 1,000 level for the first time since the middle of July. If you thought today’s volume was low, wait until you see Friday’s total. Come Tuesday everyone will be anticipating some fireworks.

With the usual suspects of economic reports for Thursday, traders ignored the data and simply traded on speculation and took advantage of the exceptionally low volume. Data reported today included a revised GDP figure for the 2nd Quarter 2003. The adjusted figure was increased to 3.1 percent rate of growth, up from the 2.4 percent originally reported. And the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits rose 3,000 to 394,000, keeping the 4-week average under the 400,000 level for the fourth straight week.

With vacations winding down and preparations for the activity to pick up next week here is some of the data that many traders will be looking at come Tuesday. According to Laszlo Birinyi, who runs Biriyni Associates, investors may be a little irrational now because they are buying just about anything out there. Some of the best performers are simply the stocks that were pummeled in 2002, and many of those same stocks are of companies that have no earnings or very little earnings compared with their stock price.

more...

[Maeve]

2. Good morning and a pleasant Friday to you all!

I'm in need of this long weekend, so I can afford to be cheerful!
:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

For anyone who feels intimidated by the financial sites and their explanation of stock markets, here's a link to the Straight Dope explaination (arrived in my e-mail today and I thought I'd pass it along)
How does the Stock Market Work?

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Maeve.

It is a welcome break this weekend. According to Scott Middleton, we appear to need some rest in advance of the reckoning on Tuesday.

Right back at you...

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

[JNelson6563]

3. Good Morning Marketeers!

Hey Ozy--I caught that wrap-up. Kinda portends dark things........a surprise to no one here.

Maeve great link.

So are we in for a ridiculously low-volume day again? What will the Greenman say today?

Will be keeping an eye on it all right along with you (in between all the glamourous things I do throughout day of course).

Happy Friday to all--

Julie

[ozymandius]

5. Hi Julie.

How is that little girl's smile coming along?

Like I mentioned above, commenting to Maeve - this little bit of low volume and and extra day of rest will be welcome and necessary, it seems. I am looking forward to Monday as the news will no doubt be a trickle and the markets are closed.

Whatever the Green Man says today will be of little consequence, IMO. Tuesday will show how numbers are supposed to look.

[ozymandius]

7. And another thing about those greenhorn traders...

I keep looking at my IRA, how the numbers never seem to change (from half their original investment value) during the times when "the stock market's looking up," as Shrub says. I almost wish we could have an extended holiday with these less experienced folks on the trading floor so that I could dump my stocks and move into something more reliable. Right now, though, I would just lose too much money for this to be painless.

[JNelson6563]

23. gold looks good

:-)

No telling. I am working on putting a list together and will PM what I come up with. So long as you remember it isn't worth the bandwidth it's written on. ;-)

Good luck on it Ozy, hope you come out ok.

Julie

[ozymandius]

25. Thanks Julie.

The reality of that ever happening (breaking even) sounds almost like a pipe dream as I have been waiting two years to make such a move. Actually, if I recall correctly, It was July of 2001 when this idea occurred to me.

[JNelson6563]

6. Will the fresh violence in Iraq

play into the markets today? Looks like "incidents" over there are getting bigger, not your basic picking off a soldier or two at a time.

To me this screams "asshole at the helm of the good ship USA".

Julie

[ozymandius]

12. Shocking violence

I see that youhave read this story already in LBN.

Four Killed in Car Bombing in Iraq

BAGHDAD, Iraq - A car bomb exploded at the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf during Friday prayers, killing at least four people, including one of Iraq (news - web sites)'s most important Shiite clerics, a relative said. Arab TV said the death toll was much higher.

Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim died in the bombing, his nephew told The Associated Press.

"I called family in Najaf and they confirmed he was dead," said the nephew, Murthada Saeed al-Hakim. Earlier, another relative had said the ayatollah had escaped.

story

[jamesinca]

8. Good morning all

Got a gas question today, as in gasoline. Cruz Bustamonte, keep an eye on him, has stated if he wins the job of governor of CA from the recall thing out here, he will try to regulate the gas companies. He thinks they are committing highway robbery of the CA motorist. Gas is averaging over $2.00 per gallon here. With the $1.75 coffee talk of two days ago about gas futures and this view of gasoline by him; What do you think will happen to the price of gas if he can make good on this?

CA is the second largest consumer of gasoline in the world, tied with Japan for 2nd, trailing only the U.S. If you will that is a huge chunk of the world market that may become regulated. I believe it will meet some fierce resistance from the WH and I believe it will drive up the price of the rest of the nations gasoline.

[ozymandius]

10. I agree on national price shock, James.

As we have learned here in Georgia, it is far easier to de-regulate than to regulate. Bustamente will have a class-A battle on his hands from the petrol companies and the White House. Something tickles the back of my memory here: isn't the cost of gasoline, nationally, regulated by the percentage of increase over a given period of time anyway?

Word to Bustamente: Nixon is said to have been made vulnerable to Watergate because he instituted wage and price controls. Therefore, his Republican power brokers abandoned him.

[jamesinca]

15. Ok, here is a big one for you

Alastair Campbell to resign


Campbell said it was a "great privilege" to serve Tony Blair
Alastair Campbell is to resign as the government's director of communications and strategy.
Mr Campbell's decision was announced by Downing Street shortly after 1430 BST on Friday.

He said: "It has been an enormous privilege to work so closely in opposition and in government for someone I believe history will judge as a great transforming prime minister."

The move comes amid the Hutton inquiry into the death of weapons expert Dr David Kelly.


No successor for Mr Campbell has been named. There is no departure date as yet.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
This just reported on the BBC. Do British politics as they relate to the war in Iraq effect the U.S. markets. Will this be a ripple or a wave here. I am going for the double shot of espresso today.

[ozymandius]

21. Sorry to have taken so long to respond.

I had some errands to run. Poste haste.

I do not believe that this will directly affect US markets for these reasons:

This is Friday before Labor Day. This is not the sort of thing to be weighed heavily among the junior traders who are stuck working a holiday weekend.

It is, simply, Friday. Psychologically speaking, the markets trend upward on Friday. If there is a dive, then this is probably due to something else - such as what the Green Man has to say.

To my inference, there is no solid, irrefutable evidence that supports the notion that Bush and Blair colluded on falsifying evidence. According to Blair's testimony, they merely collaborated on the strategy by which they would array the evidence at hand.

I would watch the British markets to see what kind of a ripple this creates. I have found that these things take awhile before they arrive on our shores.

[Capn Sunshine]

28. The rats are jumping ship. About time.

[Capn Sunshine]

35. The previous post was in response to the Blair post?

how did it end up here?

[ozymandius]

9. Remember: It's a JOB-LOSS recovery.

Goodyear to cut 500 jobs in North America

Goodyear Tire & Rubber on Thuesday said it would cut the number of its salaried employees in North America by 500, or 19 per cent, in the first sign that it is moving ahead with a turnaround plan for the region since talks with unions ended a week ago.

The world's largest tyremaker late last year drew up a plan to restore its loss-making North American unit to profitability. The unit, which accounts for about half of the company's revenues, has been suffering from over-capacity and stiff competition from imported tyre brands.

However the main elements of Goodyear's turnaround plan, which includes shutting up to four plants, had to be approved by the United Steelworkers of America as part of negotiations over a new labour contract. Those talks started in March and were only resolved when a "tentative agreement" was reached last week.

{link:story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=8&u=/ft/20030828/bs_ft/1059479406248|more]

[ozymandius]

11. Stocks Seen Flat; Greenspan, Reports Eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are set for a flat start on Friday as investors wait for a speech from Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) and snapshots of the nation's manufacturing sector ahead of a long holiday weekend.

Wall Street is hoping for hints on monetary policy and the health of the U.S. economy from the Fed chief when he speaks at 10 a.m. at the Kansas City Fed's annual event in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The speech's subject -- and the umbrella topic for the three-day conference -- is "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty."

Key readings on manufacturing activity will hit Wall Street early in the day with the monthly index from the National Association of Purchasing Managers (news - web sites)-New York due at 9 a.m. and the Chicago Purchasing Management index slated for release at 10 a.m. Both reports are likely to suggest at least slow expansion in manufacturing.

story

[Maeve]

13. Preopening blather

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. The futures market is near its best levels of the morning, but continues to indicate a lower open for the cash market. The generally in-line Personal Income (at 0.2% vs. consensus of 0.3%) and Personal Spending (at 0.8%, in-line with consensus) reports have not had much of an effect on the market as it switched its attention to the remaining economic reports of the day- namely, the revised reading for the Michigan Sentiment report at 9:45ET and the Chicago PMI data at 10ET.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[Maeve]

14. 9:43 and red ink flows

Dow 9,359.68 -14.53 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,796.29 -3.89 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,000.36 -2.48 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.426% -0.004

[Coventina]

16. The "I Ching" on today's market

TGIF!

Today's reading is GRACE changing to SYNERGY.

I'm pretty sure this reading is mostly aimed at myself, not the market. However, since SYNERGY seems to keep reappearing lately, I'll post a quote from it, "Learn to recognize the times, and act accordingly."

I'm taking Ching's advice-- :tinfoilhat:

I'm also keeping my parachute handy.

I hope everyone has a safe and happy LABOR day! (Don't forget what we're celebrating!)
See you back on Tuesday!
:hi:

[Maeve]

17. 10:22 with blather (back up)

10:00AM: The Chicago PMI report checked in at 58.9 versus the consensus of 56.0 and the previous reading of 55.9 and has catapulted the major averages into positive territory... This report speaks to the state of the manufacturing sector and is normally a market-mover and an indicator for the ISM report, which is to be reported next Tuesday... The revised University of Michigan Sentiment report, in the meantime, checked in at 89.3, below the consensus of 90.4 and the previous reading of 90.2
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,386.63 +12.42 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,803.51 +3.33 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,003.30 +0.46 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.461% +0.031

[mrsteve]

18. Hi everyone - 11:15 numbers on the board

Unwarranted good vibes still seems to be the order of the day. So when the adults get back in the oofice next week, it could get interesting, hmm?

Dow 9,394.00 +19.79 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,805.07 +4.89 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,004.27 +1.43 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.475% +0.045

Yahoo Finance sez things will be volatile and light:
"11:00AM: Although off their highs, the indices are maintaining their positioning above the watermark, with the Nasdaq outperforming its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis due to the resilience of the tech-sectors, such as computer hardware, software, and biotech... Given the fact that today's session precedes the long Labor Day weekend, it's likely that volume will be light and the market volatile... In any case, the market has been able to hold up quite well, especially considering the fact that the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all within roughly 1% of their 52-week highs..."

On edit: forgot to use EST instead of my own CST in the headline

[htuttle]

19. Speaking of the Adults, it looks like someone is buying gold today

It's up $5.40.

on edit:

3 minutes later, and it's up $6.40 now.

Make that, "Somebody is buying a LOT of gold today."

[Maeve]

20. Noontime follies

I'm agreeing with mrsteve--it's playtime on Wall Street til the grown-ups return.

Dow 9,370.42 -3.79 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,800.96 +0.78 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,001.66 -1.18 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.451% +0.021

[JNelson6563]

22. Big news day, eh Marketeers?

I've been kind of busy today, just quick glimpses and very little of that even. After reading thread and figuring early blather and week's performance, I'd say they were able to keep things quiet at least.

The gold thing makes a loud statement to me though.

Checkin' In, things little changed in half hour or so since Maeve's update--12:43:

Dow 9,375.19 +0.98 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,802.64 +2.46 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,002.56 -0.28 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.443% +0.013

Hope all are having a good day! :hi:

Julie

[ozymandius]

24. Lunch about done - market twiddles thumbs

DJIA 9,373.51 -0.70 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ 1,801.35 1.17 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,002.35 -0.49 (-0.05%)
10yr Note 4.42% -0.12

[mrsteve]

26. 1:30 - still twiddling thumbs

Dow 9,387.47 +13.26 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,804.07 +3.89 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,003.67 +0.83 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.454% +0.024

Do you think there will be another big 3:30 rally like yesterday? That would put up a nice peak (artificial, of course) for the long weekend and give * to crow about. Right now, though, it's dullsville.

Yahoo Finance is fairly bored too:

"1:00PM: Sellers are continuing to drive the action, sending the indices lower since the last update... With 500 mln and 680 mln share traded on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, respectively, today's volume is anemic at best, which is only natural ahead of the long Labor Day weekend..."

[mrsteve]

27. 2:24 - still boring (but above waterline)

Dow 9,393.79 +19.58 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,806.52 +6.34 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,004.85 +2.01 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.454% +0.024


And Yahoo info (how about that "concern that the unrest may delay the return of Iraq's oil exports" yeah..right..this is old news to all of us):

"2:00PM: Mostly sideways in the last half hour, which is not the worst-case scenario since all of the major averages are above the watermark... The vast majority of the sectors are little changed... However among today's most notable laggards is the oil services sector... Its weakness coincides with a slight $0.07 uptick in the price of crude oil to $31.57, a level near its 52-week high... The price of crude oil rose today after a car bomb explosion in the Iraqi city of Najaf, stirred some concern that the unrest may delay the return of Iraq's oil exports..."

[Maeve]

29. 3:13 and here it goes

The sum also rises...

Dow 9,408.31 +34.10 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,809.72 +9.54 (+0.53%)
S&P 500 1,006.93 +4.09 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.454% +0.024

[Capn Sunshine]

30. Fixing a jaundiced eye on things

Here at the fixed income desk we often wonder what sort of invisible props are keeping the equities side afloat, since the visible ones have been knocked aside one by one, yet the scenery remains upright.

Pricing seesm suspect if you look at foreign purchases;the foreign community had just purchased $100 billion of US fixed income assets in May - a record. One month corporate debt purchases rose to a two year high. And this was all happening while interest rates were approaching three to four decade lows. I suspect this pattern continues; it seems that no one domestically is buying the 10 year at these levels and most retail operations are net sellers. What do these foreign guys know that we don't? Nothing if you think about it. WE all see global dependence on the US consumer. The expectations built into equity models acknowlege this. A dependence that has led to extremes in financial decision making on the part of the foreign community.In early 2002, foreign buying of US fixed income assets appears logically investment driven. Monthly purchases by foreigners accelerated as yields increased and subsided as yields fell. But something changed in latter 2002 into early 2003. And that something is that foreign purchases of US fixed income assets were more becoming driven by the desire to influence currency exchange rate differentials than not. Foreign entities, especially the folks in Japan, were openly purchasing Treasury securities in hopes of trying to support the dollar versus their own currencies. Add to this the * regime monetizing the Invasion of Iraq and the oversupply exceeds what seesm was mainly foreign demand to protect their equity purchases via control/stablizing the US dollar.

What's this have to do with stocks? Simple:the price of credit is going up. Because what's different this time is that the Fed no longer has any magic bullets. In fact gunning for Greenspan and friends on the streets of Dodge will be the return of the bond vigilantes. Vigilantes who stopped using bullets long ago in deference to something much more deadly to the domestic and global economies and financial markets - basis points.

As these costs rise, the natural result is a slowing of business activity. The only questions left are whether this will be a soft landing. I don't think I've ever seen a simultaneous tightening of credit together with a flooding of the system with cheaper dollars which is almost obligatory Fed behavior in an election year, which is three moneths off.

Does anybody out there think this will not , when combined with relentless issuance of Govt paper to keep the war monetized, lead to abosolutely monstrous inflation? Is this the reason for the GOLD spike? What's a GDC3 400 call option priced at today? BTW Dec Gold is already above 375........

In the meantime, look out below, the institutionals are buying up all the puts they can. To regain the blood lost in the bond market, they plan to suck it from the unsuspecting bodies that will be piled up around the DIA, SPX and QQQ stations.All the poor traders who are long and not hedged.

Just in time for Halloween, vampires stalk the streets.
Keep your garlic handy kids.

[JNelson6563]

33. Great wrap-up Cap'n

Well done! Fabulous synopsis. I think we are in for a blood-letting. I even heard mention of all the puts from the talkingheads so I knew it had to be significant.

Have a great weekend all!

Julie

[Capn Sunshine]

34. Back atcha Julie

and ALL you traders, don't fry too many cells this weekend!

You're gonna need them Tuesday!

[Maeve]

31. Final answer for today and August

To almost no one's surprise...another up ending/

Dow 9,415.82 +41.61 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,810.58 +10.40 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,008.03 +5.19 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.454% +0.024

Have a great weekend and try to unplug and enjoy! :hi:

[mrsteve]

32. Closing numbers - as I guessed, there was a big jump

The last 90 minutes were big:

Dow 9,415.82 +41.61 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,810.58 +10.40 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,008.03 +5.19 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.454% +0.024

Yes, looks like this week will give * something to smile about over the holiday. Something is rotten in Denmark...

Yahoo Finance is non-commital, even with the jump:

"3:30PM: With half an hour remaining, buyers are in control, driving the indices to new session highs... Next week is a short one since the markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day... There are twenty earnings reports slated for the remaining four days, with the highlights including ACDO, ABS, and NSM..."