STOCK MARKET WATCH WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 3.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday September 3, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 508
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 290
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 265 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 323 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 165
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 649
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 2, 2003

DJIA 9,523.27 +107.45 (+1.14%)
Nasdaq 1,841.48 +31.03 (+1.71%)
S&P 500 1,021.99 +13.98 (+1.39%)
10-Year Bond 4.60% +0.15 (+3.30%)
Gold future 374.30 -2.10 (-0.56%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. NEW GUY - WrapUp by Ike Iossif

"Technical Signature" A Brief Discussion

One of the unique things about intermediate term moves, is that the markets tend to be consistent in the way they behave thru-out the duration of the move. By examining the patterns exhibited by technical indicators, we can identify the "technical signature" of a particular move. As long as the markets continue to act in a manner consistent with the "technical signature" of the current up-phase, we can conclude with reasonable certainty that the dynamics of the market remain intact, and thus, we can expect continuation. By the same token, if the markets begin to act in a manner that is inconsistent with the "technical signature," there is a reasonable possibility that the forces influencing the markets have changed, and thus, the current move has entered its terminal phase. There are plenty of technical indicators that can successfully reveal the signature of a market move.

My personal favorite is our own "Thrust Oscillators." The Thrust Oscillators are a weighted average of price velocity, breadth velocity and net volume velocity, with the highest weight factor assigned to volume. The two charts below show the indicator, as well as price, for NASDAQ and the SP from 4-10-03 until Friday's close.

<..cut..>
Knowing how the Thrust Oscillator is calculated, we can conclude with reasonable certainty that basically what has happened in all four phases is this: buyers have shown a tendency to back off, as soon as the markets have risen in excess of at least 7%, consequently the velocity of net volume drops, which results in turning the oscillator down. However, although the rate of buying decreases, we see no pick up in selling, consequently the markets are able to continue a bit higher on a lesser amount of buying. As the rate of buying decreases, at some point it just dries up and then the markets experience a sharper decline. However, the decline is not due to increased selling, it is due to decreased buying, which is the reason why price losses have been very modest. As soon as it becomes apparent that sellers are nowhere to be found and the market is not going lower, buyers jump back in and the cycle starts over again.

some very technical writing here

[JNelson6563]

2. Good morning Marketeers!

The futures are looking pretty bright thus far. I believe we have some numbers today, construction spending at 10 and beige book at 2 I think (?).

The new-guy wrap-up makes sense in that nobody's selling it's just that nobody's buying either. We are on a ledge, will we fall off it or make it to steady ground?

I see gold's down this morn and will be interested to see what happens in Treasuries after yesterday's big action.

Hope everyone's getting off to a good start! :hi:

Julie

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Julie!

Yesterday's performance makes me wonder if the veteran traders were taking an extra day off.

I am too fuzzy-headed to make any predictions on today's performance. This damned cold, however, is starting to lift. Thank you for the well-wishes yesterday.

My son needs to get to daycare so I'm checking out for awhile.

[dembones]

3. Most important Stat

We should put up the numbers from January 2001. Jobs, Market, etc and do a compare and contrast from when Clinton was in charge. Maybe a job clock would be a fun thing for a scripter to do.

[wetbandit2003]

5. Hello, Good morning

Im New to DU!
Im a poet and didnt know it!

[lfairban]

10. I read your post . . .

I'll give you a Toast! :toast:

[ozymandius]

6. 9:44 sees teeny tiny gains

DJIA 9,531.41 8.14 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 1,854.30 12.82 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,023.80 1.81 (0.18%)

[jiacinto]

7. When will this rally correct?

nt

[ozymandius]

11. The infinite question!

When(?) is what anyone in the market would like to know. The only reliable phrase that Ralph Nader uttered during the 200 election says that things will have to get much worse before they get any better. I think he applied that to government in general and however that relates to the stock markets.

There may be clues that the numbers are going to slip. Check the housing market. This teeming economic sector has been floating our economy for over a year. The re-fi's and home equity loans have been putting money in people's pockets. This cannot last though. When that source of income is gone - it is gone and so are the trappings that come with what looks and feels like "free money".

Also look at the number of foreclosures. Here in Atlanta, someone is offering a "fixer-upper" at $66k. The property was appraised at $115k. This tells me that the dirt underneath this house is worth less than it used to be. These sellers just want to unload it. More deals like this are highly visible as evidence that housing is definitely less expensive than it was two years ago.

Another clue is the auto sector. We are over-saturated with autos. There was a NYTimes article some days ago about how the number of cars has outpaced the number of drivers. Also - have you checked the classifieds lately? How many cars are being offered in the used car section? How many cars are offered at a price that is equal to "take over payments"?

When things get tough, the common consumer unloads "stuff". Combine this phenomenon with the sagging market for new "stuff" and we may be on the verge of that correction.

[UpInArms]

21. they haven't posted the auto sales numbers yet, but

they had this little blurb up at Yahoo Briefing http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Ford (F 11.85 -0.46) just reported a 15% decline in August sales, and said it would be cutting its Q3 (Sept) production schedule by 10K to 800,000 vehicles, thus reinforcing fears about deteriorating customer demand... NYSE Adv/Dec 2017/1128, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1805/1237

[Maeve]

8. Hello, marketeers!

I'm so far behind in some of the things I need to do, I'm starting to lap myself, so I'm taking some time off the internet. BTW, that whole "flight suit" nonsense is beginning to haunt the Bushies! "Mission Accomplished" my Aunt Fanny.....

I think the final phrase in the Market Round-up sums it up.."we don't expect any drastic or dramatic changes for the near term." Unless something drastic happens, we're in a semi-holding pattern. This will give the "we're in recovery" crowd a chance to breathe and relax, but I'm staying pessimistic until we make it thru October. There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip, as the saying goes.

[ozymandius]

9. Maeve!

Good to see you checking in today. We missed you yesterday especially with me having this horrible cold. This thread was barren of your brand of insight for much of the day. Kudos to Julie, Mrsteve and others who pitched in later in the day.

I believe you're right in may respects in that Bush's* flight suit thingy may give a whole new set of meanings to the term "flight" suit.

[ozymandius]

12. a bounce or a blip?

10:30

DJIA 9,533.37 10.10 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 1,854.91 13.43 (0.73%)
S&P 500 1,023.84 1.85 (0.18%)
edit:
10yr Note 4.60% 0.14

[wetbandit2003]

13. Profit taking.

From the latest trends of the financial markets, I predict that there
will be a little profit taking today..

Since the DOW closed up @ 107 yesterday, the temptation would seem irresistable.
:bounce:

[ozymandius]

15. 11:22 and easing upward

DJIA 9,559.97 36.70 (0.39%)
NASDAQ 1,858.70 17.22 (0.94%)
S&P 500 1,026.82 4.83 (0.47%)
10yr Note 4.60% 0.14

[Coventina]

14. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello all!

Glad to hear you're feeling better Ozy!

Today's reading is pretty interesting. Two hexagrams that have not come up much OBSTACLES changing to PENETRATING INFLUENCE. I'll summarize the changing lines to OBSTACLES, "Because you serve a larger cause, whether you realize it or not, you are obligated to meet Obstacles head on and overcome them. This is the proper approach for extraordinary causes...Although it seems that you may ignore the turmoil around you, you will not be able to do so. You will inexorably be drawn into the struggle. Look to the paths of the wise for guidance in this matter."
I find this VERY interesting. I think Ching is saying that we are all part of this economy, whether we like it or not, and we are tied to what happens in it. I guess Ching is saying we should be giving hard thought about how our individual choices will affect the greater whole. I also think that this ties in to the message of PENETRATING INFLUENCE which says, "You are faced with a situation that can be influenced only by gradual efforts in a consistent direction."

My prediction for today??? Well, I was way off yesterday----but I'm going to say the same....small gains or small losses....no big movements.....

[ozymandius]

17. We are all a part of this.

I think that we will be forced to make some sharp decisions, personally.

Check out the latest construction news:

July Construction Spending Up, but Barely

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. construction spending inched higher in July but fell short of market expectations, despite an increase in private residential construction outlays, a government report showed on Wednesday.

Construction spending was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $879.8 billion in July, the Commerce Department said, up 0.2 percent from $877.8 billion in June. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 0.5 percent increase. June's rise was revised higher to a 0.7 percent gain.

Private residential construction, the largest spending category, climbed 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted $449.6 billion rate in July, the largest increase since a 1.9 percent jump in January. It was the third consecutive monthly increase for that category.

story

This is the re-fi money doing all the heavy lifting: an unsustainable resource.

[Maeve]

16. 11:24 and rising tide

Altho water references take on a different meaning when you've had the kind of rains we've been seeing lately...just spent half an hour trying to get my phone fixed...cell phone battery died while I was on hold. Gave up. Phone rang! Probably some work going on in the area...

Anyway...choppy today
Dow 9,551.55 +28.28 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,856.89 +15.41 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,026.04 +4.05 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.599% -0.002

[JNelson6563]

18. 12:19 up-date

Dow 9,564.11 +40.84 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,857.86 +16.38 (+0.89%)
S&P 500 1,026.55 +4.56 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.582% -0.019


It's all so fabulous!! We're all going to be rich! ;-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

19. Soon, I'll be able to buy that boloney sandwich I've been eyeing.

12:36
DJIA 9,563.97 40.70 (0.43%)
NASDAQ 1,859.27 17.79 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,027.07 5.08 (0.50%)

[mrsteve]

20. Hello all - quick note of apology

Can only post this single time right now - seems the grand corporate metropolis I work at has laid off people AGAIN. At the risk of shedding some of my anonymity, the company I manage at is a major electonics manufactucturer based on the Chicago suburbs, that has laid off 50,000 from a workforce of 135,000 just 4 years ago.

I missed the bullet, but several of my co-workers are going home early today. And in this economy, they'll be staying home for a while.

Today will continue to be a day of mourning and damage control. Not much time to post or even lurk.

And the company stock is up 1.13% today. The bastards.

But on a sunnier note, the markets overall are happy-happy-joy-joy.

At 1:00:
Dow 9,571.90 +48.63 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,859.58 +18.10 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 1,027.01 +5.02 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.601% +0.000

Still at highs for the day on Dow, and nearly there on the Nasdaq. And the 10 yr is above water for the first time.

Will try to check in later tonight, following an after-work beer and bitch session.

[JNelson6563]

22. Yikes!

Sounds like an ugly situation but I'm glad to hear this swing of the ax missed you.

As I saw above with so much of the economy having been carried by the re-fi money (a source that has since dried up) coupled with news of such deep cuts as your company is experiencing, well I get the feeling that a somewhat sunny picture on the Street isn't a true snapshot of things. More like an artist's rendition. ;-)

Just checkin' in at 1:37:


Dow 9,575.62 +52.35 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 1,862.78 +21.30 (+1.16%)
S&P 500 1,027.84 +5.85 (+0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.595% -0.006


Julie

[ozymandius]

23. I'm truly sorry.

I wonder if someone is looking for boosting their bonus by shedding expenses?

I thought the electronics industry was doing okay.

[ozymandius]

24. Yoweee! Who is running the numbers up the flagpole?

2:25
DJIA 9,593.80 70.53 (0.74%)
NASDAQ 1,863.17 21.69 (1.18%)
S&P 500 1,029.18 7.19 (0.70%)

[Maeve]

25. Someone decided it was time to sell, tho

Not much, just a little bit...

Dow 9,570.15 +46.88 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,857.75 +16.27 (+0.88%)
S&P 500 1,026.20 +4.21 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.611% +0.010

[ozymandius]

26. 3:09 - doddering around the fifty mark a bit

DJIA 9,576.74 53.47 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 1,857.44 15.96 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,027.01 5.02 (0.49%)

[JNelson6563]

27. turning the last corner...

3:28 and it looks like things are settling down...


Dow 9,557.44 +34.17 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,849.25 +7.77 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,024.56 +2.57 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.599% -0.002


Julie

[Maeve]

28. and in the end...final numbers

So maybe there is less steam in the rally than imagined...

Dow 9,568.46 +45.19 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 1,852.90 +11.42 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 1,026.27 +4.28 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.599% -0.002