Kerry Takes Lead in Online Futures After Poll Reports

[Judi Lynn]

Kerry Takes Lead in Online Futures After Poll Reports (Update2)
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Traders reversed bets that George W. Bush would win the U.S. presidential election after Web sites posted what they said were exit polls showing John Kerry leading in battleground states including Florida and Ohio.

Contracts betting Bush would win plunged to 28.5 from 57 and Kerry futures jumped to 71 from 43, according to Intrade, an electronic exchange based in Dublin known by its Web site TradeSports.com. Winning contracts climb to 100, paying out $10 on Intrade. Losing contracts fall to zero and expire worthless.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost most of its advance, Treasuries erased losses and the dollar pared its gain against the euro after the reports appeared.

``These futures may not predict, but they sure do react,'' said Barry Ritholtz, market strategist for brokerage Maxim Group LLC in New York. ``I thought the Kerry futures were a relatively good bet after seeing those enormous lines. That's never good for an incumbent.''

(snip)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aLF17oOheaqQ&refer=home

[shockingelk]

1. landslide, baby!

Check out the winner-takes-all Iowa Election Market now:

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html

DEM04_G52
0.320
DEM04_L52
0.494
REP04_L52
0.155
REP04_G52
0.041

Translated, the market says Kerry has a 81% chance of getting better than 50% of the popular vote.