Dean Surges in South Carolina (2nd place)

[Sean Reynolds]

I'm in a rush off to class, so if this has been posted, I'm sorry.

Dean Surges in South Carolina

SNIP:

Zogby's South Carolina Polling Shows Four Candidates Tied for Lead; Nearly Half of Likely Voters Still Undecided; Sharpton's Candidacy a Dud.

SNIP:

NC Senator John Edwards, former VT Governor Dr. Howard Dean, MA Senator John Kerry, and CT Senator Joseph Lieberman are deadlocked for first place in the polling, yet none of them has reached double digits except for rounding. All four earned 8-10%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=731
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[Walt Starr]

1. If Dean wins Iowa, NH, AND SC, it's all over except for the crying

There's no other way to put it. If he takes the first three big contests, the other eight may as well hang it up, take hat in hand, and visit the man hoping for a cabinet post.

[RamboLiberal]

2. Walt you got that right

Or they can line up hoping for a VP spot.

[Walt Starr]

3. I'm thinking Clark already has that one sewed up

;)

[RamboLiberal]

6. Again Walt I think you're right on Clark

A lot of us figured that out and Dean is no dummy. I think it's Clark's if he wants it. And for Clark I think that would be a smart hand to play.

[polpilot]

7. Clark's in.

I believe.

Dean '04...

[morningglory]

10. Clark in 2012, vp in 2004!

How old is Clark?

[SharonAnn]

13. 58, born in 1945

eom

[goobergunch]

17. I concur.

If Dean wins all three states, he is unstoppable.

This poll is also a promising sign for Dean...he has increased the most from the previous polling.

[birdman]

25. Absolutely

The others will see their funds dry up and
have to drop out. If Dean wins the first 3
it's over.

[dean4america]

30. i agree

If he pulls off the trifecta, it is over. it *might& be over if he wins IA and NH, and is a CLOSE second in SC. also would depend on who won SC, too. But yes, a trifecta and its over.

[Frances]

4. I liked John Kerry's speech

in South Carolina, but I think Kerry will remind Southerners of John Kennedy and most white Southerners (not me) hate Kennedy because they think Kennedy betrayed white voters when Kennedy backed the entry of African-Americans into previously all-white schools. (I very much regret that fact.)

Dean doesn't look or sound like Kennedy so I think he has a better chance than Kerry with Southerners.

[maxomai_vs_rove]

8. Dean in the South

If nothing else, Dean's support for the rights of gun owners will make him more attractive to the Southern public.

Dean's also got a strategy specifically to talk to Southern voters about how Bush has screwed over their economy, particularly in the textiles industry.

[newyawker99]

14. Hi maxomai_vs_rove!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[David Zephyr]

16. Joining With the Great Newyawker99 to Welcome You to the DU!

:hi:

[SayitAintSo]

27. Message Moved...

message moved

[colorado_ufo]

33. Welcome maxomai_vs_rove!

Here, at DU, you will find hope!

[cjbuchanan]

9. I don't think many white Southerners think much of JFK these days

Anyone who is still blaming JFK for African-American rights probably will not vote for a Democrat no matter who gets the nomination.

By the way, I think people would be a little more upset at LBJ for integration then JFK.

Just my thoughts.

[morningglory]

11. As an anti-VietNam war Southerner

I am still grateful to LBJ for putting me through college. I came from a mill-worker family. Too poor to go to school. LBJ meant a lot to me with his work study program for poor students, and I was proud of him for pushing through the civil rights. It was a Great Society, except, of course for 57,000 of our boys dead in the jungle.

[PurityOfEssence]

5. The unmitigated stupidity of a top-loaded and compressed primary season

At least Edwards is doing well.

I'm trying to have an open mind, but there's something about Dean I just don't like on a personal level. I watch speeches and interviews and agree with most of what he says, but just don't like the way he says it.

Having said that, it's just so annoying that the primary season's so damned short. Time and regional differences are a good thing.

The Republicans have succeeded in spooking us into some kind of panic stampede to make up our minds now and hope against the forlorn reality that Junior's a god of public opinion and only Saint Nicholas (patron saint of beggars, whores and actors) will save us with some kind of Santy Claus fantasy present. Yuck.

[paulk]

20. indeed , the shortened primary season is bogus

especially if three reletively inconsequential states (electoral college wise) decide our nominee.

Dean's rise to national prominance is only that - he's put his face up there with the big boys. The next 3 - 4 months are when this thing will be decided - I think the "Dean's got it sewed up" school is a little premature.

I still haven't made up my mind who to support - and I expect,the partisanship here at DU aside, there are a lot more people like me out there.

[Walt Starr]

23. I sort of agree, a brokered conven tion would be awesome

The media would be all over it which would give the Democratic nominee a HUGE bounce in the polls. We would be much better off if the nomination was still anybody's ball game come convention time.

[PurityOfEssence]

26. I'd sort of dig that too

Although having this top-loaded crap resolve itself in February means we can concentrate everything against Junior with serious focus, a good old fashioned plank by plank building of a coalition is an invigorating spectacle. Maybe it'd confuse the focus and give Junior a tad of a breather, but I like policy over personality, and too much of the general elections these days devolve too quickly into personality.

[dean4america]

29. ?

clarification - i keep hearing that term (brokered convention) thrown around here and elsewhere. anyone care to post a 30 second explanation?

[PurityOfEssence]

32. I'll give it a whirl

I think it's technically only really that when a few ballots have passed and a serious deadlock is at hand, at which point some power deal is made. On rare occasions a favorite who's not of the deadlocked two may be chosen.

In common usage--as bandied about here--it means a convention that starts without anyone having the number of delegates necessary for a first ballot win. What it amounts to is a group of essentially ex-candidates trading or leveraging their delegates for certain concessions.

With this many running, it could well wind up with two or three who have a solid chunk of votes and three or more with enough committed delegates to band together to defeat a common "enemy" or to force planks into the platform. This kind of field--especially if the primary schedule was longer--could wind up with some serious blocs that have to be convinced or assimilated. It can be a real spectator sport.

If it's too even, it screws up the focus for the general election, but that might be good too: the nazis won't know where to focus their evil propaganda, while the Dems know who the common enemy is. It could also be bad, causing too much energy to be wasted before concentrating all energies on the evil one. Regardless how heartbreaking or acrimonious it may be, it'll be hugs and kisses afterward as they all move to actively destroy Junior. I'll bet all of the candidates vigorously work hard for the standard bearer, and that could be a joyous time for us.

Stay tuned...

[Corgigal]

12. Edwards been to SC

several times but I talked to someone who went to meet him yesterday. He left quickly , didn't answer any questions NOR did his staff. They felt dissed. SO they came to our meet up yesterday.
Dean is coming early October and I'm sure he got that information
about how Edwards treated some potential voters. Dean will be spending lots of time here in October.

[David Zephyr]

15. Sean, I'll Post This Here As Well.

Here's the headline from this poll:

In the last 150 days of polling, three candidates have showed growing momentum and others have notably lost ground.

THE SUNSHINE BOYS:

1. Sen. Edwards from nearby N. Carolina (born in S. Carolina) has enjoyed a 200% increase in support from 5% to 10% to now lead in that critical first Southern Primary. This should be very good news for Edwards. However...

2. Gov. Dean, again confounding his critics and distracters, has had a meteoric rise of 900% INCREASE in his S. Carolina support leaping from a mere 1% to 9% which is only 1% below that of Edwards. The "New England Liberal" charge has obviously presented no problem to the surging Dean campaign

3. Sen. Kerry, has also seen a more modest gravitation of support to his candidacy of 60% INCREASE. This is significant in that Kerry has not lost ground, but has continued to pick up support. It should also be noted that this poll does not take into account the aftermath of Kerry's bold Campaign Kickoff in South Carolina this week which should further help his cause.

THE COLLAPSING CAUSE OF THE MORE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES:

4. Joe Lieberman, who has made no bones about being the more conservative of the pack and who once enjoyed the highest numbers of the pack in S. Carolina has seen a continuous erosion of support during the last 150 days. Lieberman's loss in S. Carolina is a full 33% DECREASE. This is notable in that Lieberman's "firewall" strategy, as many of his supporters here at the DU have claimed, was to be in South Carolina. This cannot be encouraging news for his champions and his staff as they soak in the significance of this important Zogby Poll today.

5. Possibly as bad, if not worse, is the other more conservative Democrat, Congressman Dick Gephardt. Gephardt, who had enjoyed a strong second place in polling back in March of South Carolina voters now must confront a sobering 60% DECREASE in support for his candidacy. Like Lieberman, Gephardt's campaign had banked on a "firewall" after New Hampshire's Primary in the more conservative South Carolina.

This may be the beginning of the end for the Gephardt and Lieberman candidacies. Certainly, there must be a heavy fog hanging over their operations today as they come to grip with these numbers.

[Sean Reynolds]

18. Thanks for that.

I really thought Edwards would be polling in a lot better there. I mean it's just a state away.......

[paulk]

19. is edwards giving up his senate seat?

he's a fool if he does.

I always thought he got in this race to get his name out there for a later run at the presidency. At the very most maybe a VP slot - to balance the ticket with a southerner.

I never took him seriously because of his lack of experience.

[PurityOfEssence]

21. That's not the headline!!!

Somehow an article that shows that EDWARDS IS IN THE LEAD once again trumpets the tiresome orthodoxy of the phalanx of the frontrunner that there is no other story than Dean.

The headline reads that it's a four-way tie, which it is. But to some of us, the great story is that Edwards has 10% to Dean's 9% and Kerry's and Lieberman's 8%. There's very little good news of late for Edwards, and the media is on complete blackout mode.

There was another LBN thread with this title that was locked as a dupe. This thread is the dupe.

deandeandeandeandeandeandeandeandeandean. Come on.

[Sean Reynolds]

22. Ugh.

IT WAS the headline from the site I got it from. Yes I got it from Dean's web site but I was in too much of a hurry to really SEE the headline on the Zogby poll. So don't flip out on me, I used the original headline as posted on HIS SITE.

And it's TOO late for me to go back and edit it. So jesus, calm the hell down.

OH and it wasn't a dupe. I posted this around 10.30 AM MY time.

[TomNickell]

24. 10% doesn't quite count as a surge.

A wavelet, maybe.

[SayitAintSo]

28. Dean won't even open an office in SC like other candidates...

Is he sending a message to SC that they don't count, aren't worth the investment ? And yes - the title to the thread is sorely misleading - hardly a "surge". And if Dean doesn't make a commitment to opening an office here - his numbers will "surge" in the other direction.

A Carolina Girl ....

[Sean Reynolds]

31. Don't shoot the messenger.

This was the title of the article as I saw it at 10.30 AM today.

[VolcanoJen]

34. Kick!!

:dem: