(PINR)Lines in the Sand: Western State Building in the Muslim World

[nosmokes]

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
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26 January 2005
For a past analysis related to today's topic, please see:

"U.S. Retreats from Theory of Democratic Transformation in the Middle East"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=243

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Lines in the Sand: Western State Building in the Muslim World

Drafted By: Yevgeny Bendersky
http://www.pinr.com

Modern day maps of the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia reflect a pattern and a principle ingrained in the foreign policies of major European, and now American, powers -- the existence of numerous sovereign Muslim countries. While wars and invasions against Muslim states by outside powers have taken place in the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century, none of such major military and political moves in the last several decades sought to redraw boundaries or radically change the modern map of the Islamic world.
Today's Muslim states -- countries where Islam is a majority religion adhered to by the overwhelming percentage of the population -- emerged on the ruins of the last major Muslim power -- Ottoman Turkey, and as a result of the dissolution of British India. Following the end of WWI, and later on, in 1947, young nation-states emerged in place of the centuries-old established order and principles. For many decades, Western European powers, the United States and the Soviet Union all promoted the emergence of these states onto the world arena, and supported them based on their own political, military or economic interests. Assistance to these states as separate political units drove the diverse foreign policies of the major powers after both world wars, during theCold War, and in the current unipolar environment.

Muslim States: Past and Present

Taking a look at the modern map of the Islamic world reveals a rather strange picture. In North Africa, and the Middle East, actual boundaries of states hardly correspond to the historical, cultural and ethnic make-ups of these regions. The prevalence of straight lines on the map that cut the Saharan or Arabian Deserts into independent states is justthat -- lines in the sand. They divide tribes, clans, families and their corresponding histories and aspirations in an arbitrary manner.
In some cases, all that is required to cross from one North African or Arabian state to the next is to walk over a sand dune. In a region where natural boundaries such as mountains, rivers, valleys or seas are largely absent, the new "borders" came to represent independent Libya, Egypt, Algeria or Jordan. People living on the border areas of these states are hardly aware of the fact that they live across another country. Likewise, in South Asia, Pakistan and India are divided by hastily-designed borders that have been the source of conflict between these two states for the last five decades.
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Modern Challenges to the West

The Iranian revolution of 1979 delivered the first shock to the established principles of splitting the Muslim world into separate political entities. While the coming to power of a theocratic government was not by itself shocking -- most oil-producing states of the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula were monarchic theocracies supported by the Western world -- the message and policies of the new Iranian government were alarming. The new rulers of Tehran sought to export their religious revolution to other Muslim countries and to overthrow the regimes that were either leaning towards, or were supported by, the secular, non-religious United States, Soviet Union and Western Europe.
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The third challenge came in the face of al-Qaeda, a powerful worldwide militant organization that calls for the unity of the umma against the United States and the West; the overthrow of secular, military, political or monarchic regimes associated with the West; and the establishment of an Islamic khilafat, or caliphate. Al-Qaeda has been linked to various Muslim militant groups operating all around the world with similar goals.
Recently, it has been suspected of cooperating with the Iranian-backed Hizbollah militant organization, as well as other non-Arab groups and movements. This particular cooperation is significant because it marks the first known operational linkage across religious and ethnic lines -- al-Qaeda is an ultra-conservative movement adhering to the Sunni branch of Islam, while Hizbollah and Iran follow Shi'a Islamic teachings. This worldwide cooperation of this network marks a serious development that is already unsettling the entire Muslim world. While al-Qaeda has been temporarily crippled by the U.S.-led assault after the September 11 terrorist attacks, there is no indication that it is letting up its efforts in the Middle East, Southeast Asia or even Europe -- in fact, its popularity is growing amongst the world's Muslims.
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Conclusion

Given the historical progression that at one time saw powerful Islamic states play a major role in world developments, followed by their internal dissolution, later subjugation and colonization by outside powers, and the eventual emergence as many distinct entities with varying degrees of religious, political and military governance, today's Islamic world presents a fragmented picture within artificial political boundaries.If the world's current dependence on oil continues to grow -- as recent reports about China's oil consumption seem to indicate -- many Muslim states will assume greater clout in world affairs, making it harder to treat each of them separately as distinct "identities" vis-à-vis other states.
The latest developments in the "war on terrorism" point to unifying movements in the Islamic world, either with Iran's help or under the banner of al-Qaeda and its allies -- a more coordinated attack on Western principles and Western interests in the Muslim world that cut across the religious and ethnic divides. While U.S. efforts in Iraq have faltered since 2003, the January 30 Iraqi election following a relatively successful election in Afghanistan will prove to be one of the turning points in the development of the Islamic world, which will either accept and foster the Western model and emerge as a collection of distinct and friendly states, or will finally break under the pressure of Iran and al-Qaeda and begin to emerge as a unified religious, political and military entity, heralding a new chapter in world history.
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complete report at http://www.pinr.com

Report Drafted By:
Yevgeny Bendersky
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The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [e-mail]. All comments should be directed to [e-mail].

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[starroute]

1. Returning to historical norms?

In terms of the last several thousand years of history, the present situation of small nation-states and domination of the globe by the seafaring nations of the North Atlantic is highly anomalous.

In the past, the greatest centers of wealth and creativity were almost always China and India, with the Middle East as an area of less stability but more political and religious dynamism. The Indian Ocean and the Pacific Coast of Asia were the major arenas for commerce and the exchange of ideas.

For hundreds of years, Europeans attempted to penetrate the ancient centers of Asia and exploit their wealth -- first directly (and unsuccessfully) via the Crusades, but then over the more indirect routes made possible by reliable long-distance shipping (and with the invention of capitalism to manage the risks), a process which climaxed in the development of steam vessels and building of the Suez and Panama Canals.

At the end of World War II, the US inherited the role of dominant Western power in Asia that had formerly belonged to the British (and, before them, the Portuguese and Dutch.) In the attempt to keep it, we have been fighting one futile war in Asia after another -- Korea, Vietnam, Iraq. Those successive failures may be an indication that the era when one part of the world could control other parts solely through naval power are ending.

And if that is true -- and especially as the oil which is essential for the US to project long-range power runs out -- we might well see the re-establishment of great land-based empires, just as though the last five hundred years had never happened.