History's Hints for Democrats

[reprehensor]

History's Hints for Democrats

by Sam Smith

A STUDY OF the past brings forth some strong hints of how the Democrats might recover from their present difficulties.

For example, while the media has inundated the public with talk of blue and red states, such a dichotomy does not reveal which states won by the GOP are vulnerable to change. If you define a safe Republican state as one in which the candidate received over 55%, then the GOP states plummet to 21 in the last election. In all the other states, the Democrats were either safe - there are five of those - or one needs only change the mind of not more than 5.1% of the voters to win - voters who are already uncertain or fed up with the choices of the past and susceptible to the most hated thing in today's politics: a new approach.

Even more significantly, the number of safe GOP states is less than half as many as in Richard Nixon's comfort zone and about half as many as Reagan enjoyed. In other words, GOP support is broad but it isn't as deep as it has been in the not too distant past. Furthermore, the number of safe states shows a clear downward trend over three decades from the 46 under Nixon to 21 in the last election.

When placed on a map, these states still occupy far more geographical space than their population would suggest, but it is a distinctly different picture than the one people have been seeing of late. For example, eleven of the states up for grabs are not on either the Atlantic or Pacific coast and six of them border the shores of the Mississippi River.

Even more interesting, of the 21 safe GOP states, 11 have above average poverty, 12 have below average income and 8 have severe drought problems. If you didn't know they were sacred GOP turf, you might think they were excellent organizing ground for the Democrats.

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[Zuni]

1. The GOP are ripe for losses, big time

The democrats have to work hard, but the future is with us, not them

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. I'm hitting Social Security hard

I'm planning LTTE and talking with folks here in Arkansas, one of those red states that could go blue. Since there are a lot of retirees here, and many rely heavily on SS, there is great concern. And many of the Boomers living in this state have only SS to retire on. I think that many are suspicious of Wall Street and can be persuaded that Bush's investment plan is more like gambling, a vice that has been voted down in many Arkansas counties (especially in the northwest corner, which is the only republican stronghold).