http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/06/weekinreview/06conf.html?oref=loginFebruary 6, 2005
Going for Broke May Break Bush
By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE
RARELY has a domestic policy proposal so monumental come down the pike with so little obvious reason for being.
Opinion polls show no public clamor to change the Social Security system; citizens are not yet marching on the Capitol demanding that they be allowed to invest a portion of their payroll taxes in the stock market. Nor does the program face an imminent threat that demands immediate action: According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security trust fund won't run out until 2052, after which payroll tax receipts will still cover 81 percent of the benefits promised senior citizens. Even many Republicans seem cool to the idea.
Nevertheless, Mr. Bush embarked last week on a five-state Social Security tour, determined to get traction on the first major effort of his second term.
And if the past is any guide, he is unlikely to change direction. Time and again during his first term, President Bush ignored the informal rules that once delimited what was possible in political life, ushering in transformative changes to American political life whether or not the public demonstrated a strong appetite for them in advance. By comparison with ambitious presidents of the past, Mr. Bush has made a habit of creating his own momentum.
"Presidents tend to attempt big things at the peak of their powers, meaning recently being elected, re-elected or in mode of momentum," says Joel Johnson, a former senior adviser in the Clinton White House. "Bush has made a few big moves that were not necessarily destined to succeed, and has had success in grinding out victories on them."
The question is whether Mr. Bush has the power to persuade Congress again. Most transformative presidents of the past have acted with the wind at their backs. When he set out to birth the New Deal, Franklin Roosevelt enjoyed high approval ratings and Congressional majorities that were gigantic by today's standards. Lyndon Johnson capitalized on the shock of President Kennedy's assassination to pass the Great Society legislation. And the public was already deeply disillusioned with détente when Ronald Reagan set out to upend American policy toward the Soviet Union.<snip>
"Bush is not only defying the tides of history, but he's also defying the advice of his own side and doing what he thinks is right," says Lou Cannon, a journalist and author of several books about Reagan. "There's something perversely admirable about it."