Venezuela: Oil-Flush Chávez Begins to Strut His Stuff

[Say_What]

Great analysis of what's happening in the South and Hugo's chances of winning another term.

<clips>

...It's the oil, stupid
Despite Chávez's charisma and political shrewdness, the president owes much of his recent success to the good fortune of presiding over the fifth-largest oil exporter in the world. This is at a time when soaring prices, instability in the Middle East, and nationalizations in Russia have made major oil-consuming industrialized nations, above all the United States, ever more anxious to guarantee secure supplies of the precious fuel. Chávez, not surprisingly, has sought to maximize this advantage, repeatedly making it clear that he intends to use the threat of cutting off oil exports to the U.S. as a defensive weapon against any bellicose posturing by Washington. The Bush administration has long despised the Venezuelan president as a dangerous revolutionary and has vociferously condemned his close relationship with Fidel Castro of Cuba, his nationalist economic policies, and his opposition to Washington's attempts to construct its version of a Free Trade Area of the Americas.

Chávez vs. Bush
...Even more telling, Chávez deftly turned up the pressure on Washington by intensifying his efforts to seek new markets for Venezuelan oil through diversifying its exports, with the implicit suggestion being that his new commercial strategy could entail a curtailment of shipments to the United States. Currently, this flow accounts for anywhere from 11 to 15 percent of U.S. consumption, thus making Venezuela the fourth most important supplier of crude petroleum to the United States, behind only Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Mexico. On January 30, the Venezuelan president signed an accord with China's vice president Zeng Qinghong, facilitating the China National Petroleum Corporation to invest in the development of Venezuelan oil and gas reserves. The country also has begun to sell fuel and crude oil to China at discounted prices to offset the high shipping costs to east Asia and thus affirming the economic attractiveness of the deal to Beijing. Meanwhile, the Chávez government is in talks with the government of Panama regarding the possibility of shipping oil via the Panama Canal to the Pacific and thus to the ever-growing Asian market.

A Rising Regional Power
....Chávez's talent at realpolitik was evident most recently in his successful patching-up of the diplomatic fracas that erupted with the conservative pro-Washington government of Álvaro Uribe in neighboring Colombia. Rodrigo Granda, a leader of the leftist Colombian rebel FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) who was quietly living in Caracas, was captured by Venezuelan bounty hunters in broad daylight last December and was subsequently handed over to Colombian police on the other side of the border by the well paid renegades. Accusing the United States of provoking the crisis, Chávez withdrew his ambassador from Bogotá and halted bilateral trade between the two countries, which normally amounts to almost two billion dollars annually.*

Having sent an unmistakable signal to the Bush administration that further interference in South American regional relations, such as the clumsy intrusion of the U.S. ambassador to Colombia, William Wood, in strong support of Uribe against Chávez, will not be tolerated--Chávez agreed to meet with the Colombian president in order to discreetly end the standoff before any damaging economic repercussions could set in. While he aggressively confronted Bogotá--viewed throughout Latin America, along with El Salvador and Chile, as one of Washington's most faithful bootlickers--demonstrated that the Venezuelan leader is capable of responsibly managing what has to be considered his most important bilateral relationship. It also showed that ultimately Uribe was not prepared to sacrifice his all important bilateral ties with his neighbors just to be used as a stalking horse against Venezuela. Ultimately, Chávez may attempt to position himself as a bridge between Uribe, who remains relatively isolated in South America despite (or perhaps because of ) his close relationship with the Bush administration, and the center-left Mercosur governments, thus further broadening a South American coalition that Chávez envisages as part of his hemispheric legacy.

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1376

[bemildred]

1. This is rather interesting in light of the COHA analysis,

which it confirms and agrees with.

Edit: Just read elsewhere that Venezuela's oil income went up 41%
last year.

[Hand]

2. Strut it, bro!!!!!!!!!

Just stay out of small aircraft...
:toast: