http://www.southernillinoisan.com/articles/2005/02/18/opinions/columnists/broder/doc4215e93dbe4f6604274702.txtDAVID BRODER: REPUBLICANS TRYING TO GET SUPPORT FOR SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM
At this early stage of the game, Social Security reform, President Bush's No. 1 domestic goal, is hanging by a thread. House Republican leaders are reluctant to force members to vote on the issue unless there is a clear prospect of Senate approval. And the votes to break a filibuster and pass it in the Senate are just not there at this time.
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On the Senate side, Democratic Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada has claimed he is certain he can keep Republicans short of the 60 votes they would need to end debate and force a vote on a Social Security bill. The Senate includes 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and an independent who often joins the Democrats.
<snip>But actually casting a vote that would make a lawmaker a target for the AARP, organized labor and other groups that have come out against Bush's proposal would be foolhardy if the best that could be achieved were a symbolic victory for a bill sure to be rejected by the Senate.
On the other hand, Blunt said, if the political resistance could somehow be overcome, the rewards for Republicans might be substantial.<snip>
All that makes it worthwhile -- in the eyes of conservatives such as Blunt -- to try for Social Security reform. But for now, the situation is eerily reminiscent of what faced Bill and Hillary Clinton on their health care reform project in 1994. House Democrats were uncertain the Senate would act, and vice versa, so in the end, neither chamber ever held a floor vote on the measure.
That is what George Bush could face this time around.