Prepare for the Late, Late Oil Age

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http://allafrica.com/stories/200505190762.html

We would equally be wrong to imagine the free-market pricing mechanism will effortlessly match supply to demand and that technological innovation, driven by higher oil prices, will effect a smooth transition to the next generation of personal transport and air travel. Yet, to judge by the reactions of many to Heinberg's lectures, this is a popular response. Our generation's faith in classical economics and modern technology runs deep. We have been brought up to believe there is virtually no problem that these two in combination cannot solve.

To be sure, prices will play a role in moderating demand as supply diminishes. New technologies will emerge to replace some of our dependence on oil. But reliance on these twin "fixes" alone would be a seriously flawed strategy.

We may assume that higher oil prices will slow demand. Then what? Those of us with decent salaries may be able to absorb the additional costs of travel in our (or our employers') budgets and the more forward-looking among us will hunt down a more fuel-efficient car for our next purchase, thereby sending a message to the car makers to speed up their efforts in this department. But what of those for whom travel costs already represent too high a percentage of their weekly budget? What advice does classical economics have for them? This could become politically complex.

Meanwhile, our touching faith in the omnipotence of technology, coupled with our preference for not looking at awkward truths like the inevitable end of cheap oil, has meant that we as nations and corporations have failed to invest heavily enough and early enough in possible alternatives to petrol and diesel (and there are few), leaving a yawning gap today between the 800-million cars running on oil-based fuel and the state of readiness of bio-diesel, electricity stored in batteries, or hydrogen-based fuel cells. While these alternatives all have potential, none is in a position to replace oil at the time when we need it to.

[TrogL]

1. I already have

I've moved closer to work.

I've bought a small house and I'm insulating it to the latest standards.

I've bought a small, fuel-efficient car for my 2nd vehicle.

I've pulled the seats out of my van (unless I'm actually transporting lots of people) to save weight. It runs like a sports car.

I've got a brand-new fuel-efficient furnace.

Everybody in the house has a good bicycle.

I've replaced all my lightbulbs (except external) with 16W fluorescents.

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2. Now if only everybody did that

As Congressman Bartlett put it during his Peak oil speeches, it going to take a national effort, as individual efforts won't matter, because the energy you save will be used by someone else!!

I do take my hat off to your efforts though.