Iraq's rush to failure (IHT)

[Up2Late]

Iraq's rush to failure

J Alexander Thier

FRIDAY, JULY 15, 2005
STANFORD, California


Iraq is rapidly approaching a watershed moment: the unveiling of its new constitution. This event will probably be seen in retrospect as either the moment that the leaders of Iraq reconsecrated their troubled nation, or as the opening act of the country's descent into civil war.

It is troubling, then, that events are proceeding with undue haste and a lack of public input, either of which might doom the process and invite a conflagration that would make the insurgency look like a garden party.

Despite President George W. Bush's no-retreat-no-surrender rhetoric, the military and political truth about Iraq is growing clear: The American military will not defeat this insurgency. The rebels can be defeated only by political reconciliation among Iraqi leaders, and the constitutional process is the essential step.

The purpose of any constitution is to channel conflict and competition into politics. A constitutional process is supposed to translate the political will of a nation into a concrete agreement. But this seems unlikely to occur given the current timetable - the Iraqi government has until Aug. 15 to pass a new constitution and until Oct. 15 to hold a public referendum on it.

<http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/07/14/opinion/edthier.php>
(more at link above)

(Don't know who J Alexander Thier is? I didn't know either, so I Googled him: <http://cddrl.stanford.edu/people/jalexanderthier/> )

[bemildred]

1. Vague generalizations and babble.

The "New Constitution" will have exactly as much effect as the "election" did. Lot's of hot air will be vented and zero change in the military situation on the ground.