Poll Analysis: Can Davis Retain His Job? (LA Times, October 1)

[IndianaGreen]

October 1, 2003

THE TIMES POLL

Poll Analysis: Can Davis Retain His Job?

Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is the candidate to beat as he leapfrogs ahead of the only major Democratic candidate, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.

By Susan Pinkus & Jill Darling Richardson, of the Times Poll

The volatility of the recall campaign can spin you around so fast that poll results reported two weeks ago are very old news compared to poll results reported this week. The compressed election has events daily that change the tenor of the race, while television ads are airing constantly. Before the debates and before the court of appeals decided to hold up the election, then allow it to go on, the recall was within three points — 50%–47% in an early September L.A. Times poll; Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante was leading actor Arnold Schwarzenegger by 5 points (30%–25%) and state Senator Tom McClintock was right behind Schwarzenegger with 18%. The momentum seemed to be in Gov. Davis’ favor and it looked like the recall was headed toward failure. But this poll shows that the momentum has shifted toward recalling the governor.

Now a new L.A. Times poll shows there is a 14 point spread between voting yes and no on the recall. With less than a week left to the October 7th election, 56% of likely voters would vote yes on recalling Gov. Davis, while 42% would vote no, not to recall the governor. Just 2% said they were undecided.

The campaigns are now in the home stretch and the airwaves are flooded with Bustamante, McClintock and Schwarzenegger ads, plus Davis’ ads against the recall. However, Schwarzenegger has engaged more of the electorate to look at him as the one who can save the state. The actor has the advantage over the airwaves with his TV ads playing constantly. And the ads are working for him, in addition to his star power and running as an outsider — not beholden to special interests. In follow-up interviews with poll respondents, voters expressed anger and frustration at Davis and the way he has run the state. That is one of the reasons for Schwarzenegger’s advancement to frontrunner.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-poll1oct01-488pa1an,1,4658939.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[Manix]

1. Not looking good for the Dems

Time for a Hail Mary...bring Bill Clinton back for a few days.

[tlb]

2. Heard tongiht Clinton's schedule is " too busy "

He doesn't want to get muddied by yet another dem loss.

[IndianaGreen]

3. On Hardball last night, Terry McCauliff refused to commit to another...

On Hardball last night, Terry McCauliff refused to commit to another Clinton visit. He is throwing in the towel like he did during the Florida recount. What a schmuck!

[Jack Rabbit]

4. McAuliffe should step down

He really shouldn't have survived the 2002 elections, but this is too much. Apart from the fact that Democrats were caught unaware by the recall, McAuliffe failed to develop a coherent strategy to help Democrats keep the governor's seat in California. In the days following the qualification of the recall for the ballot, the Democrats were scrambling to figure out what they were going to do. Where was the leadership? The should have already know what they were going to do. Since then, the Democrats have delivered the message "No on recall/Yes on Bustamante", just never at the same time. It has left voters confuesed.

To make matters worse, not only are the Republicans likely to buy the governor's office, but they will put in place an untested, flippant fool to run the government of the world's fifth largest economy. Arnold Schwarzengger is one the most unqualified candidates for public office ever seen. The Democrats left the press to point that out (and, believe it or not, the print media has; several editorials from California newspapers have been printed on this forum bemoaning the choice of replacement candidates and singling Arnold out for particular scorn). The Democrats have done an inadequate job of hammering Arnold.

Even if Davis survives or Bustamante is elected, McAuliffe has flunked the test again. This should never have happened. The recall should have been stopped in its tacks or, failing that, the Democrats should have been ready with a single strong candidate as an alternative who also would have articulated the case against the recall.

[gristy]

5. I agree, and have been saying that McAuliffe should be

canned ever since the Wellstone Memorial debacle. The man has been repeatedly asleep at the switch and induced far too many train wrecks. I doubt he's a "republican" but I can't imagine anyone doing MORE damage.