U.S.-run Baghdad regime can't last

[bemildred]

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The Pentagon's strategic plan for Iraq calls for four major air bases from which U.S. mobile, rapid-reaction units and air power will permanently control Iraq and the entire oil-rich Mideast. Imperial Britain once followed the same strategy in Iraq.

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Everything depends on the Pentagon's ability to field reliable Iraqi security forces to defend the U.S.-guided regime. Otherwise, even a partial U.S. withdrawal will be impossible.

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We are watching the continuation of Saddam's much-derided Mother of All Battles. When Saddam saw the U.S. invasion was inevitable, his Baath Party distributed huge quantities of arms and munitions and created thousands of weapons caches around the country. Entire Republican Guard divisions and commando units were ordered to melt away before the U.S. advance and begin guerrilla war.

Today, the resistance may involve up to 200,000 active members, not the 20,000 claimed by the White House. U.S. forces in Iraq number around 135,000. Experience from the twentieth century's colonial wars suggests occupying power needs a 10:1 troop superiority to defeat insurgents. The U.S. can barely control the 15,000 Iraqi prisoners it now holds.

Toronto Sun

[Dhalgren]

1. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it broke up into its

constituent parts. When the USA collapses in the next couple of years, will it break up, as well? I hope so. Maybe we can separate all of the forward looking, progressive, 21st century people from the dumbed-down knuckle-draggers who think the 12th century is just fine. We need to start looking at how best to position ourselves to make to most out of the collapse that is coming. It will be ugly, but there is no way to avoid it - might as well make the most of it.

[bemildred]

2. Certain lines of division seem clear.

I am most skeptical that the matter will be handled as well as the collapse of the USSR though,I think a very violent civil war is possible.

[Demeter]

3. I See No Desire In America for a Breakup

regardless of the unregenerate Rebels. There has been too much "miscegination" for the country to divide in two or more geographical regions. What I see as more likely is the Culture War getting hotter, with the original Americans finally getting a clue, and the Fascist Upstarts foolishly going for their guns. Until the Corporate Multinationals try to shut it all down. Then things will really progress swiftly.

[bemildred]

4. Things change.

I would agree that it's a minority view now, but I can assure you that quite a few of us out on the "left coast" are tired with having regressive social and economic policies foisted off on us while we are plundered of funds for the neanderthal foreign policy being pursued. I would be surprised to find that such thoughts do not occur from time to time elsewhere, and this entire line of thought is premised on the assumption that the economic chickens come home to roost, an event whose timing remains somewhat uncertain.

[Demeter]

5. The Left Coast Could Not Survive On Its Lonesome

The global economy has seen to the enslavement of whole nations and regions. New England would have perished without the Midwest during the Civil War. We would have to undo a major portion of the economy--and really shake out the waste and fraud that is advertising, most forms of insurance, and most levels of "management". I'm not saying it wouldn't be worth doing, just that it would be more daunting than turning Czarist, feudal Russia into the Soviet Union. That was done with great brutality, and at great cost, and done poorly so that it lasted barely 50 years.

[bemildred]

6. Right. Thanks so much for your insight. nt

[wli]

7. the imbalance in force of arms is too great

Going up against the big guns is suicide, and the reich wing owns the military.

[bemildred]

8. Right, of course, we could never lose in Iraq. nt

[wli]

9. not sure, but we don't outnumber the reich wing 10:1

So there are probably better ways (e.g. infiltration) to go about it.

[bemildred]

10. On the other hand,

the reich wing has done a superb job of debilitating the Army, and of disaffecting the military to the point that it's loyalty and combat-readiness can both be questioned, especially should it come to a matter of shooting fellow Amurcans, and Amurcans are decidedly well armed.

[wli]

11. regardless, a 100 million man march is a good idea

Or at least something seriously massive.

[bemildred]

12. I prefer one hundred million man marches, littered about the country.

That would wake them up, and the logistics issues would be a bit more distributed.

[wli]

13. sounds good to me

I'd probably even qualify it as a single "100 million man march" by my standards.

[Jack Rabbit]

14. Thanks for posting

Under present circumstances, U.S. efforts to get Iraqis to fight and die to defend the U.S.-run Baghdad regime will be even less successful than was "Vietnamization" in the 1970s. In fact, Iraqi regime forces appear to be falling apart faster than they can be mobilized. Iraqization shows no sign of working. This means U.S. forces will have to remain indefinitely in Iraq to prop up the isolated, embattled pro-American regime -- just what's happening in that other failed war in Afghanistan.

[bemildred]

15. I've always been a fan of fantasy stories.

:hi: