The news from Iraq is not good.
Despite President George W. Bush's assertion that the provisional agreement on Iraq's constitution is "another step" forward, despite Shia and Kurdish Iraqi negotiators declaring victory except for a "few" points and a need for three more days, the reality is that it's proving very difficult, if not downright impossible, to square the circle in Iraq.
Even with an additional week of work, the Shias and Kurds have been unable to entice Sunnis to accept the highly decentralized, confederated system they negotiated. Yesterday, officials said the document might be adopted by the National Assembly without Sunni support and submitted for an Oct. 15 referendum. But if three of the five Sunni-majority provinces vote against the constitution it will not take effect. The Sunnis object to a federated system in which they will be a weak power (they make up 20 percent of the country's population) and they worry that an Islamic Shia entity in the south will be dominated by neighboring Iran.
Some commentators are already criticizing the Bush administration for allowing such a governing system to result, especially for permitting Islamic law in the Shia south. But this is what the Iraqi factions have negotiated and any other outcome, especially one dictated by the United States, would have lacked internal support. Washington is also blamed for pressing for too early a deadline. That may be legitimate.
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