Until recently, opinion on the future of world oil supplies was dominated by two views. One group of experts held that production would decline fairly soon, within a couple of decades at most. Another group argued that the crude would keep flowing for generations, thanks to ever-advancing detection and drilling technologies.
Either way, the scenario was for a gradual and orderly transition to fuels of the future. Now a third perspective is gaining both popular attention and professional respect -- the notion that oil's decline will be sharp and uncontrolled, following a peak that may be more or less at hand.
This "peak oil" theory is neither new -- some geologists think the world has already passed the high point of recoverable reserves -- nor universally accepted. But it is gaining ground as world demand surges, especially in China and India, and as the most important supplier shows signs of strain.
Pretty much everything about Saudi Arabia's oil reserves and production rates is a state secret. This leaves its customers to rely on promises and assurances that can't be checked, from officials whose self-interest can't be ignored.
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http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0827-26.htm