WASHINGTON (AFP) - Iraq's new draft constitution falls dangerously short of initial US goals and will likely fuel an increase in violence in the war-battered country, American analysts said.
"It's not a good path we are on right now," said Flynt Leverett, of the Brookings Institution think tank here. "You have a situation now in which one or two things will happen, and both of them are bad."
He said either the minority Sunni Arabs will succeed in mustering a two-thirds majority in three of the country's 18 provinces to sink the charter or will fail and end up feeling disenfranchised and disgruntled.
Either scenario will produce a political crisis, Leverett said. "What we have now is a situation which is the beginning of a countdown to something that will look like civil war in Iraq."
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