stratfor: New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

[question everything]

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman

(snip)

The ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans, which run north and south of the city, are as important today as at any point during the history of the republic. On its own merit, the Port of South Louisiana is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and the fifth-largest in the world. It exports more than 52 million tons a year, of which more than half are agricultural products -- corn, soybeans and so on. A larger proportion of U.S. agriculture flows out of the port. Almost as much cargo, nearly 57 million tons, comes in through the port -- including not only crude oil, but chemicals and fertilizers, coal, concrete and so on.

(snip)

The problem is that there are no good shipping alternatives. River transport is cheap, and most of the commodities we are discussing have low value-to-weight ratios. The U.S. transport system was built on the assumption that these commodities would travel to and from New Orleans by barge, where they would be loaded on ships or offloaded. Apart from port capacity elsewhere in the United States, there aren't enough trucks or rail cars to handle the long-distance hauling of these enormous quantities -- assuming for the moment that the economics could be managed, which they can't be.

The focus in the media has been on the oil industry in Louisiana and Mississippi. This is not a trivial question, but in a certain sense, it is dwarfed by the shipping issue. First, Louisiana is the source of about 15 percent of U.S.-produced petroleum, much of it from the Gulf. The local refineries are critical to American infrastructure. Were all of these facilities to be lost, the effect on the price of oil worldwide would be extraordinarily painful. If the river itself became unnavigable or if the ports are no longer functioning, however, the impact to the wider economy would be significantly more severe. In a sense, there is more flexibility in oil than in the physical transport of these other commodities.

(snip)

The oil fields, pipelines and ports required a skilled workforce in order to operate. That workforce requires homes. They require stores to buy food and other supplies. Hospitals and doctors. Schools for their children. In other words, in order to operate the facilities critical to the United States, you need a workforce to do it -- and that workforce is gone. Unlike in other disasters, that workforce cannot return to the region because they have no place to live. New Orleans is gone, and the metropolitan area surrounding New Orleans is either gone or so badly damaged that it will not be inhabitable for a long time.

(snip)

A city is a complex and ongoing process - one that requires physical infrastructure to support the people who live in it and people to operate that physical infrastructure. We don't simply mean power plants or sewage treatment facilities, although they are critical. Someone has to be able to sell a bottle of milk or a new shirt. Someone has to be able to repair a car or do surgery. And the people who do those things, along with the infrastructure that supports them, are gone -- and they are not coming back anytime soon.

(snip)

The displacement of population is the crisis that New Orleans faces. It is also a national crisis, because the largest port in the United States cannot function without a city around it. The physical and business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities, and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city's population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United States.

(snip)

Katrina has taken out the port -- not by destroying the facilities, but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable. That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the utility of its river transport system -- the foundation of the entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.

(snip)

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.

(snip)

http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive/050903-geopolitics_katrina.php

[neverforget]

1. I didn't even think about the commerce that goes up and down the

Mississippi on barges to or from the NO port. This disaster is HUGE for our economy. Once again, I think the powers that be are underestimating the consequences of this disaster.

Kick and recommended!

[question everything]

4. I have been thinking about needed funds

Yes, many of us have and will contribute to help the people. But rebuilding the infrastructure will need federal money. And, as the CNN anchorwoman asked the other day: "from where will the money come?"

For years many said that no one has ever heard of cutting taxes in time of war. And this disaster could throw the country into recession. But, hey, a congressman from Alaska got $250 million to build a bridge to nowhere.

This is what we need to write our representatives. To roll back the tax cut for the wealthiest, and to limit the amount that CEO compensation can be deducted as business expenses on the books of corporation.

[klyon]

15. and get the corporations out of our politics

fair competitive bid contracts for government work
conflict of interest laws that keep things on the up and up
control of lobbyists

KL

[blitzen]

2. Baton Rouge is 10th largest port in US....can it pick up

the slack?

[liberal43110]

9. I don't think so

The huge megaships can't even make it all the way to the New Orleans port (they stay farther out and ferry cargo into the port). Because the river isn't deep enough to handle them. There's no way most large ships could get much use from the Baton Rouge port.

[Boo Boo]

3. To think we couldn't scrape together the money to protect

the most important ports in the United States. People talk about requests for 70 million dollars being denied; why so little? Why not a billion dollars? Why not ten? We're building a bridge in CA across SF Bay that's going to cost 3.5 to 5 billion dollars. Isn't it worth a few billion to save NO and protect those ports?

I'm flabbergasted. Blown away.

Kicked and Recommended.

[AuntiBush]

7. Billions & Billions if not Trillions are all over in Dust Ruined Iraq

Blown away. Good choice of words, as I'm running out of ways to express my total frustrations.

[neverforget]

5. KICK! This needs to be read by all! The economic consequences

are going to be HUGE!

[autorank]

6. Good for you. Great stuff. Shows just how fucking stupid they all

are, especially Hastert! Fuck them all.

[kster]

8. If * resigns

tuesday NO will have enough money to rebuild on Wednesday,because right now the people in America and the World are not sure where their donations are going if they give.

And thats F*cked up!

[Nothing Without Hope]

10. Important & recommended. I also suggest this long piece by a New

Orleans resident who explains to all the freepers and neocons like Hastert that moving New Orleans is something only reall idiots would suggest:

http://www.xoverboard.com/blogarchive/week_2005_08_28.html#001439

[DELUSIONAL]

11. This is very important information

Now it will cost a tremendous amount of money to restore New Orleans -- or make it inhabitable again. This article makes a strong argument that the city is needed to sustain the port and the shipping that is vital to the U.S.

For the cheapness of the politicians who wanted to wage a war of greed the levees were allowed to fail through neglect. Now we will be paying for both a failed war and a failed president.

Also what I see is the short sightedness of the bushies -- the bottom line short term gain against the long view -- keeping the infrastructure strong and in good repair.

The stupidity of this guy in the white house has cause the death and suffering of a whole lot of people -- in Iraq and then here at home in New Orleans.

Why aren't the elected democrats screaming their heads off??

Senator Landrieu tried to do what was best for New Orleans -- and the GOP wouldn't listen to her -- seems like the GOP has push partisan politics to the point of a major disaster.

Their errors in judgment have killed a lot of people and thoes that do survive will have a very hard time adjusting. Their errors in judgment is going to cost us all a whole lot more in the long term.

It looks like people are getting pissed enough at the GOP to throw them out -- and then it will be up to someone else to clean up the mess. But there are enough Democrats that should be tossed out with the GOPigs -- we need to clean out the house and the Senate in the upcoming elections.

The violence has been done by the GOPig.

BUT will our votes be counted? We voted the bastard OUT last year. Damn -- but I doubt that four years of evil could have been undone. The levees would probably have failed -- and many people would have stayed.

After reading this article it would seem that we are headed into the next great depression. This horrific event was a tipping point -- in more ways then we can know at this point in time. WE can make some educated guesses . . . but it depends a lot on the democrats finding their spines long enough to stand up to the GOP. Will that happen? Depends on how many of the Dems are themselves dirty.

[BQueen]

12. Maybe "habitable" isn't their goal for NOLA

I mean, wouldn't it be better for them and their cronies if the port was completely industrialized, the channels deepened, etc.?

Haven't read this article closely enough to do any major reflection, but it seems patently obvious that NOLA has to remain a major port for econ reasons, and that is something that cannot have escaped them (even this crowd).

It sure would be *handy* to kill off a good part of the population via malignant neglect in a crisis so that you'd have that many fewer people to argue with about it. And the greater the devastation and destruction, the longer you can keep them out -- meaning they may just start a life somewhere else in the meantime...

then Hastert makes his silly statement, which gets everyone up in arms about the continued EXISTENCE of NOLA, as opposed to exactly how the city will be reconstituted.

dunno -- how's it look? :tinfoilhat:

[DELUSIONAL]

13. My husband is not a conspiracy supporter

However he is a retired volunteer fire chief and has observed the military for most of his career. He also has a science degree.

As I've kept him updated on the failure of the Feds to help people get out and the bushie's failure to fund the levee upgrades and repair -- he is beginning to wonder if the bushie gang has another use for New Orleans. He is starting to speculate -- and the actions of Homeland Security and/or FEMA sounds really odd and not at all correct.

So many basic principals in a major crisis have been ignored -- it is as if this is being run by someone without any knowledge of what they are doing. Or it is being run this way ON PURPOSE? He also said that it almost sounds like this whole operation is being underfunded. Help being sent away because Homeland insecurity or FEMA might be expected to pick up some of the costs???

Really anything is possible and I don't put anything past this criminal gang that has taken over all branches of the government.

There are a lot of questions and I believe it will be our jobs to ask the questions and demand answers.

What we are doing is brainstorming -- we are seeing things that aren't the way they're "supposed to be" -- people being treated like no human should be treated. WHY for what purpose?

Merely colossal incompetence or incompetence by design?

[teryang]

14. Global warming: geopolitical blunder

Good conventional commerce analysis which in typical stratfor style doesn't go far enough. Agree that the economic consequences will be far reaching, beyond what most can even contemplate at present.

In keeping with stratfor's conservative audience, the city of NO is in the wrong place but has to be there. No commentary on the failure to update the levee system. That discussion leads down the anti defense contractor rabbit trail.