not just because of this one column. He never fails to astonish me. But to humor you --
In the current issue of The Weekly Standard, Fred Barnes argues that we have seen the birth of a Republican majority. In 1992, Barnes points out, Republicans held 176 House seats. Today, they hold 229. In 1992, the G.O.P. controlled 8 state legislatures; now it controls 21. In 1992, there were 18 Republican governors; now there are 27.
But the really eye-popping change is in party identification. In Franklin Roosevelt's administration, 49 percent of voters said they were Democrats. But that number has been dropping ever since, and now roughly 32 percent of voters say they are. As Mark Penn, a former Clinton pollster, has observed, "In terms of the percentage of voters who identify themselves as Democrats, the Democratic Party is currently in its weakest position since the dawn of the New Deal."
What are we
not seeing? For one thing, we are not seeing how many voters call themselves "Republican" these days as compared to FDR's time. I don't know, but I am willing to bet money that the GOP has lost, percentage-wise, also. In Roosevelt's time, nearly all voters claimed a party affiliation. These days, at least a third, if not more, do not. So the second paragraph is a carefully crafted lie -- it IMPLIES that ONLY Democrats have lost ground.
The first paragraphs deals with a ten-year survey of elections that swung in the direction of Republicans. In the grand scheme of things, ten years doesn't say much. The Republicans have gone through similar periods of being lost in the wilderness, yet they keep coming back.
The rest of Brooks's editorial is a view of the Democratic presidential campaigns from a conservatives' point of view. It is true there is a struggle going on for the soul of Democrats, but this is not a sign of "decline." Rather, it represents varying degrees of recognition of how the VRWC is poisoning America. The Dem candidates range from the terminally cluelss (e.g., Lieberman) to some guys that have a couple of clues but don't see the whole picture (e.g., Edwards, Kerry) to those who see it pretty clearly (e.g., Dean, Clark).
We're not talking about just a struggle within one party. The 2004 election will be less about Dems vs. the GOP than it will be a referendum on America itself. If you don't see that, buddy, I can't help you much.
Let's skip to the very end:
When I interviewed people during the 2000 campaign I found many voters preferred Democratic policies to Republican ones. But they didn't trust Al Gore because they thought he looked down on them. They felt Bush could come to their barbershop and fit right in.
Except for Bill Clinton, Democrats have nominated presidential candidates who try to figure out Middle American values by reading the polls, instead of feeling them in their gut. If they do it again, the long, slow slide will continue.
Does George W. Bush represent "middle American values"? (If he does, I'm the Virgin Mary.) Or did he fool a lot of under-informed voters that he was a nicer guy than Gore?
As the great Republican president Abraham Lincoln may have said, you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. As the idiot Bush couldn't get out of his mouth, "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
The task ahead of us is, then twofold: The Dems must nominate a candidate who is not only electable but who shows signs that he understands the danger America faces at the hands of the Bushes and the VRWC. Appeasers like Lieberman will not do it. We need a fighter.
Second, we have to break through the right-wing media to get the truth to the people.
If we can do that, it'll soon be the Republicans who will be in decline.