The End of Plenty: Getting Resourceful About Resources

[Thom Little]

One question naturally arises when you hear that 67 million more people are on the way: Do we have enough to go around? Last year raised worries about "peak oil," the notion that the glass of crude may be half empty, bringing with it higher prices, increased jousting with countries like China, maybe even threats to the supremacy of the sprawled-out American suburb. Now get ready for peak water, and even peak food.

America is, on average, a damp nation -- the lower 48 states see 4,200 billion gallons of rainfall every day. But averages deceive; water is in short supply in the Southwest, where growth is fastest and rivers are already over-tapped. Even back East, we use so much water that supplies can run short. The Ipswich River near Boston now "runs dry about every other year or so," according to Sandra Postel, director of the Global Water Policy Project. "Why? Heavy pumping of groundwater for irrigation of big green lawns." In drought years like 1999 or 2003, Maryland, Virginia and the District have begun to fight over the Potomac -- on hot summer days combining to suck up 85 percent of the river's flow.

Just as gasoline shortfalls have led to new interest in hybrid cars, aggressive conservation measures could alleviate some of the water deficit -- Boston already uses 31 percent less water now than it did in the 1980s. And in the West, where irrigation uses up 80 percent of water supplies, reducing subsidies that keep water prices artificially low would help. But Postel cautions that "water savings on farms will simply go to fill urban swimming pools" unless governments establish strict allocation policies designed to make sure that streams and wetlands get the water they need.

Talk of irrigation raises the question of food. To judge by simply looking at American waistlines, we have more than enough -- and the fertile midsection of the country means we're in better shape than the rest of the world to keep growing our dinner. But overall food production around the world has begun to sputter; after fast growth in the decades following World War II, says Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute, the last 10 years have seen a steady erosion in the amount of grain grown per capita. And since wheat and rice and corn are all world markets, the need for imports elsewhere could drive up the cost of food here at home. The Chinese, in particular, are constantly converting farmland to factory sites (even as they learn to eat more meat), and they have plenty of American cash stored up to pay for any shortfall. But if they do so, the first casualties will be the world's really poor nations, already reeling from increases in the price of fuel.




http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/31/AR2005123100307.html

[bemildred]

1. Well, it is nice that WaPo finally noticed the problem.

Now if they would help us get rid of Bush and the rest of the "free market" fundamentalists, then perhaps we can start to consider not making things worse anymore.