Krugman: A Big Quarter (Perspective on 3rd quarter numbers)

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/31/opinion/31KRUG.html

The Commerce Department announces very good growth during the previous quarter. Many observers declare the economy's troubles over. And the administration's supporters claim that the economy's turnaround validates its policies.

That's what happened 18 months ago, when a preliminary estimate put first-quarter 2002 growth at 5.8 percent. That was later revised down to 5.0. More important, growth in the next quarter slumped to 1.3 percent, and we now know that the economy wasn't really on the mend: after that brief spurt, the nation proceeded to lose another 600,000 jobs.

The same story unfolded in the third quarter of 2002, when growth rose to 4 percent, and the economy actually gained 200,000 jobs. But growth slipped back down to 1.4 percent, and job losses resumed.

My purpose is not to denigrate the impressive estimated 7.2 percent growth rate for the third quarter of 2003. It is, rather, to stress the obvious: we've had our hopes dashed in the past, and it remains to be seen whether this is just another one-hit wonder.

[La_Serpiente]

1. Luskin

is going to go nuts.

[WENSTJDON]

2. Tucker Carlson is gonna go nuts too!

n/t

[Vitruvius]

3. Krugman has a great kicker (ending) that says it all:

Stimulating the economy in the short run is supposed to be easy, as long as you don't worry about how much debt you run up in the process. <SNIP> To put it more bluntly: it would be quite a trick to run the biggest budget deficit in the history of the planet, and still end a presidential term with fewer jobs than when you started. And despite yesterday's good news, that's a trick President Bush still seems likely to pull off.

[realFedUp]

4. trick or treat....

[Lindacooks]

5. I love this too, from the article:

"(By the way, for the last month there's been a peculiar pattern: each week, headlines declare that new claims fell from the previous week; a week later, the past week's number is revised upward, and the apparent decline disappears.)"

Gee, ya think wingnuts are lying???

[Nancy Waterman]

6. Already the numbers are out

Consumer spending is down for the quarter! So the whole 7.2% is from refinancing and those piddling tax cuts - both one time hits.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/987426.asp?0cm=c20&cp1=1http://www.msnbc.com/news/987426.asp?0cm=c20&cp1=1http://www.msnbc.com/news/987426.asp?0cm=c20&cp1=1