America's Bleak Jobs Future (Paul Craig Roberts)

[Starfury]

Probably old hat these days, but PCR once again covers the job situation in America that you hear almost nowhere else. This is a good but very depressing read.

On February 20 Forbes.com told its readers with a straight face that "the American job-generation machine rolls on. The economy will create 19 million new payroll jobs in the decade to 2014." Forbes took its information from the 10-year jobs projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor, released last December.

If the job growth of the past half-decade is a guide, the forecast of 19 million new jobs is optimistic, to say the least. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll jobs data, from January 2001 - January 2006 the US economy created 1,054,000 net new private sector jobs and 1,039,000 net new government jobs for a total five-year figure of 2,093,000. How does the US Department of Labor get from 2 million jobs in five years to 19 million in ten years?

I cannot answer that question.

(...)

The United States is the first country in history to destroy the prospects and living standards of its labor force. It is amazing to watch freedom-loving libertarians and free-market economists serve as full time apologists for the dismantling of the ladders of upward mobility that made the America of old an opportunity society.

America has begun a polarization into rich and poor. The resulting political instability and social strife will be terrible.

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts03062006.html

Without pressing the national reset button and starting fresh, I don't see how this'll be prevented (or even significantly slowed down). :scared:

[NewJeffCT]

1. 19 million jobs in 10 years sucks

With the rising population, we need to create at least 1.8 million jobs per year just to stay ahead of the number of people entering the workforce. If you talk to an economist, it might be closer to 2.0 or 2.1 million we need to create.

So, essentially they are saying we will have 0 job growth over the next decade, if with the rosier figures that Mr. Roberts does not believe.

Hurray!

23 million jobs in 8 years is another story, however.

[liberal N proud]

2. The bu$h regime is not finished destroying America

How bad will it get?

[Starfury]

3. This has been a long time coming

I'm afraid we're still in the early stages. BushCo greatly accelerated our problems, but they were coming anyway, regardless of who was in the White House. Our society is like a runaway train that's been gathering momentum for a long time. Without a huge countervailing force, we're not going to stop it. From PCR's article:

For the past five years US job growth was limited to these four areas: education and health services, state and local government, leisure and hospitality, financial services. There was no US job growth outside these four areas of domestic nontradable services.

We're experiencing a huge societal transformation - corporate globalization is bigger than any one administration or party. I'm currently reading "When Corporations Rule the World" by David Korten - I highly recommend it to everyone. But fair warning: it'll scare the bejeezus out of you!

[raccoon]

10. You're right, the problem of the lack of good jobs, and the loss

of the ones we still have, is something that was coming anyway, regardless of which party was in power, regardless who's in the WH.

It's a great mistake to think that if Gore and/or Kerry had won this trend would be reversed, or stopped.

One question I've got about the article. If job growth occurred in state and local government, how did that happen, with Bush's budget cuts and it would seem, with the loss of good jobs, most governments are taking in less tax money than they used to.

One thing I'd bet: If indeed there has been job growth in state and local government, it is HOURLY workers with low pay and no benefits. Maybe even people in India or elsewhere providing information to Americans, such as about Medicaid or whatever.

[fasttense]

4. My son and daughter are working hard to get through college

My husband took me aside and said, "Do you realize that a college degree will be of little value in the new American workplace."

He is right. I always thought a degree was a guarantee of better earnings. It is no longer of value because the growing jobs in the US are nursing, food preparation and domestic cleaning. You don't even need a HS diploma for most of those jobs.

[bigscott]

5. what kind of nurse do you have

that does not require a high school diploma?? Granted not all nurses have a college degree but I hope to christ your nurse went to nursing school!! And while a college degree might not be worth what it once was, I am not taking chances - my kid is going to college - don't care what he wants to be, but he is going. I am fortunate enough to be able to pay most of his way and he won't be saddled with debt when he graduates, but how much easier do your think your kid would have it if he/she did not have a college degree??

[fasttense]

13. There are a good amount of two year nursing degrees.

I have several friend who have two year degrees. My goal is not to knock nurses. Some of my best friends are nurses (just kidding). Anyway you look at it my kids are going to finish college and get their four year degrees. But getting a degree no longer guarantees an increase in income as compared to a high school diploma or two year degree. Not when the opportunities for engineers and computer technicians are moving to foreign countries.

[SharonAnn]

18. All kinds of Health Care "Aides" are being used. Little if any

education required for some of those jobs. But, of course, they're "hands on" and "dead end" jobs.

[raccoon]

11. I think there will be demand for a lot of the trades, such as

plumbing, auto mechanics, etc. Seems to me a great many Americans don't think these jobs are as prestigious as going to college, but if you can make a good living at it, and have the aptitude, I say go for it.

[shrike]

12. And they pay well

My step-son-in-law is a plumber. My stepdaughter has been a homemaker since the day they married and they are able to live comfortably on one income, raise two little boys, have a house in the country on six acres. (Caveat: they bought the house as a fixer-upper, before the real estate market took off, and he has done most of the handyman work himself.)

My husband is a boilermaker and sheet-metal worker who retired in his 50s, has a nice pension from the union (though those types of things are going by the way of the dinosaur) and health insurance. He has a side business home-remodeling.

These are skilled trades, BTW. I spoke with a skilled tradesman the other day who is made $100k last year.

The trades are not for everybody, but they're nothing to sneeze at. There's a shortage of machinists right now, BTW.

[carincross]

6. piercing through the MSM smoke and mirrors

As a noted economist Dr. Roberts relies on facts, not hype. That is what makes his articles so disturbing and valuable. Not only does he point out the poor job performance in this article, but he puts his finger on the H-1B and L-1 visa scandals. US corporations want smart, cheap labor - no matter what it costs America.

[necso]

7. "America has begun a polarization into rich and poor.

The resulting political instability and social strife will be terrible."

Yep.

But it will be some time yet before the pull of the gravity-well becomes too strong to be ignored by the delusional, idiotic, apathetic, etc. (And even then many will misinterpret it -- and/or react by charging down the well.)

Militarism, authoritarianism, corporatism, globalism, elitism -- a fatally poisonous brew.

[jrw14125]

8. We're like the former inhabitants of Easter Island...

[brokensymmetry]

9. Kicked & Nominated.

Print it and share it with everyone. Especially the repugs you know.

[mhr]

14. Unemployed 5 Years 2000-2005 - I lived this Hell!

The fundies are smoking dope as usual.

[raccoon]

15. God, that had to have been hell.

How old are you, if you don't mind telling us?

[mhr]

21. Presently 48 Going On 49

eom

[shrike]

16. I remember your saga

I take it your job is working out -- glad to hear that.

Don't know how you survived, frankly. I've been unemployed at various times, but for a matter of months, not years. And that was bad enough.

[mhr]

22. Hi Shrike - Things Are Going Well

I am working in air traffic control again which is an industry that one can feel relatively good about with it's focus on public safety and all.

So far I have been to France twice, UK once, Netherlands once, leave for Prague and Vienna in two weeks, after that Chile, then back to France for meetings in Toulouse.

It's been a good ride that I hope lasts awhile.

mhr

[shrike]

23. Like they say, living well is the best revenge. n/t

[katty]

17. American Plantation! win that new low end job today!

[Kare]

19. Petition to Abolish H1-b visas

http://www.zazona.com/H1BPetition/l/textLetter.pdf

h1-b visas take away more and more jobs, we all need
to do what we can make sure that americans get american jobs

[Kare]

20. No job left behind

[gizmo1979]

24. They just did a big story on NBC

last night on how the jobs picture was so rosey.What kind of jobs are they talking about?Jay Leno had a good line last night "The UAE threatened not to buy any American products in the future,we fooled them we don't make anything in America anymore"!