Time Magazine (Sunday): Republicans on the Run

[Jack Rabbit]

From Time Magazine
Posted Sunday March 26

Republicans on the Run
If the midterm elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives
By Karen Tumulty and Mike Allen

Considering that Vice President Dick Cheney had come a long way to help Florida Congressman Ric Keller raise $250,000 last week, the reception he got in the Sunshine State could have been a bit warmer. After extolling Cheney as "one of the most effective Vice Presidents in the history of the U.S.," Keller launched into all the times he had recently opposed the Bush Administration, including the deal to allow a Dubai company to manage operations at several U.S. ports. And then Keller went right for the punch line: "'Don't be too hasty,'" he claimed the Vice President had pleaded with him. "'Let's go hunting. We'll talk about it.'"

As the campaign season kicks into gear, Republican incumbents are having a hard time figuring out how close they want to be to the White House. Voters have plenty to take out on Republican candidates this year—ethics scandals, the g.o.p.'s failure to curb spending, the government's inept response to Hurricane Katrina, a confusing new prescription-drug program for seniors and, more than anything else, an unpopular President who is fighting an unpopular war. Iraq could make a vulnerability of the Republicans' greatest asset, the security issue.

The midterm contests in a President's second term are almost always treacherous, but this time around, Republicans thought it would be different. The 2006 elections, coming on top of their gains in 2002 and 2004, would make history and perhaps even cement a g.o.p. majority in Congress for a generation. George W. Bush's credibility on national security and the states' aggressive gerrymandering, they believed, had turned the vast majority of districts into fortresses for incumbents. But that's not turning out to be the case. In recent weeks, a startling realization has begun to take hold: if the elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives and could come within a seat or two of losing the Senate as well. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who masterminded the 1994 elections that brought Republicans to power on promises of revolutionizing the way Washington is run, told Time that his party has so bungled the job of governing that the best campaign slogan for Democrats today could be boiled down to just two words: "Had enough?"

Iraq is driving nearly all the big indicators the wrong way for Republicans. In a Time poll conducted last week, Bush's job approval rating was mired at 39%; 3 in 5 Americans said the country is headed in the wrong direction, and when those surveyed were given the choice between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat for Congress, the nameless Democrat won, 50% to 41%. The signs suggest an anti-Republican wave is building, says nonpartisan electoral handicapper Stuart Rothenberg, whose Rothenberg Political Report is closely followed in Washington. "The only question is how high, how big, how much force it will have. I think it will be considerable." The danger signs for Republicans show up across the electoral map but nowhere more clearly than in the swing state of Pennsylvania, where the hottest Senate race in the country is being fought and where Republican strategists say as many as five g.o.p. congressional seats are in play, out of a total 19. The President is still beloved by the state's Republican faithful, as evidenced by the fact that 500 of them showed up to see him at a $1,000-a-plate private fund raiser for Senator Rick Santorum last week in Sewickley Heights, a suburb of Pittsburgh. Santorum posed for photos with the President at the airport and leaned into a smiling handshake with political guru Karl Rove. But it was telling that Santorum, who is trailing state treasurer Bob Casey by 10 points in the latest polls, scheduled no public appearances with Bush. When Cheney flew to Newark, N.J., earlier in the week to raise nearly $400,000 that state senator Tom Kean Jr. badly needs in his bid for the U.S. Senate, the candidate didn't show up until 15 minutes after the Vice President's motorcade had left. Kean blamed the state's notorious traffic for his tardiness. Local papers confirmed that there hadn't been much congestion at the time.

Read more.

[Warpy]

1. All they have left is HATE

We'll see if that's enough this time. It was in 2004. Everybody knows that all their ideas are pure bullshit and that they're nothing but a gang of thieves and don't give a shit about this country. However, they're great at HATE and a segment of the population loves to hate.

[hippiechick]

2. ... and fear ~ don't forget the FEAR.

n/t :(

[Jack Rabbit]

3. To paraphrase Golda Mier . . .

Democrats will win elections when Christian fundamentalists start loving their own families more than hate gay ones.

[MissWaverly]

4. That's a great phrase

I intend to buy Time this week just to get that headline, it has a beautiful ring to it.
Republicans on the run.

[supernova]

5. Thanks Jack Rabbit for the enjoyable read this morning

I'm glad the worm is finally turning and that people are waking up to the horrendous events that this fucked up maladministration has unleashed upon us and the world. It's time to clean house.

[opihimoimoi]

6. Republicans on the RUN? Then they shoulda used more wisdom in choosing

their man for Prez...HE is a REFLECTION of the PUB PARTY after all....They backed him and funded him...didn't they now??

[RedEarth]

7. good read

[msgadget]

8. If he drops, we all drop

In an internal Republican Party memo provided to Time, Jan van Lohuizen, a longtime Bush pollster, warns candidates tempted to distance themselves that "President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the '08 nomination. If he drops, we all drop.

...

Democratic strategists acknowledge that they have yet to sell voters on their party. In the Time poll, approval for congressional Democrats is no higher (39%) than for Republicans, and 56% of voters said they don't believe the Democrats offer a clear set of alternative policies...

I don't see anything in this article that proves the sit-back-and-take-it strategy is a winning one.

[depakid]

9. False hopes

The Dems are deluding themselves if they think they can continue with their pathetic performances and pick up more than a few seats. They've failed to set themselves up for any sort of national campaign. They don't offer any kind of coherent alternative to vote FOR.

[Jack Rabbit]

10. I wouldn't think a sit-back strategy is a good one

No one should think it is.

The Democrats have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2000, 2002 and 2004. We cannot allow it to happen in 2006. That means we have to campaign actively and get out the vote. Nevertheless, Bush has handed the Democrats every advantage imaginable.

[Judi Lynn]

11. Apparently they believe their backs are to the wall.....

From the article:

.....Republican strategists say they plan to battle the national tide by localizing individual races. Localizing suggests drawing voters' attention to the issues that most affect them at home. But in practice, to political operatives it means putting an opponent through the shredder. Republicans plan to go after Democratic challengers with every bit of ammunition they can find, from old tax liens to long-ago votes to raise local taxes.

Very interesting. Thanks.

[cyr330]

12. Let's not hold our breath

The Dems will fuck it up. Mark my words. We have Hillary just tacking to the right, just salivating at the idea of all the conservative Republicans who are going to vote for her. . . . They're just going to love her newfound stance on abortion, flag burning, and so on. . . . All those koolaid drinkers are going to abandaon the GOP en masse and jump on the Hillary Mobile. Yes, the problem with the Democratic Party is that they are just not enough like the Repigs; we all need to become more "conservative"; let's not criticize our leader in a time of war! After all, it's just not respectful to consider impeaching him in these troubled times. We need a "strong" government that isn't afraid to eavesdrop on us. We should all be willing to allow big brother to listen in. . . . After all, if we don't have anything to hide, why should we mind? And let's not forget that we need to apologize to the Repigs for any and all past and present transgressions. Maybe we can use Harry Reid as an example? We can do as he did and cry and apologize. That's just what I want-- a candy ass Dem who acts like a Repig.

[cliss]

13. Thanks J. Rabbit

for posting this. You have no idea how much I want to see these guys go down in flames.

Sometimes I get surprised at how much I want revenge on the Repugnant Repubs. Right now, I have white foam hanging out of the corners of my mouth at the thought of it.

Still, there's a long ways to go before November. Count on dirty tricks, every step of the way.