Dems Face Uphill Battle to Retake House (Busby race not encouraging)

[DeepModem Mom]

WP,pg1: Democrats Face Uphill Battle to Retake House
By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, April 13, 2006; Page A01

....Tuesday's special election north of San Diego to fill the seat of former congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R-Calif.) showed that the Democrats face an uphill battle to pick up seats even in districts where the Republicans have their backs to the wall. Democrat Francine Busby, running on a theme of ethics in government, finished first in a crowded field of 18 candidates to succeed Cunningham, who was sent to prison after pleading guilty to taking bribes in return for legislative favors.

Busby, a school board member and self-described soccer mom, garnered only 44 percent of the vote and was forced into a June 6 runoff, possibly with former Republican congressman Brian P. Bilbray, who finished second with 15 percent. State GOP leaders expect Republicans to coalesce around the eventual nominee in the runoff and retain the seat.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said his party was able to avoid a primary fight in California and is emerging from Tuesday's balloting united and ready to go after independent voters. In contrast, he said, Republicans will have to unite a fractious party around a nominee who still has not been officially named....

***

Political analysts divide the Democratic field into three tiers: the top-ranked challengers who pose a real threat to Republican incumbents, a second level of challengers who have a chance because of the Republicans' problems nationally and their own competence on the stump, and a third tier of aspirants who have proved to be inept campaigners but who are running in swing districts that are susceptible to change....

***

Currently, there are 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats, one independent and two vacant seats in the House. It will be up to lesser Democratic lights -- running in Republican districts with less-than-glowing résumés -- to help provide the 15 net victories Democrats need to take back control of the House...In that context, Busby's performance -- respectable but not surprising -- is not encouraging to Democrats, said Stuart Rothenberg, a congressional analyst and editor of the Rothenberg Political Report....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/12/AR2006041202042.html

[flyarm]

1. hmmm and tom delays resume was??????? bugman??? this is

bullshit..its propaganda!!

fly

[TexasLawyer]

2. Right--

RNC damage control.

[Sapere aude]

3. I don't get it. A Dem beats all repup contenders and we have a problem?

It is a solid repub district and the Dem gets 40 some % and no repub got out of the teens and we have the problem. Sounds like repub spin to me.

[Longhorn]

4. I'm glad it's not just me. That analysis doesn't make sense.

Eighteen candidates and Busby gets 44% and that's a bad sign? Like this special election is typical of what we'll see in the fall? Give me a break!


Edited to correct percentage -- it was even better than I had mistakenly cited.

[progressivebydesign]

6. Yeah, I thought that 40% was impressive based on the field. n/t

[Norquist Nemesis]

5. I guess I just see it completely different!

Last night on Lou Dobbs, the guy from the WSJ opinionjournal.com (RW partisan), spoke in 'glorious' terms of how wonderful the leading Republican did in the Dukester's districts. Barely and utterance of the Democrat...and not a peep that in a field of 18 candidates, this simply marvelous race showing the fabulous strength of Republicans the leading (R) got a whopping 15%!!!

In such a 'strong' Republican district, 44% for a Democrat is more than just a flash in the pan.

[onehandle]

7. WaPo and WaTimes are cut from the same cloth.

It's narratives like this that tell me so.

[AndyA]

8. Pure Repug spin - I wonder what they're pumping through the A/C system

to make these people come up with this stuff. You can be sure if a Repug candidate got 44% of the vote, it would be a MANDATE from the citizens that they want Repug leadership!

Face it Repugs, you've screwed up. Big time. You've made a big mistake over the last few years. HUGE. And people are fed up with you.

America is turning blue, the color of the sky, which represents hope for a better America under Democratic guidance.

[xxqqqzme]

9. the rethugs never tire of smearing sh*t

on the window so they can spoil the view. For all their work 2 turn CA red, it is getting bluer cuz the red counties are not so red anymore. The red counties are primarily counties w/ older, white demographics. As those ages get younger and not so white, the red trends 2 purple. That's what is happening in OC anyway. I think the rethugs R gonna B surprized in Nov, even w/ mcpherson certifying diebold.

[liam_laddie]

10. CA-50 percentages...

In the CA state forum, someone mentions that the district has a 30% Dem
registration, so 44% looks pretty damn good. That said, someone else who
knew the party breakdown of the (18) candidates in the race, said that by
party, D's took 44% and R's 54%; that's still a 10% margin for R...
I cannot verify that these are accurate, just reportin' others' stats...

[otohara]

American's Will Continue to Vote Against Interests ..So Say Pundits

The media manipulation begins... over and over in MSM that's all you hear.

American's want change now, but when November comes rolling around, they will stick with GOP.

So it be said, so it be done - the media pundits say so! self-fulfilling prophecy

[movonne]

11. Making it easy for stealing this election...I really can't believe that

the people in San Diego are that stupid...enough of this right wing corruption..

[Peace Patriot]

12. Yup, what a load of crap from WaPo. But I want to point out something

I was just commenting about, on another thread, re: a WaPo article on Fitzgerald/Libby--that editors and reporters of rags like WaPo and NYT are sometimes not in sync. The eds skewer the headlines and sometimes the lead, to twist things around in favor of the Bush junta and other Corporate interests, but the reporter is more even-handed and gets some facts and some counterings in there, often pushed to page 2 at the bottom of the article.

This case is interesting. The headline outright contradicts the facts of the article--that Dem Busby running in a field of 13, in a very Repub district, garnered FORTY-FOUR PERCENT of the vote, and her nearest Repub rival got only 15%. THAT is not just good, it is GREAT news for the Dems and the anti-Bush forces in the country.

Yet the headline completely misses the significance of those stats. It states the obvious truth of an "uphill battle" for the Dems (30 seats short of a majority in the House, currently), and completely IGNORES what happened in the OPENING SHOT of that battle--a rout for the Dems!

And the article's use of that word "only" is also interesting. "Only 44%." The Repubs "15%" does NOT getting that dissing word, "only," in front of it. They don't say "only 15%" about the Repub in a VERY REPUB district--they call it "a second-place finish." Who deserves the "only"?

I'd like to know who put "only" in front of Busby's 44%. Maybe the author. On the other hand, this and other little bits throughout the article give me the feeling that the article was messed with. Either that, or the head of its author has been messed with.

If you read down the article, you find out that there are a whole lot of candidates like Busby, daring to run in Repub strongholds. Read between the lines. The facts are there--just greatly skewed by surrounding phrases and selectively chosen "experts" and their stupid opinions about surfboards and "waves."

Busby's 44% win is huge, and it IS a harbinger.

Storming the House is nothing us Dems should take for granted, that's sure--especially with rightwing Bushite corporations "counting" all the votes with "TRADE SECRET," PROPRIETARY programming code and virtually no audit/recount controls, and the war profiteering corporate news monopolies FAILING to cry foul on NON-TRANSPARENT, partisan-controlled, FRAUDULENT election systems.

But Busby's big win is a major sign that the American people--including a whole lot of Repub voters--are in revolt. Truth to tell, they were in revolt in 2004, but that's another story.