Hybrids Overhyped? (NYT Op-Ed)

[Psephos]

The author, a professional automotive tester, makes a strong case that hybrids, while well-suited to certain urban-intensive driving situations, are actually less-suited to longer distances than conventional cars. The technology, he argues, is wasteful of resources other than fuel, wasteful of fuel on highway driving, and creates recycling issues. Tax incentives, special hybrid-only lanes and parking, and other inducements are creating unintended consequences.

This is a good article that identifies where hybrid technology can be useful, and where it cannot. Hybrids are no panacea, and broad financial incentives may end up distorting the market so that no net savings of oil results.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/16/opinion/16kitman.html?ex=1302840000&en=eb4aa18b1c661d61&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

[OldLeftieLawyer]

1. My brother owns automotive clinics

Fancy names for fancy car repair places. When the hybrids showed up, all his guys assured me that unless someone was going to do at least 60 miles of long-distance driving a day, a hybrid was just a waste of money.

Ever since then, I've been convinced that they're not worth it. That was a few years back, too.

[Warpy]

3. Not only that, but you have to factor in battery life

and the cost of replacing, recycling, disposing of the old batteries.

I opted for a little econobox. My other car is a moped, so between them I won't be using a whole lot of gas.

[still_one]

11. He is wrong. Check out the Prius

I average 75 to 80 miles per hour between northern and southern california, and get an average of 45 miles per gallon. When I am in the city, I get close to 50 miles per gallon. Why? Because the electric motor and the internal combustion engine are synchronized. When you are stopped, you are only running on the electric motor. The air conditioning and other utilities also run off the electric motor. When you accelerate a combination of both motors work together for the best efficiency.

It is not a waste of money in my experience, and at close to 3 bucks a gallon I save even more. There are two batteries. The one that runs the electric motor is designed in cell units, and it is unlikely that all the cells would go out at once. The hybrid components, including the battery are under waranty for 100000 miles, and you can buy and extended waranty if you want. As far as maintenance, I have found no difference in price, in fact there is very little that needs to be down with the electric motor, and the internal combustion engine is the same a other cars.

Please do not take this the wrong way, but there may be a conflict of interest with your brother who works mostly on standard cars. Most people with hybrids take them to the dealers, even though oil changes and standard maintenance on the internal combustion engine is the same as standard cars.

The problem comes with the higher end hybrids, where the extra cost of the vechicle may NOT justify the price, unless you are buying it purely for environmental considerations. The Prius and the Honda Civic are about 21000. The Camery hybrid which will be out later this year will go for around 25000 with a rated mpg of 40. When you start to look at the Escape, and highlander which go for 25000 to 40000 dollars, then it becomes not as cost effective. Eventually, the price will go down because more competition is coming out. The Saturn Vue will be out this year for about 22000. It will only get better.

[MadisonProgressive]

15. I have a Prius

and I agree with everything you said!

[OldLeftieLawyer]

16. I hope you're right, and

the guys were wrong. As I said, this was a few years ago. I doubt that "protecting" the business has anything to do with it, because they constantly upgrade and take courses and are learning everything all the time - very high-tech place and people.

We need this, so I'm glad you're getting good results. We need this so much.

Thanks.

[still_one]

19. I want to make clear that the highlander and even the escape hybrids

are NOT necessarily cost effective because the MSRP is too high, and it would take too long to justify the fuel savings cost, unless of course gas went up to above four dollars a gallon, so your brother is somewhat correct with the high end hybrids, the cost of the car does not justify the savings

In addition, the Prius hybrids first came around 1998 in Japan, and are still going strong. If the hybrid battery needed to be fully replaced it would cost around 5000 dollars, but since it is designed in units, they probably would NOT have to replace the whole battery, which would cost less. The hybrid components are covered up to 100000 miles on the Prius. A concern will eventually be how to dispose of the batteries. I do NOT know what the Honda waranty is.

The electric/gas hybrids are only an intermediate step anyway. What will really revolutionize our independence is with hydrogen fuel cells, which will initially be fuel cell/gas hybrid.

Hopefully hybrids will be the same price as conventional engines, just like VCRs initially cost 1000 dollars

I should not have implied that their was a conflict of interest, and I appologize

[OldLeftieLawyer]

25. Oh, dear......

You implied no such thing - not, at least, that I inferred - and your posts were informative and top-notch. Please don't think you have to apologize for anything.

I know almost nothing but what I was told about hybrids, so I just threw in my two cents' worth. As it stands, you know a lot more.

Thanks for an excellent exchange.

[Kber]

23. I am seriously considering a Prius

about 90% of my driving is around town. Quick trips through neighborhood streets with stop signs, a few lights, etc.

For the longer trips, I figure we'd take our Ford Focus. Not sure if this is typical, but on a road trip from NJ to Northern MI, I averaged 32 - 33 mpg in the Focus, but that trip was 90% highway driving and it sounds like the Prius wouldn't be a good car to take on that kind of a trip.

I looked at the Honda Accord the the 4 cylinder engine version gets about the same mileage as the hybrid, so I'm not sure what the advantage would be. Lower emissions maybe?

[KeepItReal]

2. Excellent find. Not all hybrids are for max MPG.

<eom>

[rurallib]

4. I have wondered about repair costs, especially battteries

I figured I'd better wait til they'd been around about ten years and seee some history first.

[still_one]

5. Sorry I respectivefully disagree

I own two Prius cars, and without even trying I get 45 mpg on the freeway, going long distances, at an average speed of 75 to 80 mph

The second generation Prius, 2004 and later, not only boosted the power the car has, but also gave you better miles per gallon. To say it is wasteful of fuel on highway driving tells me he doesn't know what he is talking about. In addition, the hybrids are almost emission free.

I suggest you test drive a Prius, and tell me that it doesn't have enough power.

[lostexpectation]

6. Cars are overhyped

still theirs some truths on the article

[rhymeinreason]

7. Fuel economy is not the only argument for hybrids.

They also emit less CO2 than the average car.

[nashville_brook]

21. tisn't this why they get HOV status in CA? emissions, not milage.

[onehandle]

8. Hybrids are here to stay and will improve.

"less-suited to longer distances than conventional cars"

Duh. Even the manufacturers admit this.

In the mean time, 75+ mpg hybrids are on their way.

The "negative" factors will improve with time. It will take a while for related industries to catch up.

Very short sighted article. This technology just got out in the market.


Calculators use too many batteries. Slide rulers will always be number one.

[eomer]

9. "less-suited to longer distances" is not true.

My '04 Prius gets 50 MPG on long distance trips, +- a couple of MPG depending on wind speed and direction. If I wanted to slow down to 60 MPH then I could get more than 50 MPG.

Which conventional car is better on a long distance trip than 50 MPG?

[still_one]

13. You are absolutely correct

I sense a conflict of interest going on here. I have two prius cars, and without even trying, I get 45 mpg on the freeway going anywhere from 75 to 80 mph. No problem with power, if I need it, I get it, and yes the more power I use the more gas I will burn, but I will STILL burn less gas then a similar non-hybrid car

In addition, this year they are giving up to 3000 dollar credits, depending on which hybrid you buy. The civic and the prius are two that qualify for that credit

[onehandle]

14. You're right. I read it wrong.

What the Hell are they talking about?

I think the article's writer was financed by GM and Exxon.

[nashville_brook]

20. just drove coast to coast in a civic hybrid -- 40 mpg average

that's at highway speed and going all thru the mountains in new mexico, colorado and california.

i can go 600+ miles on a tank of gas in the civic. i had exactly 340 miles on a tank of gas in my last car (a bmw). this makes a pretty big difference when you're travelling.

my next car will be hybrid, and the next and the next until i can live somewhere where i don't need one the contraptions. :)

[Kber]

24. I guess they are only less suited for long distance trips

compared to their local mileage then. Interesting.

[Solo_in_MD]

12. Concur

They are still an emerging technology and are still maturing. I expect to see some specilization; very small urban commuters and some larger multi role. Many forget that the batteries are life limited and contain toxins.

When I get back to CA, I will have to get another car. My rolling wreck here in MD is basically a write off at this point. I commute most days on a motorcycle. However, where we live higher ground clearance is a requirement. While a Prius is tempting, its too low slung.

[DemFromMem]

10. And what about emissions?

I drive a Toyota Highlander Hybrid and it's a great car. It's a SULEV (Super-Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicle) which basically means it's a zero emission vehicle. I drive mostly in the city and it usually gets 30 to 33 miles to the gallon. I have a hard time seeing how one could say this is not a sensible car.

[Coastie for Truth]

17. The real point of the article was that the design engineers

(and the people who write the computer code for the "on board computer") can do two things- that are mutually exclusive:

a). leave the gas mileage and emissions alone, but improve acceleration, speed, or
b). leave acceleration and speed alone and improve mileage and emissions.

The next generation of hybrid software will allow the driver to control the "mode" between

a) conventional (non-hybrid levels of) gas mileage and emissions, but "muscle car" acceleration, speed, and
b). family car acceleration and speed alone but high mileage and low emissions.

This is technologically doable now, just like pushing the "overdrive" button on the shifter.

Likewise - using an on-board "database" of your driving, a future generation of computer code will optimize the choices to your driving.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

18. Hybrids, even the high end models, could...

...be made cost effective overnight by intelligent, forward thinking, environmentally responsible legislators...if we only had some. Imagine how hybrids would begin to sell if a full 25% of the purchase price could be taken as a tax credit. And further suppose when you renew your tags every year the cost is dependent on the MPG rating of the vehicle you drive--penalizing low MPG with high renewal fees and rewarding high MPG owners with very low fees. Futher suppose HOV lanes could be used by hybrids even with only one occupant. Federal and State legislation such as this could have meaningful impact in a short time. We need to start pressuring our representatives in this direction.

[Coastie for Truth]

22. Warning--

Don't know about Jamie Kitman, but

Professor Andy Kliet, Professor of Mineral Economics at Penn State University, has had similar criticism. He is an ExxonMobil endowed professor at Penn State, and is frequently quoted by George Will.

Professor Lester Lave, Professor of Economics at Carnegie Mellon Univ, has had similar criticism. Lester, who is a personal friend, receives grants from General Motors. Lester also postulated that because hybrids get such good mileage, a hybrid owner would be tempted to drive many more miles, and therefore burn more gas.

Check out Paul Krugman's column in today's NY Times to see how ExxonMobil hires "consultants" on these issues. Having been in the industry, it is safe to assume that GM does likewise.

DISCLAIMER - I was an executive of the think tank - incubator - venture fund that developed the Ni-MH batteries used in the hybrids and scheduled for the second generation General Motors EV - the one that was scrubbed.
;)