Fiddling While Baghdad Burns

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Subject: Progress Report: Fiddling While Baghdad Burns
Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2006 11:22:14 -0400 (EDT)
From: American Progress Action Fund <[e-mail]>
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by Judd Legum, Faiz Shakir, Nico Pitney
Amanda Terkel and Payson Schwin


April 18, 2006




Fiddling While Baghdad Burns

On Dec. 15, 2005, Iraqis went to the polls in large numbers to elect a permanent 275-member Iraqi National Assembly. But the Iraqis have yet to witness the fruits of their efforts. "Four months of political paralysis" have thwarted the formation of a unity government; Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunni legislators continue to tussle for political control. While their elected representatives have dithered, hundreds of Iraqis have been slaughtered in sectarian violence. Over this four-month period, 225 U.S. soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq. And yet, Iraqi leaders have little sense of urgency and continue to miss opportunities to bring the country together. The biggest sticking point in the political process has been whether incumbent Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari would serve a new four-year term. Jaafari's Dawa party said yesterday it does not plan to put forward a different nominee despite pressure from other political parties and President Bush. The announcement casts new doubt as to whether a "quick end to the stalemate" can be achieved.

EXPLANATION OF THE STALEMATE: As a result of the Dec. 2005 elections, the Shiite alliance – comprised mainly of the religious Dawa Party, led by Jaafari, and the more secular Supreme Council for the Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) party, led by Abdul Aziz Hakim – commanded 128 of the 275 total seats. Because the Shiites were unable to gain a majority of the seats, they were forced to make concessions with Kurdish and Sunni factions, who control almost all of the other seats, in order to form a government and fill important cabinet posts. The Bush administration has blamed Jaafari for the delays in bringing the parties together, but the prime minister has fought back against the U.S. efforts to oust him. The administration is pushing for a SCIRI candidate, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, to be the next prime minister, an individual who lost to Jaafari in February and whose return may divide the Shiite alliance. On the other hand, some suggest if Jaafari insists on remaining in office, "then Iraq will continue to be divided."
NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR VICTORY IN IRAQ FORGOTTEN: In late Nov. 2005, the Bush administration unveiled with great fanfare its National Strategy for Victory In Iraq. Nearly five months later, the administration has retrogressed by its own standards. The first step in the political plan to stand up the Iraqi government was to "isolate hardened enemy elements." But according to Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), "98 percent of the insurgency has now been transformed into Iraqis, far outnumbering the small minority of foreign fighters." The second step of the White House's plan was to engage "those outside the political process." But through heavy-handed meddling in Iraq’s political process, Bush has contributed to a political stalemate that has failed to produce a unity government for the past four months. The third step in the political track was to "build stable, pluralistic, and effective national institutions." The first meeting of the Iraqi parliament lasted only 30 minutes, and yesterday, it was announced that "leaders canceled a much-awaited parliament session following their failure to resolve a bitter dispute over the prime minister."

ESCALATING TENSIONS IN BAGHDAD: Through just the first half of April, at least 48 U.S. soldiers have already died in Iraq, eclipsing the total of 30 who died all of last month. The rate of casualties is at the highest point since late last year. Reporting from inside Iraq indicates an escalation in hostilities, particularly in Baghdad, which serves as an important barometer of the country’s stability. Yesterday, U.S. troops waged a seven-hour battle against Iraqi forces in Baghdad that killed 50 insurgents and raised "fresh questions about security in the capital." U.S. and Iraqi forces were forced to seal off a prominent Sunni neighborhood in Baghdad, signaling "deteriorating security in a neighborhood where attacks...had ebbed in recent months." The Iraqi Islamic Party, a leading Sunni Arab political group, released a statement calling for calm and stating that a "human disaster might occur."

UPDATE ON BUSH'S COUNTEROFFENSIVE: Just over a month ago, a headline in the Washington Post blared, "Bush Goes On Offensive To Explain War Strategy." The President subsequently delivered a series of speeches that sought to convince the American public that he had a strategy for victory in Iraq. After hearing Bush make his case, the American public was not swayed. The USA Today reported the results of Bush’s efforts, “Like a man on a treadmill, President Bush has gotten almost nowhere making speeches over the past seven months to boost public support for the war in Iraq. Political rhetoric is not a substitute for action; both the Iraqi and American public desperately seek an alternative to Bush's failed "stay the course" strategy. Seventy percent of Iraqis favor a timetable for withdrawal, and 68 percent of Americans favor the initiation of a drawdown. American Progress has a responsible strategy of Strategic Redeployment from Iraq that refocuses the attention on global security threats.

NO ACCOUNTABILITY: While each successive day in Iraq spotlights the administration’s deeply flawed post-war plan, a chorus of retired generals have raised their voices to demand accountability. Retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, former chief of the U.S. Central Command, said it best: "We grow up in a culture where accountability, learning to accept responsibility, admitting mistakes and learning from them was critical to us. When we don't see that happening it worries us. Poor military judgment has been used throughout this mission." Though he has been at the forefront of the most egregious errors, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is not the only Iraq war architect who deserves blame. Instead of being held accountable, many of those administration officials who have so incompetently misled and mismanaged the war have been given golden parachutes or promotions. See the Progress Report's analysis of the Iraq war architects.