A "post-automobile America"?

[KansDem]

For my 5,000 post...:)

A "post-automobile America"?

Railway Age, June, 2005 by William C. Vantuono

(excerpt)
"Exburbians moved to the farthest reaches of suburbia for cheap real estate, willing to drive at least an hour each way to work. Many live marginally now. What happens when their commute becomes prohibitively expensive, just as interest rates and inflation rise, while their property values plummet? Urban real estate will go up, so they won't be able to live near their jobs--there's nowhere else to go.... What happens to these people? Exburb refugees. A modern Dust Bowl. For the rural poor, it's even worse."

Ventura's predictions include suburbs and cities "in various states of chaos, depending on their infrastructure," among other draconian scenarios. What will save this country from implosion? It's--no surprise here--rail, specifically, passenger rail

Here's his rationale: "With gas at $4-plus a gallon, real estate values will depend on nearness to working centers and access to transportation.... Places with decent rail service will be prime. Places without rail service will be in deep trouble. One key to America's future will be: How quickly can we build or rebuild heavy and light rail? And where will we get the money to do it? Railroads are the cheapest transport, the easiest to sustain, and the only solution to a post-automobile America. Hybrid cars and alternative energy won't cut it, if by 'cut it' one means retaining anything like the present standard of living.... A massive investment in railroad infrastructure could offer jobs to the unskilled and skilled alike, absorb much of the inevitable population displacement, and create a new social equilibrium 10 or 15 years down the line. Old railroad cities like Grand Junction, Colo.; Amarillo, Tex., and Albuquerque, N.Mex., could become vital centers, offering new lives for the displaced. Railroads are key, but the question is: how to finance them?"

"There's only one section of our economy that has that kind of money: the military budget," Ventura concludes. "The U.S. now spends more on its military than all other nations combined. A sane transit to a post-automobile America will require a massive shift from military to infrastructure spending. That shift would be supported by our bankers in China and Europe (they would continue to finance our debt) because it's in their interests that we regain economic viability."

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Although this article appeared last summer, it is quite relevant today…and tomorrow.

[mrcheerful]

1. Wrong, the rich and semi rich will have autos, the working class and

poor will get stuck on the bus. Thats been the republican plan since Ford came out with a cheap auto, before Fords model T only the wealthy could afford autos. Want proof, look at insurance rates since the 1980's.

[shrike]

15. Actually, whatever Henry Ford's faults

and they were many, he believed in paying his workers a salary that would allow them to buy his products.

Can we say that about today's executives?

[apple_ridge]

16. That is, if the poor people (everyone else) don't get

violent and it becomes too dangerous for the rich to drive.

[sui generis]

2. train hopping hobos resurface, wearing gucci and carrying briefcases

sorry, got caught up in the moment :blush:

:rofl:

Yes, add to that those big ass high ceiling big hair houses can't be cooled in the hotter, drier global warming summers or adequately heated in the creeping marginal northern winter extremes and cold snaps, and garages suck for storing horses and cabriolets, nevermind most "Plano" communities don't even have permeable groundcover, much less grazing for draft animals.

Oh yeah, don't forget, we're running out of drinking water, bathing water, 24/7 electricity (to run work-from-home offices) and ordinary metals (which we're burying in city landfills by the brazillions of tons every day).

It's looking pretty bleak for our grand-kiddos.

[enid602]

3. Thank God for Metrolink

LA has Metrolink, 500+ mi of commuter trains connecting downtown with suburbs and exurbs, and also almost 100 mi of Metro rail.

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. And our economy will tank as we spend billions and billions

to simply catch up with Europe on public transport.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. Our economy will tank anyway

if we do nothing except wave bye bye to all our jobs being outsourced. Building a state of the art infrastructure was what FDR did during the New Deal, and it helped employ an awful lot of people. Same thing could happen again. And if we go broke-well, I'd rather have spent the money this way than give it to the richest 1%.

[RaleighNCDUer]

9. If we were to subsidize rail at the same rates we subsidize the

highway system and the airlines, we could have a 1st class system. And that is a good point - if we put the money into it now, it will be brand new, while the established rail systems in Europe and Japan are aging. could give us an edge.

[enid602]

11. Madrid

Madrid (pop 2.5MM) has more miles of both subway and commuter rail than New York City, and it is all new, gleaming and well-maintained. You've also got a well-socialized populace that actually knows how to use mass transit.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

5. Around WWII, there was an interurban railway system in IL

my mother told me about it. The old rail lines were right by the highways. To my mind, interurban rail makes sense, and I would support the development of high speed rail in this nation. It would employ American laborers to build it, maintain it, and to service it.

[lagavulin]

10. You know what happened to the inter-urban rails, right?

A collusion of General Motors, Standard Oil, and Firestone Tires bought up local rail transit throughout the U.S., then scrapped them and sold off the parts. A Point/Counterpoint is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy">available here via Wiki.

Basically, tho', GM was found guilty of criminal conspiracy, fined $5,000. From what I've read elsewhere, the CEO himself was fined $1. That's not a typo.

Anywho....now our entire economic and social culture is built around automobiles and cheap oil. The cost of rail has always been comparable to the cost of flying whenever I've compared fares, and while it's much more "civilized" it also takes much longer. I don't see rail travel getting much of a rebirth. Some. Probably. But not much.

[raccoon]

14. I'm getting "The page cannot be displayed" on that link. nt

[lagavulin]

7. If gas prices rise so far that people can't afford to drive (& they will)

...we've got bigger problems than just taking the train into work. This article is obviosly pro-rail--which is good...rail travel has many advantages--but the argument itself is full of holes.

Also, as Richard Heinberg is arguing in his new book http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/033006Heinberg.shtml">The Case for Impeachment of Bush and Cheney, there is no question of shifting military funds toward post-petroleum preparedness. This administration never wanted us to avoid the Peak Oil crisis in the first place....

[Oldtimeralso]

8. If the shrub admin. has its way NO PASSENGER SERVICE

They are currently trying their best to kill Amtrak, and break the unions (most employees have gone since Jan 1, 2000 without a wage increase). x(

[godhatesrepublicans]

12. I have seen the future, and it looks kinda Amish.

There will not be trains, because we won't have the cheap energy required to manufacture the tracks and lay them. We won't have huge factory farms for the same reason. A lot of people will freeze in the dark.

I picture horse drawn street cars in the cities, and gardens in every back yard to make up for the increased food prices. Apartment dwellers will be screwed, because you can't grow many peas in a window box.

You want to see how the Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck will be living when oil hits $120 a barrel? Find a documentary on how the dirt poor people live in India or Bangladesh. They manage somehow, and so will we.

[katty]

13. indeed, it does...urban & rural powerdown, save your work

boots, coats, warm coats, plastic crap that may serve some useful purpose-learn how to make candles and soap.