Of Little Boys and Fat Men

[bemildred]

Nice examination of the consequences of casual use of Nukes.

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For example, compared to 15 and 20 Kilo Ton yields of Little Boy and Fat Man, the Minuteman III ICBM carries a warhead with a 300 kiloton (KT) yield and the Trident II SLBM--475 KT. The B-2 and B-52 bombers carry nuclear warheads with yields ranging from 500 KT to the B83 mega-bomb yielding 1-2 megatons. These weapons’ yields are capable of inflicting a horrendous level of collateral damage if detonated on the target’s surface in an attempt to create blast and overpressure sufficient enough to neutralize hardened and deeply buried targets. The awesome yields of these weapons, in fact, are so powerful that using these in the Iranian context would amount to killing a fly with a sledge hammer.\

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Firstly, in the 19 or so alleged Iranian nuclear facilities that are dispersed throughout Iran, it is very difficult to find one vital choke point neutralizing which the Iranian program is stopped or stalled for a long time. Even after a nuclear attack on these facilities, not only will the element of uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear quest continue to linger, it may even spur Iran into an even more frenzied acceleration of its program in total disregard of all international actors.

Secondly, not only would the use of low-yield warheads make these a cherished weapon resulting in arms races amongst many potential adversaries, such an act would simply make their eventual use even more likely. That is because they promote the illusion that nuclear weapons could be used in ways which minimize their "collateral damage," making them tempting tools to be used like conventional weapons. In fact, for this very reason, a 1994 law specifically prohibits the nuclear laboratories from undertaking research and development that could lead to a precision nuclear weapon of less than 5 kilotons (KT), because "low-yield nuclear weapons blur the distinction between nuclear and conventional war." But then in a world gone lawless, who would care for such legal niceties.

Thirdly, no earth-burrowing missile can penetrate deep enough into the earth to contain an explosion with a nuclear yield even a fraction of the 15 kiloton Hiroshima weapon. It will still result in massive numbers of civilian casualties. Various studies have shown that in order to be fully contained, nuclear explosions must occur at a depth of 650 feet for a 5 kiloton explosive — 1300 feet for a 100-kiloton explosive. Even then, there are no guarantees. Therefore, even if an earth penetrating missile were somehow able to drill hundreds of feet into the ground and then detonate, the explosion would most likely shower the surrounding region with highly radioactive dust and gas.

Fountainhead