The GOP Will Hang on (and control both houses of Congress after 11/06)

[papau]

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-ferguson18sep18,0,4669318.story?track=tottext
NIALL FERGUSON
Niall Ferguson: The GOP Will Hang on
All those predictions of an autumn of discontent will likely go up in smoke.
Niall Ferguson

September 18, 2006

WILL IT ONLY be the leaves that descend this fall? Or could some Republican legislators also end up being swept into piles and incinerated?

At first sight, the omens are good for the Dems in November's midterm elections. Gallup's national poll of voting intentions has given them a 10-point lead over the Republicans for most of the last year. The obvious explanation is gloom about Iraq, which remains the No. 1 issue in voters' minds. President Bush defended his policy trenchantly in the run-up to the fifth anniversary of 9/11, but his approval rating has improved only slightly as a result.

Then there's the economy. If that proves to be the key issue of this campaign, the Democrats look unstoppable. Voters give them a 12-point advantage when it comes to handling the economy, and twice as big a lead on Social Security. Small wonder so many of my liberal colleagues have a spring in their step.

Asked if they feel more enthusiastic than usual about voting, 56% of Democrats say they do, compared with just 43% of Republicans. For three good reasons, however, I expect the Dems to be disappointed — just as they were two years ago.<snip>

[AX10]

1. Niall Ferguson is a Neo-Con.

[WCGreen]

2. The guy is clueless....

[movonne]

3. Setting us up for another diebold election...I feel that is the only

way they will keep the house....

[papau]

4. that is also my fear. Sweeden/Mexico/US "narrow wins for right" or a con?

:-)

[dicknbush]

5. I wouldn't underestimate this point of iew...

It is true that we the few who really pay attention to the nuts and bolts of politics are feeling optimistic about the november election. However unless the independents are convinced that at the least a breaking mechanism is needed at this point as it relates to Bush and company we may be setting ourselves up for a "Dewey" moment. Now is the time for very deliberate and accertive advances on all fronts. Not offensive not aggresive but deliberate and most importantly HONEST DECLARATIONS TO THOSE WHO FEEL THAT SOMETHING IS WRONG!!!!

[Flabbergasted]

6. The above are three mediocre reasons

Try.....

1.) Diebold
2.) Fear of Change
3.) Stupidity and lack of insight.

[DeSwiss]

7. Who the hell is "Niall?" n/t

:boring:

[minnesota_liberal]

8. No matter. Election Day is 11/07.

Besides, who's Niall Ferguson and why should I care about his opinion?

[Berry Cool]

9. Here's his stupid crappy reasoning (and my opinion of it) in a nutshell.

1. Lots of Americans still believe invading Iraq "was a rational response to 9/11." (I guess we can't let the facts get in the way of our beliefs.)

2. When asked which party they trust to wage that war, they prefer the Republicans to the Democrats. (Yeah, but he's assuming the voters WANT to keep waging the war.)

3. If asked to choose between a Republican who wants to maintain troop levels in Iraq and a Democrat seeking "immediate and orderly withdrawal," more voters pick the Republican. "Americans may want troop reductions; they are not ready to cut and run." (Oh, well, by using THAT phrase he has just betrayed whose side he's on.)

4. It's the economy, stupid. And the economy is pretty good. (Yeah, tell that to people who lost their jobs to offshoring.)

5. The Republicans aren't talking partial amnesty for illegal immigrants right now, which their constitutency doesn't want. (Oh, big deal.)

6. Thanks to everyone's hero Karl Rove, all Republican rats have received permission to abandon the sinking ship S.S. Bush if they think he will hurt rather than help their reelection chances. (So, they think the Dems aren't going to be smart enough to tell them they can run from their Bush-loving pasts, but they can't hide?)

7. Gerrymandering helps incumbents win and makes bipartisan cooperation in Congress less necessary. (Something to celebrate, huh? Not.)

And if all that isn't comforting enough, he winds up with the favorite Repub bromide of the day: "It might actually be better if they DID lose. Because once the voters are reminded of how incoherent the Dems are, they will vote the Repubs back in for '08. Ah, but don't even worry about that. Not gonna lose."

Oh, the smugness and arrogance...Where IS that barf bucket when I need one?