William Kristol: "How Dean Could Win...."

[sfecap]

How Dean Could Win . . .

By William Kristol
Tuesday, December 9, 2003; Page A27


Going into the final day of the college football regular season, Oklahoma was undefeated and ranked No. 1. The Sooners had the best defense in the nation, had outscored their opponents by an average of 35 points and had a nine-game winning streak against ranked teams. "OU: Among best ever?" USA Today asked (rhetorically) on Friday. Kansas State, by contrast, had three losses, and had never won a Big 12 championship. Oklahoma was favored by two touchdowns. Kansas State, of course, won, 35-7.


For the next 11 months, Republicans, conservatives and Bush campaign operatives should, on arising, immediately following their morning prayers, repeat that score aloud 10 times. Underdogs do sometimes win. Howard Dean could beat President Bush. Saying you're not overconfident (as the OU players repeatedly did) is no substitute for really not being overconfident. And if Bush loses next November, it's over. There's no BCS computer to give him another shot at the national championship in the Sugar Bowl.

Could Dean really win? Unfortunately, yes. The Democratic presidential candidate has, alas, won the popular presidential vote three times in a row -- twice, admittedly, under the guidance of the skilled Bill Clinton, but most recently with the hapless Al Gore at the helm. And demographic trends (particularly the growth in Hispanic voters) tend to favor the Democrats going into 2004.

But surely the fact that Bush is now a proven president running for reelection changes everything? Sort of. Bush is also likely to be the first president since Herbert Hoover under whom there will have been no net job creation, and the first since Lyndon Johnson whose core justification for sending U.S. soldiers to war could be widely (if unfairly) judged to have been misleading.

(snip)

But is Dean a credible alternative? Was Kansas State? Dean has run a terrific primary campaign, the most impressive since Carter in 1976. It's true that, unlike Carter (and Clinton), Dean is a Northeastern liberal. But he's no Dukakis. Does anyone expect Dean to be a patsy for a Bush assault, as the Massachusetts governor was?

(more)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47806-2003Dec8.html

[wtmusic]

1. It's true, Bush is a proven president

a proven imbecile

[GainesT1958]

2. Wow, I actually agree with Bill Kristol on something...

Other than the fact that John McCain was by far the best candidate the Repubs could've run in 2004...:eyes:

And he's calling it correctly...no Repub would (outwardly, at least) admit that Dr. Dean had ANY kind of chance against Dub next year...and if they are as (inwardly) cocky as Oklahoma was Saturday evening in Kansas City against Kansas State, they'll likely find themselves on the same end of an upset loss as did the Sooners...and still shocked as to just how it could have happened!

I don't think Dr. Dean is our strongest candidate--on that I disagree with my man Al Gore--but I also don't think it's a "foregone conclusion", as do the media whores and their Repub buddies, that he'll lose a la Mondale or McGovern, either. Nor do I think it's a "foregone clonclusion" that he'll be the Party's nominee when NONE of the caucus or primary votes have been cast.

A LOT has to be "played" out yet, fellow DUers--on many levels--before ANY part of this campaign is "over"!

:kick:

B-)

[dreissig]

3. One-Term Bush, a Family Tradition

This time around, Bush will be running against a guy with real political talent, and Dean is going to outmaneuver him. Bush has not been a successful president, and he never became legitimate. If he'd won the election fair and square, more people would have given him the benefit of the doubt. He's a loser, like his father.

[BootinUp]

4. My analysis

Yes the dems have won the popular vote the last three times, last one being ridiculously close. The problem is that this does not translate necessarily into an electoral college win. And playing the state map game this early in the race is a little futile.

Instead I am looking at this from the perspective of where Dean is currently getting his support, according to the latest Gallup poll:

Dean Leads Among Liberals, Holds His Own Among Moderates
Candidate Support Among All Democrats, Compared by Ideology


Liberal Moderate Conservative

% % %

Dean 40 17 11

Clark 11 19 17

(I am only showing Dean and Clark, but you see the rest at http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031209.asp

Gallups analysis:

The latest results show Dean with especially strong support among Democrats who identify as liberals. He leads Clark, his next closest challenger, by 29 points (40% vs. 11%) among this group. Among moderate Democrats, Clark and Dean are closely matched for the lead. Among the relatively small group of Democrats who identify as conservatives, Gephardt holds a statistically significant lead over Dean and Lieberman. Dean garners just 11% of the conservative vote.


My Analysis:

Clearly Dean is going to have a tougher time picking up independents (farther right then conservatives above) than Clark. We need some of these votes! These are the votes Clark can and will get. And Clark has liberal policies to please any supporter of Dean. The problem is that the liberal wing of the democratic Party doesn't trust a general.

Is the fired up rhetoric of Dean going to attract moderates and independents the swing vote? Is Dean going to get any Red States?

[kaitykaity]

5. I think Dean could get Arkansas and Tennessee,

as well as Louisiana, because of his position
on gun control.

I even think Florida is in play. I don't think
the same same level of Democratic voter disenfranchisement
will be possible this time.

[qwlauren35]

6. I agree on Tennessee.

I think Gore will try to make sure that Tennessee goes Democratic this time. I'm not sure about Arkansas. It depends on whether Clark is willing to stump for Dean if Dean gets the nomination. There's no doubt in my mind that Edwards would NOT try to help Dean capture North Carolina. And while I think Graham would try to help Dean capture Florida, and Dean has been very active in campaigning down there, I think that state will be too close to call, AGAIN.

[Clark04_com]

11. Wes Clark can win - Dean would lose

For months now I have been telling anyone who would listen that Dean is guaranteed to lose. You can't win red states if (1) you are a Northeastern liberal (Dukakis, Dean), or if you promise to raise taxes (Mondale, Dean), or if you are an outspoken pacifist (McGovern, Dean).

For all the right reasons (Rhodes scholar, 4 star General, experienced, extremely intelligent, etc.) and all the wrong reasons (southern, telegenic, etc.) CLARK is the ONLY candidate who can beat Bush.

(Of course, anyone could beat Bush if the media started focusing on Bush administration's stunning incompetence and corruption, but don't hold your breath for this to happen.)

[newyawker99]

18. Hi Clark04_com!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[jmags]

14. As long as all the votes are counted

and Diebold isn't around to delete them, I think we'll see Dean snag a couple of red states from 2000.

[kclown]

21. 2000 election wasn't the closest popular vote

1960 119k.

1968 510k. 

[tinrobot]

7. Turnout is important as well...

Last election, the turnout was abysmal because most people saw little difference between the candidates. They were also fat, happy, and complacent because things went so well under Clinton.

That has certainly changed. I think this election will probably be one of the most important in the last few decades. I think turnout will be huge, and I think a huge turnout will favor the Dems.

[mot78]

8. Makes sense for Kristol to write this

He feels his fellow RWers are getting too complacent and feels Dean could do well, so he's trying to keep them alert.

[Martin Eden]

9. Kristol's credibility

IMO, he has very little of it after writing this...

... Bush is now a proven president ... whose core justification for sending U.S. soldiers to war could be widely (if unfairly) judged to have been misleading.

LOL:crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[John_H]

10. This is getting funny.

As long as folks buy into it, I guess the GOP can be as obvious and shameless as they want.

[Cocoa]

12. why are people taking this at face value?

Whether you agree with what he writes or not, please remember who this is. This is Bill Kristol, the former chairman of PNAC. Commentator on Fox News, chosen because he is the very best at poisoning minds.

[frustrated_lefty]

16. Because

Kristol is one of those very rare beasts: an intelligent republican. He, and others like him, are aware that a large segment of the reublican base is not particularly bright and is easily swayed by photo-ops and vague pseudo-patriotic gestures. That segment of their base is also prone to excessive disdain of liberals. Kristol knows the republican base cannot take that attitude against Dean in the general election. The republicans need high turnout against Dean, or they're going to lose by a landslide.

[Terwilliger]

13. Adolph Hitler: "How I think the Jews should act"

:wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf:

[KoKo]

15. Kristol, seems to be sending shot across bow warning to Powell/Rummy

in this article, rather than having much in the way of "enlightenment" about his view of Dean.

[Cha]

17. "hapless" Al Gore! What the

hell does that mean? Unfortunate? Just because the swarmy bushcos stole the election does not make Al Gore unfortunate...Gore will go down in History as the much better man!

[mistertrickster]

19. Kristol is forgetting one thing--Kansas State didn't beat Oklahoma

because OU was overconfident. I watched that game play-by-play while nursing homebrewed ale at the "Little Apple" Brewry and Steak House in Manhattan, Kansas, hometown of KSU.

Folks, Kansas State won that game because they kicked Big Red butt. Forget overconfidence . . . El Roberson and Darrin Sproles just tore them a new one--total one-two punch. OU was never in the game.

That's the same thing DEAN IS GONNA DO TO BUSH. Let the Repukes be as confident as they wanna be, the people are gonna be respected this time.

[0007]

20. This should be Dean's campaign ad!

A very powerful five minute video, Check it out!

http://www.angelfire.com/creep/gwbush/remindus.html