Don't Get Too Cocky, Dr. Dean

[PSU84]

Business Week DECEMBER 11, 2003

COMMENTARY: Don't Get Too Cocky, Dr. Dean
He will have to expand his base and calm fears of a GOP rout.

Favorite, yes. Nominee-in-waiting -- not quite yet. While there's no denying that the former Vermont governor has become the man with the mo, it's premature to anoint him before the balloting begins. That's because Dean has yet to broaden his base from a narrow core of idealistic college students and old-time lefties. Nor has Dean laid to rest the worries that his Bush-bashing campaign could lead to crushing Democratic setbacks in 2004.

<snip>
Here's a scenario to ponder: Dean comes in second in the Iowa caucuses. He goes on to take first place in the Jan. 27 primary in New Hampshire -- only to find a surging Clark right behind him. The showdown finally happens on Feb. 3, when Clark sets out to ambush Dean in more moderate states such as South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arizona. "The fact that Dean is adamantly against tax cuts could hurt him -- that and his stand on gay marriage," says Susan A. MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida. "Besides, the antiwar thing doesn't play well in the South."

<snip>
Narrow Appeal. Thus far, Dean's base is dominated by Net-heads and highly educated liberals. He needs to connect more solidly with other constituencies. First, there are black voters. Most African Americans don't know Dean, and many who do bristle at his clumsy remarks on the Confederate flag.

<snip>
But unless -- and until -- the internist with the sharp scalpel shows that he can articulate an inclusive message, don't rush out and order Dr. Dean's prescription. There's still a primary battle to be won, and Dean hasn't won it...yet.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/dec2003/nf20031211_2209_db045.htm

[Larkspur]

1. Don't get cocky Meadhead Media heads!

Narrow Appeal. Thus far, Dean's base is dominated by Net-heads and highly educated liberals. He needs to connect more solidly with other constituencies. First, there are black voters. Most African Americans don't know Dean, and many who do bristle at his clumsy remarks on the Confederate flag.

As a Dean supporter who is not a Net-head but is 42 year old college educated moderate liberal, I am relishing the day I will help make these Meadhead Media Heads eat their crow.

Regarding African Americans, where was this Bozo when Rep Jesse Jackson Jr, the chairman of the CBC, the majority of the Washington DC council members, Adrea Pringle - Braun's former campaign manager, endorsed and joined Dean's campaign?

[Demobrat]

3. I don't even understand where this is coming from.

At every meetup I've been too, the vast majority has been pissed off moderate Democratic baby boomers like me. Now, this would be no big deal, except that I go to meetups in San Francisco, home base for highly-educated liberals and net-heads. If they're not the majority here, where are they the majority?

[PSU84]

6. Sample Selection bias

"I go to meetups in San Francisco, home base for highly-educated liberals and net-heads."

The meet-ups you attend are no doubt a very accurate representation of the political views of Dean supporters in the Bay area who feel strongly enough to attend a meet-up.

[PSU84]

4. Dean's "broad appeal"

"Dean's advantage is bolstered by his strong appeal to the well-educated liberal wing of the party in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nearly half of Dean's Iowa supporters are college graduates and far more describe themselves as liberals (38 percent) than conservatives (17 percent). The Dean supporters are notable not just for the vehemence of their opposition to the Iraq war but also for their support of gay marriage and for their variance from national norms of religious belief. Forty percent of the Dean supporters in New Hampshire, his strongest state, say they seldom or never attend church."

- from David Broder's column in the Washington Post, 12/11/03
www.washingtonpost.com

Forget the South, Dean would be lucky to win any states in the Midwest.

[library_max]

9. Dean's supporters are liberals,

oppose the Iraq war, and support religious tolerance! Oh no! That means that Dean is supported by ... by ... by ... Democrats! How could a thing like that happen?

Dean has never been my favorite candidate, but I'm developing more and more respect for him as a campaigner. Watch what happens if he gets the nomination. Suddenly, his record as governor of Vermont and his credentials as a moderate are going to become much more prominent in his sales pitch.

Which just means he's a smart politician, and we need one of those if we're going to beat Bush.

[Myra]

2. Does anyone have an opinion about Business Week?

I don't read it so I don't know if they're media whores
or a reasonably legit publication.

[SheilaT]

5. Trust me,

Dean is not getting cocky.

[wtmusic]

7. Dean has never been cocky

and the assumption shows a lack of familiarity with the candidate.

[PSU84]

8. You're kidding, right?

Dean's most obvious and least appealing personal characteristic is his arrogance. He's a lot like Bush in that respect.

[Larkspur]

10. Do not judge, lest your candidate be judged

The Pompous Prince General Clark is no stranger to arrogance. He exudes it.

Dean has confidence which the jealous mistake as arrogance. I've met Howard Dean twice there was no hint of arrogance in him at all. He was excited to meet me even though we never knew each other. Howard Dean is definitely a gentleman with us common folks but he's also fighter for us too which the Meadhead Media jackals don't like.

[Kosmos Mariner]

11. Finally, someone says it!

<snip>
Here's a scenario to ponder: Dean comes in second in the Iowa caucuses. He goes on to take first place in the Jan. 27 primary in New Hampshire -- only to find a surging Clark right behind him. The showdown finally happens on Feb. 3, when Clark sets out to ambush Dean in more moderate states such as South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arizona. "The fact that Dean is adamantly against tax cuts could hurt him -- that and his stand on gay marriage," says Susan A. MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida. "Besides, the antiwar thing doesn't play well in the South."



Dr. MacManus was one of my professors at USF, and she is very good, and very well respected. I have been trying to tell everyone that Dean is not going to do very well in Florida, AND this is the most liberal state in the south, by far! She sums it up perfectly. The Clark scenario is what I believe will happen to Dean. Clark will win with more broad based support, while still tapping into the discontent of Bush.


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