Historians offer dismal Iraq forecast

[lligrd]

Historians offer dismal Iraq forecast By CHARLES J. HANLEY, AP Special Correspondent
Sun Jan 21, 1:09 PM ET

To historians and others pondering Iraq, forecasting a final outcome for that sad land is like finding your way through one of its "shamal" sandstorms. You may not know where you're headed, but you know it's going to be dark.

The Middle East historian David Fromkin sees a breakup of the jerry-built nation. Phebe Marr, doyenne of Iraq scholars, sees "distrust and suspicion" too deep to overcome. "Bleak," concludes Baghdad University's Saad al-Hadithi.

"At the moment," said the British historian Niall Ferguson, "a happy ending has a 1-in-100 look about it."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/iraq_the_long_view

[Xipe Totec]

1. Historians offering forecasts?

Ironic, don't you think?

Not that I think they're wrong. On the contrary, I think Iraq is FUBAR.

But the idea of historians looking at the future, rather than the past? :rofl:

[lligrd]

3. Not That Ironic

Many of us here predicted the mess we are in now based upon historical evidence.

"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
George Santayana

[Xipe Totec]

5. Yes, agreed. But we're not historians

That's the only ironic part of it; historians predicting the future....

Analysts? Yes. Forecasters? Yes. but historians?

Don't take me so seriously, I'm just funning with you. :hi:

[lligrd]

6. I Got Your Point

And I certainly wouldn't put all my faith in Historians. Afterall, isn't Gingrich an historian?

[Xipe Totec]

8. Well the newt is a lot of things better left unsaid.

As for REAL historians, they do have a point:

Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it.

We are in Iraq today, because we have a putz instead of a POTUS; a man who is uneducated in all important respects, and who definitely does not know history.

Sad but true.

Any man. Any woman, for that matter, would have done a better job in the White House.

[Journeyman]

13. And those who remember the past are condemned to a life of reruns.

Schopenhauer explained it best: Eadem, sed aliter. History’s motto. The same things differently.

[gratuitous]

14. Bush often says he doesn't pay attention to the polls

He says he's far more interested in history's judgment. Well, the historians are saying (generously, in my opinion) you got a 100-1 shot. I think Bush is facing lottery odds of getting anything positive out of Iraq.

[ohio2007]

16. Yep, kinda like 'certified' weatherman making predictions,

forcasts can always change by the hour,as the wind blows.

[Book Lover]

17. "The supreme purpose of history is a better world"

Who else is better qualified than those who have studied the patterns and cycles of human collective behavior than historians?

[XemaSab]

2. Depends on the timeline, doesn't it?

Every country has good and bad periods. In 1929 what would we have said about the future of the US if we'd known how the years ahead were going to be? :shrug:

[Xipe Totec]

4. 1929 was a fork on the road for our nation

It's not entirely clear that we chose the right path...

FDR preempted and co-opted many ideas from, shall we say, non-capitalists alternative social organizations.

Thus we avoided another civil war.

But the long term effects of this half-measure are still in play, and we don't know the final outcome of that hybrid experiment.

[XemaSab]

7. I'm going to argue that we chose a good path

We avoided another civil war, which would have probably precluded our involvement in WWII and probably resulted in the loss of the allies. We came out of WWII as global leaders and have enjoyed superpower status for the last 55 or so years.

While we're still feeling out the balance between capitalism and a social welfare system, we've been able to avoid the problems of hard communism and hard capitalism.

All in all, it's worked out for us. Up until the last couple years, that is. :(

[Xipe Totec]

9. One of my favorite jokes:

Q: What are the long term implications of the American Revolution?

A: It's too soon to tell...

:hi:

[lligrd]

10. At The Very Least

We've gotten quite a number of good years from it.

[Xipe Totec]

11. No argument there,

That is, of course, if you are white, Anglo Saxon, Protestant.

The rest of us are coming along, slowly but surely. Some ahead, some behind.

But we'll all get there eventually and fulfill the promise made to all of us in the declaration of independence; that all men (and women) are created equal.

[lligrd]

12. Hear Hear

It can definitely still use some improvement.

[XemaSab]

15. LOL... nice...

Sorry, I left my house and wandered downtown. The post office in santa barbara has some amazing WPA-era reliefs celebrating Labor. The only missing elements were the hammer and sickle. :D :D :D

[Xipe Totec]

18. This one comes close,

And it's in San Francisco, I Believe....



Pan-American Unity, 1940, City College of San Francisco

- Diego Rivera