Bush Throws The Dice by John Damien

[Phrogman]

Excellent analysis!



The Fruits of War
If the US went to war with Iran and Syria, what could it hope to accomplish? Regime change is the best case. A new non-Islamic government in Iran would be ideal. Especially a government willing to renounce nuclear power and re-align with US interests. This is fantasy, of course. But they can hope. Indeed, hope has been the central pillar of US Middle East policy for the last five years. What would be more attainable (at least theoretically) would be destruction of Iran’s nuclear program and their removal as a regional player for the next 10 years. Such an outcome would make Syria easy pickings for the Israelis, thus securing Iraq’s flank. A regional war would be averted, the ethnic and religious genies put back in the bottles. Without the supposed foreign support, the Iraqi Sunni insurgency and Shia militias would collapse. A proper strong-man could be installed and the political mess cleaned up. Oil flowing again would pay for reconstruction as intended. Hamas would wither, allowing Israel to impose peace on the Palestinians (on their terms, of course). Lebanon would be stabilized as Hezbollah starved to death without Iranian money. Jordan, also badly in need of stabilization would be saved as the million plus Iraqi refugees were sent home. A de-fanged Iranian government might even be prey to eventual regime change from within.

More important than any of these benefits, the US would gain strategic control of 60% of the world’s oil. Its status as the sole superpower and de-facto empire would be restored. America’s dangerous economic gambles would be rewarded.

The military assets available cannot achieve these goals. There is no combination of military operations that would bring down the Islamic Republic. Regime change, or even the more modest goal of removing Iran as a regional influence are beyond the ability of the US military. A US attack at this point would represent a spectacular roll of the dice. Few of the millions put at risk would welcome such a gamble.

The Result
A US attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran would be foolish, counter-productive and criminal. Iraq is a house on fire. Nobody is in control and nothing can be done to put out the fire. An escalation would represent a spectacular roll of the dice, the result unknowable. The one thing that is certain is that Iran would not be removed from the regional equation. No regime change is likely, or even possible.

More at http://www.ichblog.eu/content/view/133/2/

[CJCRANE]

1. Bush is the Dice Man n/t

[neoblues]

2. Is it "Hope" that's been the central pillar of US Middle East policy...

in the last five (six?) years? Seems to me it's been fantasy.

Worse, it's both reckless fantasy and an effort to provoke chaos (to produce change for change's sake; as though the spread of a regional war would somehow work out to our benefit it in the end).

[teryang]

3. Snake eyes n/t