Francis Fukuyama: The neocons have learned nothing from five years of catastrophe (Guardian)

[Eugene]

The neocons have learned nothing from five years of catastrophe


Their zealous advocacy of the invasion of Iraq may have been a
disaster, but now they want to do it all over again - in Iran

Francis Fukuyama
Wednesday January 31, 2007
The Guardian

The United States today spends approximately as much as the rest of the world combined
on its military establishment. So it is worth pondering why it is that, after nearly four years
of effort, the loss of thousands of American lives, and an outlay of perhaps half-a-trillion
dollars, the US has not succeeded in pacifying a small country of some 24 million people,
much less in leading it to anything that looks remotely like a successful democracy.

-snip-

A second lesson that should have been drawn from the past five years is that preventive
war cannot be the basis of a long-term US nonproliferation strategy. The Bush doctrine
sought to use preventive war against Iraq as a means of raising the perceived cost to
would-be proliferators of approaching the nuclear threshold. Unfortunately, the cost to
the US itself was so high that it taught exactly the opposite lesson: the deterrent effect
of American conventional power is low, and the likelihood of preventive war actually
decreases if a country manages to cross that threshold.

-snip-

The failure to absorb Iraq's lessons has been evident in the neoconservative discussion
of how to deal with Iran's growing regional power, and its nuclear programme. Iran today
constitutes a huge challenge for the US, as well as for America's friends in the Middle
East. Unlike al-Qaida, Iran is a state, deeply rooted historically (unlike Iraq) and flush
with resources as a result of energy price rises. It is ruled by a radical Islamist regime
that - particularly since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election in June 2005 - has turned in a
disturbingly intolerant and aggressive direction.

-snip-

None of these considerations, nor the debacle in Iraq, has prevented certain
neoconservatives from advocating military action against Iran. Some insist that Iran
poses an even greater threat than Iraq, avoiding the fact that their zealous advocacy
of the Iraq invasion is what has destroyed America's credibility and undercut its ability
to take strong measures against Iran.

-snip-

Full article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2002439,00.html

[Union Thug]

1. But this is not the point. The point is that Iraq HAS been successful from their perspective...

So long as BushCo and its affiliates are personally profitting from this debacle, they have succeeded. It's never been about anything else -$$$$$$$$$$$

[CJCRANE]

8. Yes, the academic neocons have been played

for fools. Bushco used their rhetoric but have no real interest in democracy or stability.

[KoKo]

2. Holy COW! Wasn't Francis Fukuyama a Neo-Con himself!

I thought he was an architect of the Bush Doctrine. I'll go Google him now..

[bananas]

3. Yes, he flipped a while back. nt

[Benhurst]

4. Recommended #3

[SusanaMontana41]

5. Number four

Powerful read.

[independentpiney]

6. #5

Very good read

[fooj]

7. KandR