Wednesday, March 07, 2007
We are told that The Hershey Co. has been late responding to globalization.
And what with everyone agreeing as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman summed it up in the title of his best-selling book, that The World is Flat, the all-American chocolate company needs to outsource its production or face the prospect of some future calamity of unknown properties and origin that could threaten its franchise.
But what if all this is wrong?
What if globalization is a short-term phenomenon? What if the world actually turns lumpy? What if the place to manufacture for the American market becomes the United States, something Toyota and other foreign companies are anticipating? What if Hershey outsources its production at the exact moment when Americans have finally had enough of home-grown companies moving their jobs overseas while still expecting Americans to remain loyal customers? What if Hershey can't return to its roots because it destroyed them and there is no "Chocolate Town" to come back to, no chocolate workers around to restore the essence to "the sweetest place on Earth?"
Everyone understands that change is the one constant. And yet so many people assume that the current change is a constant, that the world is flat and will stay flat, that globalization is permanent. That may be the present reality. But it is virtually guaranteed not to be the next reality -- the future.
There are several things at work here. Every time I hear of another plant closing and outsourcing of labor, I think of industrialist Henry Ford, who said one of the best cost-cutting moves he ever made was doubling the pay of Ford workers in 1914 to $5 for an eight-hour day. Combined with improvements in mass production, Ford fulfilled his vow to "democratize the automobile" -- and doubled the company's profit. In the process, he helped build the great American middle class that today's corporate executives are busy dismantling, a consequence of their inability to see beyond next quarter's financial statement, their lack of vision and absence of worthy goals beyond themselves and the corporation.
If corporations keep downsizing the middle class, who is going to purchase their goods? Can we maintain a viable middle class based on selling each other services, entertainment, gambling, trucking and other nonmanufacturing enterprises? I have my doubts.
Critical to the globalization of production is cheap energy. But how long can that last? Indeed, it could be history by the time Hershey has its planned Monterrey, Mexico, production plant up and running a few years hence. Many Americans, including corporate executives, may think cheap energy is a birthright, but oil is limited by geology and technology. And while we are getting better at extracting it from existing formations and from deep-water sites once thought unreachable, our appetite for oil is on the cusp of outpacing the world's capacity to produce additional petroleum product, which heralds the end of cheap oil.
When that occurs, and there are knowledgeable individuals who believe the production of what is known as "conventional oil" has peaked, or will before the decade is out, it will soon become clear that the most cost-effective location for producing for the American market is America. WHY DO THE executives at Toyota and Honda understand this, both at the level of product development and manufacturing? This suggests that the one area American companies should be looking to outsource is management. Or at least the management that can no longer figure out how to pay American workers a living wage and still make a respectable profit.
http://www.pennlive.com/columns/patriotnews/field/index.ssf?/base/columnists/1173223503127670.xml&coll=1