He's buying up their obligations from IMF and such:
http://www.pogge.ca/archives/001498.shtmlPeace, order and good government, eh?
Who promised you democracy would be easy?
March 02, 2007
Chavez Sidelining the IMF in Latin America
It’s interesting in general how greatly IMF influence has waned over the last few years. I don’t really understand it, although there are a few pointers. The news seems to have generally gotten around after the Asian meltdown and events like the Argentina troubles that IMF funding is a cure worse than the disease—not only for the countries involved, but often for the politicians leading those countries. And I’ve gotten the impression that there’s an awful lot of investment money splashing around these days, so countries haven’t had to go to the “lender of last resort” because there are plenty of other lenders.
But it seems that nowhere has the IMF’s influence disappeared so entirely as in Latin America, in good part because Hugo Chavez has been using oil money to buy bonds and otherwise lend (at much lower interest rates than the IMF from what I’ve heard) to countries in the region, allowing them to pay off IMF debt, substituting lower-interest debt to Venezuela. The effect has been dramatic, according to this article:
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is squeezing the International Monetary Fund out of Latin America, the region that once accounted for most of its business. IMF lending in the area has fallen to $50 million, or less than 1 percent of its global portfolio, compared with 80 percent in 2005. Meanwhile, Chavez has used his oil wealth to lend $2.5 billion to Argentina, offer $1.5 billion to Bolivia and hold $500 million out to Ecuador.
It took me a moment to process that—down to 1% of IMF lending from 80%, I got that immediately. But I didn’t at first register that this wipeout happened in one year! It seems as if Chavez, with his ambitious regional economic plans, concluded that the IMF would be a major force blocking those plans, and simply took them out. Say what you want about the man, he has a strong sense of strategy.
A US spokesperson objected,
“Chavez is at grave risk of running out of money,” said Truman, who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
The article notes that Chavez is running a deficit. But Venezuela’s debt is around 25-30% of GDP (which is to say, much lower than ours or the US’). And these actions aren’t simply giving away money, either; while generally lower-interest than IMF loans (which are often very high-interest indeed) they are still loans or bond purchases—that is to say, money making investments. In any case, to some extent it doesn’t matter if he can’t keep it up—the IMF doesn’t have any more lending to replace. That job is done; arguably, rather than the IMF having political influence on the region as a lender, it is now Venezuela which inherits that influence (although hopefully it will be wielded in less coercive ways). Mind you, one thing that should be kept in mind is that all this doesn’t mention the World Bank, which I believe actually lends much more money than the IMF, although its reputation is not quite as coercive.
Meanwhile, Venezuela’s economy continues to hum along. Economic growth was at 10% last year even though the oil sector actually declined slightly, and unemployment went down, while employment shifted slightly from the informal towards the formal sector.
Posted by Purple Library Guy at March 2, 2007 01:59 PM